Top MLB DFS Plays 7/9 | One Final Monster Friday Slate Before the All-Star Break!

July 09, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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With the MLB All-Star Break looming, we’ll be getting one final massive Friday slate before the hiatus. I have to say, in all my years of playing MLB DFS, I cannot recall a slate this big with such horribly priced pitching options. Some of the DraftKings pricing is particularly egregious. A $10,000 Taylor Widener coming off the IL and facing the Dodgers? Yeah… okay. No. A $9,500 Marco Gonzales who has scored over 20 DKFP ONCE all season and will be going up against the Los Angeles Ohtani's? Pass. It seems like those salary algorithms are in need of some fine tuning.

A bonus about today’s games is that we’ll have very little to worry about as far as weather is concerned. There are a couple spots where a delay is at least a possibility, but I would be surprised if we see any kind of postponement scenario this evening.

Also, real quick, if you guys get bored during the All-Star Break or get a DFS itch that needs to be scratched, feel free to come try out some PGA DFS next week for the Open Championship (aka the British Open). There will be some massive prize pools and a variety of unique contests. The newsletter for that tournament will be out on Tuesday and I’ll be around in LineStar chat, along with some other PGA veterans, if anyone has any questions.

Alright, let’s limber up and dive into this MLB slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We just have a few situations today where rain could move over some ballparks and lead to a delay. That puts a bit more risk on starting pitchers, but bats should be completely safe. Any scenario where a postponement would be necessary looks like a minuscule possibility at this time.

CWS @ BAL (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Rain chances sit at around 20% throughout this game. A delay is possible, not likely.

PIT @ NYM (7:10 ER, 7.5 O/U): The tropical storm has left the area but some regular thunderstorms could be around the ballpark which brings in some delay risk. It’s a lower-end possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

PHI @ BOS (7:10 ET, 11 O/U): Boston will also have a low-end chance of getting hit by some passing showers. Not a ton of risk here, but just be aware of the outside chance of a delay happening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Taijuan Walker (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. PIT

Walker is going to have to get a bit fortunate in the strikeout department because, as bad as the Pirates offense has been this season, they don’t strikeout very much. Their 22.4% kRate vs. RHPs is the 5th lowest in the league. However, their .289 wOBA and .124 ISO both rank dead last and their 82 wRC+ is better than only the D-Backs and Rockies. There is plenty to like about Walker tonight, especially since he is stepping on the mound at home at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. In seven home starts this season (41.1 IP), Walker has an impressive 1.52 ERA with a 3.50 xFIP, 28.8% kRate, 0.90 WHIP, .177 opp AVG, and .222 opp wOBA. He’s also only surrendered one home run in those games, equating to a 0.22 HR/9 Rate. That will be another bonus for Walker, given the match-up with Pittsburgh who has hit the fewest HRs vs. RHPs this season. The Mets come in as the second-heaviest favorite on the slate with -200 ML odds and the Pirates 3.3 implied run total is the lowest on the slate. Walker should be very popular tonight and makes for a strong cash game option. If you’re not a believer in his K upside in this match-up, I could see an argument to be made for fading him in GPPs.

Kenta Maeda (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DET

Maeda is coming off of his best performance of the season where he threw six two-hit innings on 97 pitches against Kansas City, allowing zero runs and striking out 10 hitters. He looked much more like the pitcher we saw last season, in which he dominated nearly every match-up. The Tigers do scare me a bit because their bats have been better than most people would like to believe. They do still offer up plenty of strikeouts, however, and their 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs is the second-highest in the league. Maeda has only started three games at home this season (13.2 IP) but if we look at his numbers at home going back to the start of the 2020 season, he has posted some incredible results: 46.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 32.0% kRate, .175 opp AVG, .209 opp wOBA. Of course, he hasn’t looked like the same pitcher that accounted for a lot of those figures back in 2020, but it does seem like he has an affinity for pitching in a home environment. At these low $7k prices, I would say he deserves plenty of consideration.

Alek Manoah (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $10.3k | @ TB

Zach Thompson (RHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. ATL

I’m pointing out both of these guys real quick as “DraftKings preferred” options. On FanDuel, I’d say look to these two only as contrarian GPP plays considering Manoah is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, Thompson the third-most. Both Manoah and Thompson are posting some strong numbers in their rookie season and have shown some great strikeout stuff -- Manoah 29.1% kRate, Thompson 32.0% kRate. Their match-ups with the Rays and Braves are not exactly easy ones, but both of those teams also rank inside the top 10 in terms of strikeout rate versus RHPs -- TB 26.2% (4th highest), ATL 25.1% (8th highest). Tropicana Field and Marlins Park are also two very pitcher-friendly ballparks, which will be another positive for these guys.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  There are plenty of strong stack options to choose from today and ownership should be spread out fairly evenly on this monstrous 14-game slate. However, if I had to choose certain offenses to go overweight on, I’d be looking towards the Minnesota Twins, the Chicago White Sox, and the San Diego Padres.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Some of these Angels bats have been scorching hot lately and they’ve led the league over the last week with a .373 wOBA and 139 wRC+. They’ve also rated out on the season as a top offense against southpaw pitching. They check-in at 3rd with a 113 wRC+ and a .355 wOBA while also striking out at the third-lowest rate (21.4%). The only real negative I have to point out about the Angels today is their tendency to struggle in road games. At home this season, they’re averaging 5.50 runs/gm (4th most) and a 123 wRC+ (1st). However, on the road, they’re plating just 4.30 runs/gm (16th) with a 93 wRC+ (13th). BUT, they’ll get to go up against Marco Gonzales who has been getting smoked for much of the season. He leads all pitchers with a 2.29 HR/9 Rate and 12.1% Barrel%. He also holds a slate-high expected wOBA of .430! The Mariners do have a pretty decent bullpen and T-Mobile Park is not a great hitter’s park by any means. But I still like the potential in these Angels bats today and I would expect them to have some decently low ownership.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

Both LA teams get a nod from me today and, like many West Coast offenses often do, I believe the Dodgers will be another elite offense that flies a little under the radar this evening. They’ll take on Taylor Widener who probably won’t be throwing too deep into this game. Widener hasn’t started a game since May 23rd (which was his first start in a month at that point) after suffering a groin injury that landed him an extended stay on the IL. I assume his pitch count will be somewhere around 50-60 throws. That should leave most innings up to the D-Backs bullpen, which is a very bad unit. Over the last month, the Arizona bullpen has a league-worst 6.45 ERA along with a 5.42 xFIP and they’re stranding just 59.8% of base runners. Not good. The Dodgers tend to be a very solid offense at home where they rank 4th with a 118 wRC+ this season. They’re still without Corey Seager but are otherwise at full strength. This is their first home game since June 29th and with the All-Star Break around the corner, expect a rowdy-packed house in Dodger Stadium tonight.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

KC bats should be extremely low owned tonight despite a quality match-up with an erratic Triston McKenzie who was just recalled from the minor leagues. In his 42.1 IP in the MLB this season, McKenzie has been giving up a massive amount of hard contact (51.6%) and a ton of fly balls (57.8%) which has led to a high 1.86 HR/9 Rate. He has given up more power to RHBs (.203 ISO, 2.05 HR/9) but more bases to LHBs (1.87 WHIP, .374 wOBA) which may be something to consider when building any Royals stack.

One-Off Bats ☝️

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | Brad Keller (RHP), KC

2B/OF/SS Leury Garcia | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/3B/OF Luis Arraez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Adam Engel | DK: $3k, FD: $2k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Travis Jankowski | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

I’m going for a value bomb today with the ultra-affordable Trevor Larnach who will be hitting in the heart of the order for the Twins today. Larnach has blasted four homers versus RHPs in his last 20 games and has produced a .446 wOBA and .311 ISO in that stretch. His 93.5 mph average exit velocity versus RHPs over the last two weeks puts him in the 90th percentile of hitters as well. Matt Manning doesn’t have many innings pitched at the MLB level this season, but things have not been going well for the guy. Across the 39 LHBs he has faced, he is giving up a .369 wOBA and .212 ISO while posting a 6.36 xFIP. Manning may not pitch too deep into this game, which would force a bad Tigers bullpen to eat up a lot of innings. I believe we could see a few Twins homers in this one.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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