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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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We have a modest seven game main slate on deck this evening. As far as smaller slates go, this is one that is heavily saturated with a horde of strong starting pitchers and that is clearly reflected in today’s Vegas run totals. Out of 14 teams, ten currently have an implied team total of 4.5 runs or fewer. We also will get a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel to cap off the night as Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish will face off out in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Unfortunately, we’ll also have to keep an eye on two or three ballparks that could see their hosted game impacted by weather. The leftovers from Tropical Storm Elsa are rolling up the East Coast which will be putting a couple games in noticeable jeopardy. So, as a reminder, if there are no early postponements announced, check-in on these games closer to lock to see exactly how much risk will be involved. I got a later start than I would’ve liked to on today’s newsletter so let’s go ahead and jump into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

🚨TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 11 O/U):🚨 Game #1 that TS Elsa will be threatening tonight. There is a chance Baltimore will avoid the worst of the storms and get a clean window to play a full game, but it’s not incredibly likely. If they do play, 10+ mph winds will be blowing out to LF and, unsurprisingly, this match-up once again carries the highest total on the slate.

🚨PIT @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U):🚨 Rain will be in the general area around the first pitch before those Elsa leftovers move through later in the game. I currently would not view this game as a safe bet to play either... but it's possible they do.

KC @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Enough rain will be around to where a late start or a delay at some point is possible. The chance of an in-game delay makes starting pitchers risky, but bats *should* be safe since an outright postponement seems unlikely at this time.

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the upper-60s with winds blowing in from LF at 10+ mph. The pitchers get a little bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.9k | @ SD

It’s a tough call on who to highlight in this pitcher’s duel between Scherzer and Darvish. Ultimately, Mad Max gets the nod from me despite the difficult match-up and Washington being small +130 underdogs. He’s just such a steady source of production and you can nearly bet the house that he’s going to throw somewhere in the close vicinity of 100 pitches while notching at least seven strikeouts, with 10+ K potential. Scherzer’s 35.5% kRate and 16.7% Swinging Strike Rate are easily the top marks on the slate along with his elite 2.10 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, and 0.85 WHIP. He does have a high 51.7% Fly Ball Rate but that will pose less of a risk given the fact that he’ll be getting a park upgrade (Petco Park #3 most pitcher-friendly park). The Padres have been cruising on offense lately and their 135 wRC+ and .369 wOBA vs. RHPs over the last two weeks ranks 3rd in the MLB. They’re also only striking out 19.8% of the time in that span (vs. righties). However, in 117 plate appearances against Scherzer, the current Padres roster has just a .225 AVG, .283 wOBA, and they’ve struck out 37.5% of the time.

Tyler Mahle (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.9k | @ MIL

Playing Mahle when he’s on the road has been an overall successful strategy this season. Here are his home/road splits from this year:

Home: 35.2 IP, 6.06 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 28.8% kRate, .363 opp wOBA, 2.27 HR/9

Away: 53.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 30.7% kRate, .257 opp wOBA, 0.50 HR/9

Mahle has certainly been unlucky at home, evidenced by his home xFIP being nearly three runs lower than his ERA. But that’s no real surprise given his home is the very hitter-friendly Great American ‘Smallpark’. It’s pretty common to see a bunch of home runs fly out in Cincy. Today he’ll look to slow down a Brewers team that, overall, has been very hot recently (132 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 5th) but has regressed a bit after scoring three runs or fewer in three of their last four (though, their two games yesterday were of course only seven innings apiece). Whichever way ya look at it, Mahle would appear to be a worthy mid-range play today and he had his best fantasy outing of the season back on June 16th against this same Brewers team when he threw six innings on 107 pitches, allowed one run on three hits, and struck out TWELVE batters en route to a 2-1 win -- good for 35.3 DKFP,/61 FDFP. So, that gives you an idea of where his ceiling lies against this strikeout-heavy Milwaukee offense.

Zach Eflin (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ CHC

Eflin will make for more of a GPP play because, as we saw with Zack Wheeler yesterday, chasing fantasy points by using pitchers against the Cubs just because they strike out a ton can sometimes backfire. But Ks are king when it comes to pitcher fantasy scoring so it’s worth taking the risk. The Cubs and their 26.8% kRate vs. RHPs rank as the highest kRate in the league -- over the last month they’ve boosted that up to a 30.4% kRate. Eflin isn’t a huge strikeout guy (22.3% kRate) but that can, of course, be boosted up by his match-up today and we have seen him throw 7+ Ks in six of his 16 starts… so eight or nine strikeouts are in his wheelhouse today. Eflin is also very proficient at not giving up free bases and his low, low 3.3% Walk Rate is the second-best mark in the league among starting pitchers (just ahead of deGrom’s 3.4% BB%). Chicago is also dealing with injuries to a couple of key players and they may be without Kris Bryant and Javy Baez this evening. Winds will also be blowing in at 10+ mph at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field today, so pitchers get a bump here.

DK Preferred: Alek Manoah (RHP) | DK: $6.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ BAL

I’m not sure why DK priced Manoah at $6,800, but if that game avoids a postponement, he’s easily the top value option of the slate as the 11th most expensive pitching option. For comparison, his $10,300 salary on FD slots him in at 3rd on the pricing hierarchy, just behind Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer. In my opinion, considering Manoah has been good but not incredible, he should be somewhere in the high-$8k to low-$9k range. But, again, keep an eye on the weather in Baltimore.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  I’m stuck on repeat at this point but, once again, the Toronto Blue Jays will be the most appealing stack of the day (assuming the game doesn’t get washed out).

Detroit Tigers vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

Ya know it’s a sort of odd slate when the Tigers make this section but they’ve been an underrated offense for a little while now and will get the opportunity to go up against a struggling 38-year-old JA Happ today. If you’ve been stacking Detroit recently, you’ve probably made some decent profit from doing so. Since June 28th, they’ve scored the 4th most runs in the league and rank 6th with a 125 wRC+. They’ve been particularly effective against lefty pitchers lately as well and have a huge 144 wRC+ and .382 wOBA versus southpaws over the last two weeks. Happ has been atrocious over the last month-plus. In his last six starts going back to June 3rd (29.0 IP), Happ has racked up a 7.45 ERA, 5.55 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, 3.40 HR/9, a .357 opp AVG, and a .456 opp wOBA. Oof. Once Happ is retired from the mound, the Tigers will face a very mediocre Twins bullpen that checks in essentially in the middle of the league in efficiency this season.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Possible DET@MIN game stack, anyone? Tarik Skubal has shown some quality stuff over the last couple of months but he still can have the tendency to get blown up by the long ball, and his 1.87 HR/9 Rate will check in as the 4th highest mark among today’s starters. The Twins are also no slouches against lefty pitching. They’ve hit more HRs off of southpaws (42) than any other team in the league and rank inside the top 10 offenses in batting average, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs in both the short term and long term. They’ll also get some at-bats against Detroit’s bottom 10 bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies (LHBs Preferred) vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

I could see Bryce Harper being a fairly popular one-off play but, other than him, I doubt much ownership will land on Philly bats today. The left-handed bats are particularly appealing here against Alzolay. While Alzolay is fantastic in righty-on-righty match-ups (.237 wOBA, .106 ISO, 0.97 WHIP, 2.68 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 0.67 HR/9), he’s been pretty awful against left-handed hitters (.389 wOBA, .360 ISO (!!!), 1.34 WHIP, 6.75 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, 3.66 HR/9). The power he is giving up to LHBs is massive and, even with those winds blowing in at Wrigley, it could still lead to some home runs. The Phillies are rolling out five lefties in the lineup today (Harper, Miller, Gregorius, Herrera, Jankowski) and they’re all in play in my book.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

C/OF Eric Haase | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs, JA Happ (LHP), MIN

2B/OF Brad Miller | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Travis Jankowski | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

OF Michael A. Taylor | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Just like we do with guys like Vlad Jr., Ohtani, Acuna Jr., and Tatis Jr., when a power hitter like Cruz goes more than a few games without a homer, it’s time to find the “HE’S DUE” button and smash it. After hitting eight HRs over the last month and 18 on the year, Cruz is has gone five games without a dinger, so you know what to do. He hits the hell out of lefties (.387 AVG, 193 wRC+) and has equal power against both RHPs (.257 ISO) and LHPs (.258 ISO). Skubal has surrendered a .238 ISO and 25 HRs to RHBs this season, which has led to a lofty 2.17 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. Skubal has been pitching better in general lately, but even if Cruz doesn’t go yard off of him, he’ll have a good shot to do so against a Detroit bullpen arm.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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