Top MLB DFS Plays 7/7 | Navigating a Tricky Wednesday Slate

July 07, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Depending on which site you play on, today’s main slate will feature either eight (FD) or nine (DK) games. The additional match-up on DraftKings is simply the second game of the Brewers/Mets doubleheader -- and remember, that will only be a seven-inning game! My condolences to anyone who got burned by deGrom and the Mets yesterday! The forecast in New York looked somewhat risky earlier in the day but proceeded to get sketchier closer to the first pitch. Of course, ultimately it was announced the game would start in a delay, and then it was postponed altogether shortly after. I’m preaching to the choir here, but situations like that are a good reminder to stay vigilant closer to lock when it comes to these potentially risky weather games. Sometimes it’s worth the risk to roster players when the forecast is “iffy” and it seems like the vast majority of DFS players are fading it. It’s a very common occurrence for an at-risk game to ultimately play with little to no issues. But no one likes to get blindsided by a postponement when they didn’t even realize that was a possible outcome.

Alright, moving on to today… I have to say, I’m not a huge fan of this slate at first glance. Perhaps my opinion will change later on but I just have a feeling this one will be a bit ugly. But, hey, someone still has to bink these GPPs and win some cash, so let’s try to make that happen for the LineStar crew!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 11 O/U): Lower-end chance for a storm to roll over the ballpark from a nearby system. A delay is possible, a postponement is very unlikely. This stands out as the best hitting environment of the day with temps around 90 degrees and winds blowing out to LF around 10 mph.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET, O/U TBD): Game two of the doubleheader and only on the DraftKings main slate. Hitting conditions will be solid -- hot, humid, light winds blowing out. But rain will also be in the area, bringing up the possibility of some sort of weather delay. I’m leaning towards just avoiding this game on DK. The pitchers aren’t really appealing, especially with the current possibility of an in-game delay. And, of course, the offensive upside takes a hit with this being a seven-inning game.

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET, 7 O/U): Well, the Wrigley Field Home Run Derby was fun while it lasted the last couple days. Temperatures in Chicago will cool off drastically to around 70 degrees and winds will now be blowing in from LF at 10 mph. The real issue here, however, is the likelihood of soggy weather. Notable rain chances will be present for the entirety of this game, so a delay or outright postponement are both on the table. Definitely check on the status of this game closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Garcia (RHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.7k | vs. OAK

If the rain looks like it will hold off in Chicago, by all means, Zack Wheeler ($10.3k/$11.2k) would be an excellent pitcher to spend up on with 10+ K potential against the strikeout prone Cubs. Aside from Wheeler, the pitching landscape is a bit of a headache to figure out today but let’s start off with Luis Garcia.

In my mind, Garcia is a touch overpriced on both DK and FD, but that’ll be the cost you have to pay if you want one of the “safer” pitchers on this slate. The Oakland bats did tag up Framber Valdez pretty good last night but, in general, they’ve been struggling as of late. Over the last two weeks, their 72 wRC+ ranks last in the MLB and their 86 wRC+ vs. RHPs checks in at 24th in that span. They’re hitting .229 with a .291 wOBA against right-handed pitching in this recent two-week stretch as well. Garcia posted a solid enough game against Oakland back on May 20th when he surrendered two runs on three hits across five innings (92 pitches) while striking out seven A’s hitters en route to a winning performance. He’s been a bit more efficient at home, where he has posted a 2.58 ERA across 45.1 IP along with a 3.81 xFIP, 28.0% kRate, and 1.04 WHIP. Again, you are paying a premium here on a guy who hasn’t shown insanely high upside. But, in general, Garcia will find himself in one of the better spots among today’s starting pitchers.

Alex Wood (LHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. STL

Wood stands out as a preferred mid-range SP target today and I’d expect a lot of ownership to land on him, especially if the Chicago forecast makes Zack Wheeler too risky of an option. Against LHPs on the road this season, St. Louis is hitting just .191 (ranks dead last) with a low .285 wOBA (27th) and 79 wRC+ (27th). Alex Wood is the cheapest starting pitcher on this slate who has above a 25% kRate and that is accompanied by a solid 3.89 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, and a 55% Ground Ball Rate. He hasn’t been as consistent over the last month or so, as he’s had three solid starts and three poor starts. But this is an exploitable match-up in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark. The Giants will also be the second-heaviest favorite of the slate with -185 moneyline odds.

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.5k | @ ARI

The value tier is littered with a bunch of openers, long relievers, and recent call-ups with an unproven track record and uncertain pitch counts (oh, and Matt Harvey). So, spending down does not seem like a wise proposition today. If there is one cheap pitcher who could **possibly** end the day with around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP, Senzatela would seem to be that guy. Senzatela has not been great by any means, but he does at least provide the potential to pitch deep into games and possibly put himself in line for a win. In his last six games, he’s pitched at least six full innings in five of them. In that same stretch, he has a lackluster 4.06 ERA but a not-so-terrible 3.64 xFIP and 1.33 WHIP. He’s only posting a 17.9% kRate in that span as well, but he has also only walked 3.1% of batters faced. The real hope here is that he can take advantage of a match-up against a Diamondbacks offense that has been awful far more than they’ve been… uh, not awful. Against RHPs this season, they’re hitting .227, and their 80 wRC+ ranks second-to-last. This game does have a moderately high total of 9.5 implied runs, but it’s basically a pick ‘em with both teams currently holding -110 odds to win. Senzatela will obviously be a risky option, but that’s just the nature of this slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  No surprise here. Despite underperforming yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays should be on basically everyone’s radar as they face off with the gas can that is Matt Harvey yet again for the third time in his last four starts. Great hitter’s park, great hitting weather, poor opposing starting pitcher. There’s not much more to it than that!

San Francisco Giants vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

The Giants have bolstered a 131 wRC+ versus RHPs at home this year, which ranks first overall in the league. Johan Oviedo is a fringe back-of-the-rotation starter, at best, and he’s given no significant reasons to *not* stack against him. In 73.2 IP in the MLB, Oviedo has accrued a 5.25 ERA, 5.41 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, and he’s allowed a 40.6% HardHit%. He’s been particularly awful in his five starts on the road this season where he has accumulated a 6.20 ERA, 6.68 xFIP, 2.02 WHIP, while striking out just 10.8% of hitters and walking 15.7% of ‘em. Oviedo will be supported by a Cardinals bullpen whose 4.97 xFIP this year ranks dead last in the MLB.

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Padres offer up some appealing stack potential tonight as they go up against Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been quite generous with giving up the long ball this season, posting a 1.75 HR/9 Rate. He’s also another pitcher who has shown some poor splits on the road. He’s winless (0-4) in seven road starts (35.2 IP) with a 6.56 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 2.02 HR/9, and a .365 opp wOBA. Corbin has been solid in lefty-on-lefty match-ups, so the right-handed bats of Tatis Jr., Machado, Pham, and Myers will be the stand-out targets tonight. I wouldn’t completely rule out the lefty bats either (Cronenworth, Grisham, Hosmer) as they’ll get some ABs against a Nats bullpen that may be a bit fatigued after handling a lofty workload in recent games.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

The O’s make an appearance in this section on back-to-back days. Do I believe they’ll fly way under the radar? Not necessarily. But I do believe most people will be hesitant to stack bats against Ryu, who is well-known as someone who has been a very good pitcher for many years now. However, something is definitely ‘off’ with him lately. In his last six starts (35.1 IP), Ryu has racked up a 5.35 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 2.02 HR/9 Rate, and a .346 opp wOBA while striking out 10.7% of batters and walking 8.7%. As they showed last night against Steven Matz, the O’s can hit lefty pitching well, especially at home where their 119 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 4th overall. Once again, none of these bats are going to eat up much salary and this game easily has the best hitting environment on the slate.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Lamonte Wade Jr. | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

2B/SS Alcides Escobar | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Chris Paddock (RHP), SD

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin has surrendered eight home runs on the road this season. All eight have been launched over the fence by right-handed hitters across 117 RHBs faced and 25.1 total innings (2.84 HR/9 Rate). Machado has struggled to hit lefty pitching for a good portion of this season, but he is beginning to right that ship. Since June 1st, Machado has posted a .333 AVG, .480 wOBA, .417 ISO, and a 209 wRC+ vs. LHPs behind 47.4% Hard Contact and a 57.9% Fly Ball Rate. Petco Park isn’t exactly a great venue for home runs, but Machado does have eight HRs in 42 home games this season, four of which came against LHPs in only 33 at-bats.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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