Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

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Happy Sunday! The last game before the All-Star break and do we have an ugly slate or what today? The top half of the pitching options is fine with several studs to choose from. But the bottom half is pretty ugly and that’s putting it nicely. As of now there are an incredible 12 teams on this slate with an implied total of 4.5 or better. Three of those teams have an implied total of six runs or better and there are a couple others that could get there before lock. We are also missing info on two games! Offense will be plenty today. I wouldn’t even consider ownership on stacks in tournaments, there are just too many good options for it to be an issue. Just find your spots and stick to them. This should be a high scoring slate with plenty of fireworks to cap off the end of the first half of the 2019 season. Here’s a look at all the Vegas lines:

The weather is very, very quiet today. Almost no chance of rain anywhere. There’s a few games over 80 degrees. A couple of parks have some projected winds blowing out. The impact should be low but if I had to choose one game to call out it would be in Detroit where it will be close to 80 degrees at first pitch with double-digit winds blowing out.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin, WAS | DK: $10.9K, FD: $10.5K | LHP | vs. KC Royals

Corbin went through a really rough span from May 20th through June 11th. In five starts he went 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA (4.83 SIERA), 1.61 WHIP, and only 25 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched. He gave up a total of 24 runs (20 earned) and allowed 2.03 HR/9 during that stretch. His last three starts have gone significantly better going 2-1 while allowing only one earned run in each start and striking out 8,9, and 7. Granted, two of those starts were against Miami so take that for what it’s worth. Overall, his numbers this season are worthy of someone we are looking to spend up on. He has a 3.91 SIERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 31% strikeouts. Needless to say, he’s been a little inconsistent this year which adds more risk than we’d like when looking in this price range. However, his match up today helps make up for the uncertainly against a Royals team that is 27th in baseball against left-handed pitching including just a .289 wOBA, .126 ISO, and striking out 23.9% of the time. Looking at the other pitchers in this price range Morton has been the most consistent but has a difficult task against the Yankees. Nola seems like he’s putting his season back together again but similar to Corbin he’s been wildly inconsistent until just recently. The same can be said for both Zach Wheeler and Trevor Bauer as well. From a floor/ceiling perspective today, Corbin makes the most sense.

David Price, BOS | DK: $9.8K, FD: $9.1K | LHP | vs. Detroit Tigers

In a season filled with question marks in Boston (mostly around the bullpen) David Price has continued to do his job. He’s now 6-2 on the season and hasn’t lost a start since April 27th (granted he had one horrendous start against the Rangers in there where he got pulled after 1.1 innings but Boston managed to come back and get him off the hook). He faced some tough opponents during that span as well including the Rays (twice), the Astros, the Yankees, and the Twins. All top offenses against left-handed pitching. Today, he’ll get a much weaker opponent in Detroit who ranks just ahead of the aforementioned Kansas City Royals against lefties this season. The Tigers have a .307 wOBA, a .150 ISO, and strikeout 25.4% of the time. Price has a 3.67 SIERA which is aligned with his 3.33 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP, 25.8% strikeout rate, and only 4.4% walks. He’s forcing 48.9% ground balls and allowing just a .218 wOBA to lefties and a .291 wOBA to righties. Unsurprisingly (even before I mention that Gregory Soto is on the hill for Detroit today) Boston and Price are massive favorites at -259 and the Tigers have one of the lowest implied totals on the board at just 3.8 runs.

Jose Urquidy, HOU | DK: $6K, FD: $5.6K | RHP | vs. Los Angeles Angels

I’ve read some interesting reports about Uriquidy and how he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2016 and is starting to see his velocity pick up again. Anyone who starts jumping through the ranks of the Houston system, especially as a pitcher, automatically gets my attention. According to Baseball America, when Uriquidy returned to the mound following his surgery in 2018 and had a solid four-pitch mix with a fastball between 89-92 mph. Just a few starts into the 2019 season, his fastball has been touching 97 mph. He was the Opening Day starter for Double-A Corpus Christi and struck out 40 to just five walks in 33 innings before quickly being promoted. In Triple-A he’s 3-1 in seven starts with a 3.68 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and 37% strikeouts to just 5.8% walks. With Forest Whitley suddenly struggling in Triple-A with a 10.48 ERA and seven home runs allowed in just 22.1 innings it makes sense that Uriquidy would be called on for a spot start here instead. The upside here is very real and even more intriguing is the price tag it comes with but understand the risk here is also very real as we are drawing a lot of conclusions from small samples at the Double and Triple-A levels.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Asher Wojciechowski, BAL (RHP)

Who the hell is Asher Wojciechowski? Anyone? No? Didn’t think so. Of all the bad pitching on this slate and all the top offenses available to us it should be pretty telling that the highest implied total on the board today, at a ridiculous 6.4 runs, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays of all teams. Wojciechowski was acquired by Baltimore from Cleveland recently and is apparently going to stick in the rotation for the rest of the season. He’s thrown 78.2 innings in the majors between a brief stint for the Astros in 2015 and again for the Reds in 2017. He has a 6.44 ERA (yikes) though he does average slightly better than a strikeout per inning. The Blue Jays lineup is largely underwhelming but there is plenty to be intrigued about in this match up. Smoak (.385 wOBA, .284 ISO, 51.8% hard contact vs RHP), Galvis (.334 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP), Vlad Jr (.332 wOBA, .184 ISO vs RHP), and Gurriel Jr (.362 wOBA, .248 ISO vs RHP) are priorities. Biggio (.387 wOBA, .319 ISO – small sample) and Sogard (.360 wOBA) are in play as well.

Cleveland Indians vs. Tyler Mahle, CIN (RHP)

I know I told you not to worry about ownership but this one could fly under the radar today. I expected the implied total to be higher than it is and with so many teams over five or even six a 4.7 doesn’t seem as appealing (although it would be excellent on a typical slate). This is a massive park shift in favor of the Indians’ offense. They are also very left-handed heavy with several switch hitters in their lineup and Tyler Mahle (how do I put this nicely?) is a dumpster fire against left-handed hitters. He owns a 5.21 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and only 19.2% strikeouts against lefties. He’s also allowing 42.6% fly balls and 40% hard contact to that side of the plate. Santana (.405 wOBA, .284 ISO), Lindor (.366 wOBA, .225 ISO), Ramirez (his 2019 numbers are bad but his career numbers are outstanding just need to trust the ceiling here despite the lower than usual floor this season), Kipnis (.327 wOBA), and Naquin (.327 wOBA, .184 ISO) are all at the top of my list. Perez, assuming he starts, has upside with a .231 ISO. Bauers also has some appeal despite below average numbers.

Houston Astros vs. Jose Suarez, LAA (LHP)

The Astros were a bit underwhelming last night against a lefty but I’m going right back to the well today against Jose Suarez. In five starts, Suarez is 2-1 with a 4.95 SIERA and 1.44 WHIP. He’s allowed at least one home run in each start which has resulted in 2.52 HR/9. A huge red flag is his massive 56.3% fly ball rate and 36.6% hard contact allowed. All of this spells trouble against this Houston lineup. Once again, Altuve is the priority with his 1.131 OPS, .454 wOBA, and .391 ISO against left-handed pitching. Springer (.961 OPS, .395 wOBA, .309 ISO) and Bregman (.915 OPS, .373 wOBA, .309 ISO) are both in great spots. Alvarez (42.9% hard contact) had a big night yesterday going 2-4 with a double and an RBI. Brantley (.376 wOBA) got the night off yesterday due to a hamstring issue but was available off the bench and is considered day-to-day so it doesn’t sound serious. I won’t be surprised to see him back in there tonight. The Astros have an implied total of 5.9 runs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mike Brosseau, TB | DK: $2.2K, FD: $2.6K | 2B/3B | vs. James Paxton, NYY

Purely based on price we should have Brosseau in our back pocket (particularly on DraftKings) during roster construction today. He could be a great cash game option because it won’t take much to return value on this salary. I’m not as interested in tournaments given a lower ceiling (though he does have two double-digit fantasy performances in his last four games) but you could use him in a pinch if it made everything else on your roster fit. He’s jumped around the lineup order batting sixth, fifth, and eighth this week so hard to say for sure where he will end up. Regardless, he’s showing enough so far (.842 wOBA+ISO) for him to be in consideration at this price point.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K | OF | vs. Ivan Nova, CWS

If you’ve been reading my articles on here for any amount of time you know that I love targeting Ivan Nova with left-handed hitting. Nova is brutal against lefties. There’s no other way to say it. He has a 5.06 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and only 13.5% strikeouts this season. For his career, he has a 14.5% strikeout rate against lefties. Schwarber has a .604 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts against lefties. He’s also faced Nova 19 times and has two home runs, four RBI, and 2.4 FP/PA in those appearances.

Xander Bogaerts, BOS | DK: $5K, FD: $4.2K | SS | vs. Gregory Soto, DET

Bogaerts may only get to face Soto once, as he’s only going to go a few innings as the opener. Either way, he has a .755 wOBA+ISO and 2.88 FP/PA in his last 20 games against left-handed pitching. He has double-digit fantasy performances in six of his last 10 starts and is seeing the ball as well as anyone right now with a 93.5 mph average exit velocity. Once Soto comes out, the Detroit bullpen is dead last against right-handed hitters allowing 3.54 FP/PA. The Red Sox are in a great spot and Bogaerts should be the center piece.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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