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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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It’s that time again. Time to strap in for a mammoth main slate with 28 MLB teams set to step foot on the diamond. As far as 14-game slates go, this one sets up to be fairly balanced. You have several ace-level pitchers taking the mound, headlined by Jacob DeGoat, along with some intriguing mid-range + value arms to consider as well. On the offensive side, there are a considerable amount of teams in strong spots to succeed and several ballparks will continue to provide some helpful hitter-friendly weather to boot. Speaking of weather, aside from the CLE @ TB game, which has already been postponed due to Tropical Storm Elsa, the primary spot to watch out for will be the CWS @ MIN game. There’s plenty to dig into so let’s dive right on in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

ATL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Warm, 85-90 degree temps.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 11 O/U): Over 90 degrees at first pitch with winds around 10 mph blowing out to CF. This game features the highest total of the slate. Slight chance of a pop-up storm rolling over the ballpark but bats should be safe.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): There is some decently high rain chances in the forecast here so, if you’re looking to roll out deGrom, make sure things look alright once we get closer to lock. Some delay potential exists. It will be warm with 10 mph winds blowing out to center/right as well, so not the best pitching conditions either (doubt it matters much for deGrom, though).

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET, 10 O/U): Hitting conditions aren’t quite as good here as they were yesterday, but still good regardless. Warm (80-85 degrees) with 10ish mph winds blowing out to CF.

CIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Near 90 degrees at first pitch. Some light winds blowing out to LF.

CWS @ MIN (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): As mentioned in the intro, this is the primary trouble spot today. Rain will be at its heaviest around the first pitch with lighter stuff hanging around most of the evening. We should probably be expecting some sort of delay here and a postponement is absolutely on the table as well. With so many other games on the schedule, the weather risk is high enough here to where I will avoid mentioning any player from this game in today’s newsletter.

4 pm ET Update: Things are looking a bit more promising here than they did early, but still not a completely safe game to target at this time.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. OAK

As long as the weather cooperates in New York, Jacob deGrom ($11.5k, FD: $11.8k) will continue to be massive chalk. I’ll never talk anyone off of deGrom, especially now that it seems like he should be a fairly safe bet to throw 90+ pitches which, prior to his last start, he hadn’t done since April 28th.

Valdez sticks out as the other high-end pitcher I would look to go to today. While he is not a major strikeout guy (22.4% kRate), he can go deep into games largely thanks to the massive amounts of ground balls he forces. Among MLB starters with at least 40.0 IP this season, Valdez leads everyone by a mile with his 71.0% Ground Ball Rate -- any pitcher who is close to or above a 50% GB% is typically considered a “ground ball pitcher.”. Subsequently, Valdez has pitched at least seven complete innings in five of his last six starts. He’ll also be catching an Oakland offense that is really on a downward trend as of late. Over the last two weeks, the A’s have been horrid against left-handed pitching. In that span versus LHPs (186 PA), they’re batting just .176 with a .232 wOBA and a 48 wRC+ -- all figures which rank dead last in the MLB. If Valdez can grab about a strikeout per inning and go his usual 7+ innings deep, we should see him post up a quality fantasy result.

Pablo Lopez (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAD

Lopez will definitely be more of a viable play on DraftKings due to his low salary, but given his upside, he stands out as a major leverage option on FanDuel as well (I’d expect <10% ownership). This is no doubt a very difficult match-up against a nearly 100% healthy Dodgers offense which has averaged 5.18 runs/gm on the road this season (3rd most) and has a 116 wRC+ vs. RHPs (2nd best). But, needless to say, Lopez should be very well-rested for his start today after getting ejected in his previous outing for throwing at Ronald Acuna Jr. on the first pitch of the game. Lopez has been excellent at home as well (Marlins Park, #8 best pitcher’s park in 2021) where, across 53.2 IP, he has posted a 2.01 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 26.8% kRate, and a 0.67 HR/9 Rate. If we look at a smaller and more recent sample size, the Dodgers have been more of an ‘average’ offense as of late -- their 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks (vs. RHPs) ranks 14th in the league. Lopez has shut down plenty of quality teams this season and Miami will only be slight +115 underdogs today. While Lopez is “safe” by no means (really, what pitcher is these days?), the DK pricing algorithm probably went a little overboard with giving him this $7,700 price tag.

Jon Gray (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ ARI

Gray will check-in as today’s “risk it for the biscuit” starting pitcher. As long as he gets off to a good start across the initial two or three innings, he often finds a groove and can provide 6+ innings of quality pitching. Oddly enough, he tends to pitch much better at home in the infamously hitter-friendly Coors Field. But despite being on the road today, he’ll draw a plus match-up with a D-Backs team that has struggled on offense for the vast majority of their games this season. On the year, they rank 29th with an 80 wRC+ vs. RHPs and they have struck out at a fairly high rate of 24.5% while batting .227. The roof will be closed at Chase Field tonight so that hot Phoenix air won’t have a chance to impact batted baseballs in this game. The Rockies are 6-31 on the road this season, so if the bats can actually provide Gray with some run support, then I could certainly see a pathway to him hitting 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP. Strong GPP play.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  The Toronto Blue Jays will come in as a highly appealing stack option on this slate as they’ll be in a very hitter-friendly ballpark at Camden Yards while facing an unproven starting pitcher and likely a bunch of bullpen arms as well. They’ll be followed closely by the Philadelphia Phillies facing Jake Arrieta in some more hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley. The boom/bust New York Yankees also find themselves in more of a “boom” spot against Justus Sheffield today.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

I feel like a Reds stack really doesn’t work out as often as it should, but when it does ‘hit’, it tends to be in a big way. Perhaps this can be one of those days. Kris Bubic is a very attack-able match-up as he has allowed a .360+ wOBA to both sides of the plate, along with a .333 ISO to LHBs, .213 ISO to RHBs. When batter’s can get under the ball against him, there’s a strong chance that it will clear the fence. Bubic has a 2.06 HR/9 Rate on the year and his 22.2% HR/FB Rate ranks as the highest among today’s starting pitchers. Bubic will be supported by a Royals bullpen that has a 4.82 xFIP over the last month (4th highest) and has given up 1.84 HR/9 in that span as well. Warm weather in KC today will also provide hitter’s with an additional advantage.

Texas Rangers vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

The Rangers have been surprisingly productive as of late, led by the scorching hot bat of Joey Gallo who has blasted eight HRs in his last eight games. I’d really love their potential today if they were going up against a lefty starter (TEX has a league-best 185 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks), but there’s always a chance for some ABs against lefty relievers. At the same time, nothing is scary about the starting right-handed pitcher they have to face today. Jose Urena has been on a horrible run over the last couple of months. In his last eight starts going back to May 8th (36.2 IP), Urena has posted an 8.84 ERA, 6.22 xFIP, 2.5 HR/9 Rate, 2.05 WHIP, and is allowing a massive .352 AVG/.452 wOBA. His paltry 10.3% kRate in that span is nearly the same as his walk rate (9.2% BB%). A bottom 10 ranked Tigers bullpen will come in relief behind Urena, who may only last three or four innings.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

Despite their high salaries, most will be looking to load up on the Blue Jays bats in this game (and for good reason). However, the Baltimore bats are in a sneaky good spot as well. When they’re at home facing a lefty, the Orioles rank 4th in the MLB with a 117 wRC+. They’re loaded with RHBs and Matz has traditional splits and isn’t particularly effective against that side of the plate -- .341 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.36 HR/9 Rate. Nearly every hitter in this lineup ranges from affordable to dirt cheap. While a full 5-man stack may not be the right way to gain exposure to the O’s, I do believe that some two, three, or possibly four-man stack combinations could end up working out nicely.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

SS JP Crawford | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

C JT Realmuto | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

2B/SS Ramon Urias | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

3B/SS Orlando Arcia | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

OF Ben Gamel | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

I’m on a home run call drought right now, so I’m going with one of the more obvious plays of the day. Rookie Spenser Watkins will be making his first career MLB start and shouldn’t be expected to pitch deep into this game at all, which would leave the O’s bullpen eating up most of the innings. Vlad Jr. has given plenty of teams and opposing pitchers nightmares this season, and Baltimore is no exception. In seven games and 28 at-bats versus the Orioles this year, Guerrero Jr. is hitting .321 with a .508 wOBA, .500 ISO, 224 wRC+, 1.246 OPS, and has racked up four home runs. Camden Yards has rated out as the #2 ballpark in home run factor this season and it will be a hot day in Baltimore (90+ degrees at first pitch) with 10 mph winds blowing out to center field.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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