Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

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What’s going on everybody? Hope you all had a nice Fourth of July with friends and family. Just two days left until the All-Star break. The second half of the season is shaping up to be interesting. Who is going to be a buyer and who is going to be a seller? We’ll find out here over the next few weeks. In the meantime, we have a seven game main slate to dissect today. There are some serviceable pitching options in each pricing tier which should make this a fun slate. We’ve got a couple of pitchers with some massive salary reductions compared to previous weeks that are going to be really difficult to avoid. Let’s check out the Vegas perspective for these games:

Two items to discuss quickly in regards to weather. First, it’s going to be near 90 degrees at first pitch in New York with winds blowing out slightly. This is not a great hitters' park, so a 9 O/U here is worth mentioning. The heat and wind should help the ball carry. We also have a 9.5 O/U in Chicago for the game against the White Sox and Cubs. Winds are expected to be blowing out around 15 miles per hour throughout the game which should also give a boost to the bats. No rain in the forecast for any of these games.     

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole, HOU | DK: $11.1K, FD: $11.5K | RHP | vs. Los Angeles Angels

Truth be told, I don’t love playing pitchers against the Angels. They are a solid offense, especially when you add Ohtani into the mix, with a .334 wOBA and .181 ISO. Even worse, they strikeout the least of any team in baseball – an impressive 17.7% against right-handed pitching. With that said, it’s also hard to ignore how well Cole is pitching right now and when push comes to shove, I typically side with the elite pitcher. He’s allowed just two earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts dating back to May 27th. This has brought his ERA down to just 3.28 and even better his SIERA down to an impressive 2.89. He has a 1.04 WHIP and an absolutely absurd 36.8% strikeouts (hence why I’m not overly concerned about the Angels low strikeout rate). Cole is second in the majors, behind only Max Scherzer, with 161 strikeouts in 109.2 innings pitched. Also working in his favor is this is the first time this season he’s facing the Angels, despite being in the same division. Houston is a -195 favorite and the Angels have an implied total of just 3.8 runs.  

Madison Bumgarner, SF | DK: $9.2K, FD: $9.8K | LHP | vs. St. Louis

Will this be one of the last starts for Bumgarner in a San Francisco uniform? He’s expected to be one of the most sought after starting pitchers on the market and the last place Giants at 39-47 (19.5 GB) are clearly going to be sellers. Where is he going to end up? Minnesota? New York? We’ll find out in just a few short weeks. He’s showing flashes of his old-self recently with back-to-back “ace-like” performances. He went six innings against the Rockies, allowing three hits and two earned runs while striking out 11. He followed that up with seven innings against Arizona allowing four hits, one earned run, and striking out nine. This has brought his SIERA down to 3.99 and his WHIP is solid at 1.05. He’s striking out 27.6% of batters and walking only 4.8%. The one red flag on his resume this season is a 44.1% hard contact rate allowed. The Cardinals are a pretty mediocre match up. They have a below average .313 wOBA with some power upside displayed by their .183 ISO and they strikeout an average 20.7% of the time. Bumgarner and the Giants are slight favorites at -115 (increased to -122 overnight - keep an eye on this) and the Cardinals have the lowest implied total on the board at just 3.7 runs. The question is whether or not the Giants offense can get anything going against Mikolas, otherwise Bumgarner would be a much heavier favorite here.  

Robbie Ray, ARI | DK: $7.9K, FD: $9.3K | LHP | vs. Colorado Rockies

Ugh, get the Advil or Tylenol or Whiskey ready depending on your pain reliever of choice. Using Robbie Ray is about as much fun as watching paint dry. He’s impossible to predict. Just to illustrate the point take a look at his DraftKings point performances in each of his last 10 starts: 20.5, 12.8, 25.8, 7.3, 23.6, 31.4, 9.9, 20.1, 21.5, and 5.6. The ceiling is as high as the best of them but the floor is as low as the worst of them. It’s anyone’s guess if the efficient and strikeout happy version of Ray will show up or the wildly inconsistent and walk happy version. If you can handle the roller coaster, however, it’s hard to ignore the massive salary drop from $10K to $7.9K on DraftKings today. This is also a better match up than you think. On the surface, the Rockies have a strong offense. But they are just 20-23 on the road this season and ranked dead last in wOBA (.281), 25th in ISO (.157), and dead last in wRC+ (69). They also have the second highest strikeout rate 27.7% away from home this season. Only the Rangers (28%) have a higher strikeout rate on the road. This is an outstanding spot for Ray to flirt with double-digit strikeouts, reach his ceiling, and have a huge return on investment (particularly on DraftKings) but just know it’s as far from a sure thing as it gets.      

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Andrew Heaney, LAA (LHP)

The top team in baseball against left-handed pitching will face a struggling lefty today. Houston has a massive .366 wOBA and .228 ISO against southpaws. Perhaps even more impressive is their plate discipline. They are striking out 17.2% of the time (only two other teams have a strikeout rate lower than 20% against left-handed pitching) and they also walk 11.4% of the time which is the most in baseball. Heaney is going to have some difficulty getting out of jams in this one and his high fly ball and hard contact rates allowed are a recipe for disaster. This entire lineup should be on your radar but some clearly standout more than others. Altuve is far and away at the top of this list with his ridiculous 1.131 OPS, .454 wOBA, and .391 ISO against left-handed pitching. Springer (.961 OPS, .395 wOBA, .309 ISO) and Bregman (.915 OPS, .373 wOBA, .309 ISO) are close seconds. Brantley (.376 wOBA) and Alvarez (42.9% hard contact - if he plays) are both strong options despite the lefty vs. lefty matchup. Chirinos (50% hard contact) and Marisnick (.304 ISO) both have upside but low floors. Houston has one of the higher implied totals on the board today at 4.7 runs.

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales, SEA (LHP)

I’m thinking there’s a chance Gonzales is popular today because of how cheap he is, especially on DraftKings as an SP2. I understand the logic, as he’s allowed just three earned runs or less in five straight starts. He just doesn’t have anywhere near enough upside for me to have interest and I’ll gladly stack against him if he winds up being chalky. The recent streak is impressive but the 5.15 SIERA, 1.40 WHIP, and terribly low 14.9% strikeout rate paint a different picture. He’s giving up 40.4% hard contact and allowing an above average wOBA to both sides of the plate. Oakland, similar to Houston, is one of the best teams in baseball both in terms of power (.349 wOBA, .233 ISO) and plate discipline (only 18% strikeouts) against left-handed pitching. The hard hit rates of the Oakland lineup against lefties this season are outstanding: Olson (58.3%), Pinder (51.5%), Davis (49%), Laureano (48.3%), Chapman (46.8%), and Phegley (44.2%) are all above 40%. Semien (.362 wOBA, .185 ISO), Piscotty (.396 wOBA, .206 ISO), and Canha (.344 wOBA, .218 ISO) are all very much in play as well in this spot. Oakland has the highest implied total today at 5.1 runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chris Paddack, SD (RHP)

Last Saturday when I wrote this article, I mentioned how it was going to be tough to trust Chris Paddack with the Padres limiting his workload throughout the season. He hadn’t pitched more than 4-5 innings in several starts before being sent down to the minors briefly. He then proceeded to throw six innings of two hit baseball with eight strikeouts. The talent here is undeniable. How the Padres will use him is going to be tough to predict. With that said, I don’t love this spot. The Dodgers offense is one of the best in baseball, particularly against right-handed pitching. They own a .345 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 116 wRC+ while striking out less than 20% of the time. This is a tall order for Paddack on the road. Bellinger (1.136 OPS, .451 wOBA, .362 ISO, 50.9% hard hits), Muncy (.908 OPS, .377 wOBA, .275 ISO, 44% hard hits), and Pederson (.935 OPS, .386 wOBA, .321 ISO, 44.4% hard hits) all crush right-handed pitching. Verdugo has a solid stat line as well, including a .340 wOBA, .198 ISO, and 45% hard hits. Justin Turner is always on the radar when considering a Dodgers stack. He has a .360 wOBA and 46.4% hard hit rate. The downside with Turner is he’s shown little power against right-handed pitching this season with just a .115 ISO. The Dodgers are in the mix for highest implied total of the day, currently sitting at five runs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Jose Martinez, STL | DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.7K | OF | vs. Madison Bumgarner

I’m still siding with Bumgarner in this one but Martinez makes for a cheap one off in lineups that either don’t have Bumgarner in them or even for cash games. He’s making his way up to the top of the order for St. Louis, batting second over the past week, and he’s rewarded the Cardinals with some big numbers including a two home run performance a few nights ago in Seattle. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching, he has a ridiculous 1.190 wOBA+ISO and 3.60 FP/PA. Over a larger 150 game sample against lefties he has a still very solid .675 wOBA+ISO. I typically mention BvP in this section if there is any but, as always, I’ll add the disclaimer that the sample sizes are usually too small to draw any real conclusions. For example, in this case, Martinez has faced Bumgarner nine times with a home run, three RBI, and a 1.154 wOBA+ISO.

Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.6K | 1B | vs. Jon Gray, COL (RHP)

Might be time to jump on this train before the price catches up. If he gets on a heater, which he appears to be starting to, his price will be back in the high $4K or low $5K range quickly. He has 26.5 FPPG in his last two games including a monster night last night that included two home runs and five RBI. He has a .783 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts against right-handed pitching and a .605 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 starts. As an added bonus, Colorado’s bullpen ranks 26th against right-handed hitters.      

Matt Chapman, OAK | DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.8K | 3B | vs. Marco Gonzales, SEA

Earlier, I mentioned all the reasons I like Oakland today and Chapman is a key piece of that. He’s a strong hitter against left-handed pitching with a .387 wOBA and .255 ISO over his last 150 starts and a .401 wOBA and .333 ISO over his last 20 starts. Just in the past two weeks, Chapman has an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph. There’s some notable BvP here as well, with 16 plate appearances against Gonzales. He doesn’t have any home runs but he does have a .895 wOBA+ISO and 2.8 FP/PA against him.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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