Top MLB DFS Plays 7/5 | Shaking off the Cobwebs

July 05, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Welcome back! I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend. I also hope that any potential hangovers are fading away sooner rather than later. Monday will bring us a solid nine-game main slate and one thing I love about this set of games… no postponement concerns! That’s a welcomed change after a fairly soggy week last week. There are also going to be temperatures ranging from warm to very hot in several of today’s ballparks, some of which will have hitter-friendly winds blowing out. There’s no guarantee, but this does feel like a day where we’ll see plenty of baseballs flying over fences. I came in from a weekend camping trip not too long ago so I got a late jump on today’s newsletter, so apologies if things are a bit more abbreviated today! Let’s go win some cashola!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Hot and humid summertime weather can always bring forth the possibility of a random pop-up storm rolling over at some ballparks but, overall, the skies are clear today. No postponement worries.

ATL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Humid with warm temps in the mid/upper-80s.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Not overly warm (upper-70s) but there will be winds blowing OUT to left/center at around 10 mph.

CWS @ MIN (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Really hot with 90-95 degree game time temps. Light winds blowing a bit out to right, a bit right to left.

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET, 11 O/U): Temps in the mid-80s with noticeable 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to dead center. No surprise to see the highest total of the slate here at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

CIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Another warm environment (mid/upper 80s) in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ PIT

The obvious choice today will be Brandon Woodruff ($10.4/$11.4k) and he’ll definitely be worth targeting, particularly in cash, if you land on some value bats. Behind him, I’m seeing a lot of love going to Joe Musgrove ($8.7k/$9.6k) at home facing a Schwarber-less Nats team who may also be without Trea Turner. I don’t necessarily *hate* going to Musgrove… he should have a solid floor. But, aside from one game against the Rockies, he’s struggled to even crack the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold. Pretty steep prices for someone who isn’t flashing much upside lately.

So, that brings me to Max Fried who should step on the mound today with a little extra swagger after getting a pinch-hit walk-off RBI single in yesterday’s come-from-behind victory. He’ll face a Pirates team that ranks dead last against lefties with a 79 wRC+ this season. They don’t strike out a ton (22.0% kRate) but Fried will have an excellent chance to go six, maybe seven innings deep into this game. Fried is also allowing an insanely low 15.4% Hard Contact% over the last month along with a high 51.9% Ground Ball rate. He’s simply pitching at a very solid level as of late and stands out as a worthwhile mid-range target. The Braves are also heavy -180 favorites today.

Kolby Allard (LHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. DET

This is one of those sorta “looks good on paper but is a bit scary in reality” type plays. Since earning a routine spot in the rotation, Allard has pitched some quality baseball. Over his last five starts, he has landed on a fairly strong 3.54 ERA and a flat 1.00 WHIP. The strikeouts aren’t insane (19.8% kRate L5G, 23.2% kRate on the season) but he has a slate-low 5.2% Walk Rate and will draw the Detroit match-up, who has struck out a league-high 28.5% of the time against LHPs. However, the Tigers are also somewhat quietly raking right now. They’re averaging 6.7 runs/gm over their last six games and over the last two weeks, they have a massive .388 wOBA and 145 wRC+ vs. LHPs with just an 18.5% kRate. So, it really all depends on whether or not Detroit plays closer to their (poor) season-long averages or if they stay hot. Allard will be more of a GPP target for me and I’ll give him about a 50/50 shot at hitting 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP. The Rangers will also be decent -160 favorites and Allard has gone at least five full innings deep in five straight.

Tylor Megill (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIL

Got another “risk it for the biscuit” play here with Megill. He only has 9.1 IP across two MLB starts in his rookie campaign, but he’s showing some potential, particularly in the strikeout department, that he also exhibited at essentially every level in the minor leagues. Megill’s 12 Ks over those 9.1 IP translates to 11.6 K/9 and a 30.0% kRate, which are very comparable figures to his minor league numbers. The Brewers are another offense that has been mediocre, at best, on the season, but very hot as of late (129 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 3rd). With Brandon Woodruff as his counterpart, this game carries the lowest total of the slate at 7.5 runs. The Mets will also come in as only slight underdogs (+112) and the Brewers are being tagged with a modest 4.1 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  As scary as it seems, the go-to stack today is looking like the Chicago Cubs versus Matt Moore. Aside from the advantageous match-up with Moore, a major draw here are those impactful 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field at Wrigley, along with warm temperatures in the 80s.

Kansas City Royals vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

It’s another great hitting environment in KC today so I believe it’d be wise to target some pieces in this match-up. I’ll slightly side with the Royals here as they’ll go up against Gutierrez who has a high 8.8% Barrel%, a 44.1% Fly Ball Rate, and a slate-worst 5.57 xFIP. Behind Gutierrez will be a Reds bullpen that is improving as of late, but on the season they’ve been one of the worst relief units in the league.

Atlanta Braves vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

The Braves crash and burn all the time even when given a solid match-up, like the one they have today. They also have enough elite hitters to where they can come out of nowhere and post 20 runs like they’ve done twice this season (once against these Pirates back on May 21st). So, the sort of “all or nothing” nature of Atlanta’s offense will almost always make them a ‘GPP only’ offense to target. Chase De Jong is another pitcher on this slate who allows plenty of barreled baseballs, a high fly ball rate, and possesses a >5.00 xFIP. He’s also particularly bad against RHBs (6.75 ERA, .424 wOBA, 1.67 WHIP, 3.00 HR/9), which Atlanta has plenty of. PNC Park isn’t a great hitter’s park by any means, but warm temps in Pittsburgh should help fly balls carry just a bit further today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Jon Lester* (LHP), WAS

*unconfirmed starter at the time of this writing

Assuming Jon Lester is on the bump today, the Padres will definitely be a lower-owned stack to consider. It isn’t really like people would look at a match-up with Lester (5.34 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP) and be scared to stack the Pads bats against him. As I’ve hit on quite a few times, most DFS players just don’t really go out of their way to stack West Coast offenses (which extends beyond just MLB DFS). To an extent, it makes sense considering there are far more hitter-friendly ballparks towards the East Coast which is also where the warm, humid weather is going to be found most of the time at this point in the season. But there is simply too much leverage to be had with offenses like the Padres, who are capable of plating 10+ runs against anyone. With the exception of maybe only Fernando Tatis Jr., they should all come in at under 10% owned this evening.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

3B/OF Kris Bryant | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matt Moore (RHP), PHI

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Brian Goodwin | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

1B/OF/2B Phil Gosselin | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

1B/OF Gavin Sheets | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B/OF Kris Bryant | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matt Moore (RHP), PHI

With those spicy-looking hitting conditions out in Chicago today (warm w/ 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center), I was thinking pretty hard about going to Wrigley Field for my HR call when I first gave this slate a look over. Scott and Bubba made it an easy decision after they took Baez and Rizzo on the podcast, so naturally, I had to finish off the Cubs trifecta and take Bryant. It’s just a great spot for Bryant (and some other Cubbies) to go yard. Against lefties this season, Bryant is batting .349 with a .487 wOBA and a massive .413 ISO + a 50.0% Hard Contact %. Hopefully, Bryant can get at least two cracks at Matt Moore, who is giving up a .311 AVG, .418 wOBA, .311 ISO, and 2.45 HR/9 to RHBs this season.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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