Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Here’s to hoping everyone enjoyed their July 4th festivities. Don’t hold it against me if there are some typos or grammatical mistakes in today’s article. I’m still feeling yesterday’s ‘independence’ a little bit, ya know? Including today’s 13-game slate, we have just three more days of baseball before we head into the All-Star Break, so let’s to try make a little cash ahead of time! Since Greg is in charge of the weekend newsletters, if you’re exclusively a baseball DFS player and reader, you won’t hear from me until next Friday. So I’ll take this time to recommend coming over to PGA early next week if you get bored and have a DFS itch you want to scratch. Or I guess you could also spend time with your loved ones instead or whatever…

July 5th match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

TEX @ MIN: Of all the games today, right now this is one that seems to have the most clear-cut outlook. Rain will be in the area before, and perhaps during, the scheduled first pitch. But things should quickly clear up soon thereafter so, if anything, they could start this game a little late but all indications point to this game fully playing and pitchers being safe. Keep an eye on the Twins intentions though. Without a deliberate late start, pitchers would be a bit riskier.

MIA @ ATL: I’d be a little skeptical about using the starting pitchers in this game simply because there could be several scattered storms that roll through the area which would bring in the potential for either multiple delays, or one lengthy delay. Overall, I think they should get this game in, so the bats seem safe.

Elsewhere, the following games have some delay (or very light postponement) risk due to some potential scattered/pop-up storms: KC @ WAS, PHI @ NYM, BOS @ DET, MIL @ PIT. Of those games, Kansas City at Washington is the most concerning just because the Nats are known to make stupid decisions in relation to weather situations.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw (DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.2k) | LHP | LAD vs. SD

I have a feeling that deGrom will be the most popular SP1 that people will pay up for and by all means, he is a strong play, but I’d consider Kershaw a bit of a GPP pivot away from the potential deGrom chalk. Tonight, Kershaw makes his first home start since June 18th and you always feel a bit better when he takes the mound in Dodger Stadium (averages +5.4 DKFP at home, 21.9 FPPG). Kershaw’s strikeouts aren’t exactly where you’d like to see them -- his 22.7% kRate ranks 10th on the slate among starters. However, the Padres boast quite a high 25.8% kRate against lefties this year, so the potential for eight to ten K's is there if Kershaw can summon his inner youth. San Diego has a lot of scary right-handed power so it’s always a bit risky rolling out any lefty against them, but I believe Kershaw can get it done tonight and post a solid fantasy day.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.1k) | LHP | BOS @ DET

ERod’s long term home/road splits are extreme enough to where I will typically avoid him when he pitches away from Boston but the match-up today with the Tigers is too enticing to ignore. Detroit’s offense is finding some life after scoring 7.3 runs/game in their last three outings but on the year against LHPs, they rank inside the bottom ten in wOBA, ISO, OBP, and wRC+ metrics and strikeout 25.5% of the time. For the price, Rodriguez’s 24.3% kRate is solid enough to where it should counteract the hits and runs he will inevitably give up. One of his best outings of the year did also come against Detroit back on April 24th when he went six innings on 90 pitches, allowing two hits, one run, and struck out seven while earning the win. A similar performance is certainly possible but I’d temper expectations slightly. Boston is currently the heaviest favorite of the day (-230) but Detroit still has a high 4.9 implied run total. If you’re not playing Rodriguez, I would maybe consider some light exposure to a couple of the Detroit bats in case he implodes at high ownership.

Martin Perez (DK: $7.9k, FD: $6.9k) | LHP | MIN vs. TEX

Unintentionally continuing the lefty trend, we have Perez who has some sneaky high upside today against Texas. Any time the Rangers face a lefty on the road, unless the pitcher is a complete gas can with low strikeout ability, I think you have to send some consideration their way. The reason being is because Texas has a league high 32.9% kRate on the road versus LHPs along with a .219 AVG (29th), .289 wOBA (23rd), and 78 wRC+ (23rd). Texas does have several hitters who may strikeout a bunch but can also launch it a mile. However, in the last month, Perez is allowing just a 26.5% Hard Contact Rate with an average exit velo of 84.2 mph (top 95%) and average distance of 187.2 feet (top 90%). Perez’s pitching metrics also improve considerably when at home and, thus, his fantasy scoring follows suit (+8.4 DKFP, 18.4 FPPG). The Twins are heavy -180 favorites today as well, which adds to the thinking that Perez should be a solid SP2 target on this slate.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Gregory Soto (LHP, Detroit Tigers)

There are no Coors Field bats to spend up on today but some of these Boston hitters boast some major Coors Field-like upside. The Red Sox have scored at least six runs in seven of their last eight games (7.63 runs/game) and will face off with the rookie gas can that is Gregory Soto. Through six starts this year, Soto has posted an 8.44 ERA with a 6.33 xFIPand a 2.11 HR/9 Rate. He’s awful against righties (allows a .442 wOBA, .324 ISO) so feel free to slightly prioritize the RHBs for Boston. I say “slightly prioritize the RHBs” simply because Soto hasn’t made it beyond four innings in any of his starts this year, so expect to see some additional innings from a Tigers bullpen that, overall, has a 5.01 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.71 HR/9 Rate on the year. Much of this order falls into play but the favored options would likely be JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, and Rafael Devers.

New York Mets vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP, Philadelphia Phillies)

You have to like the upside from some of these Mets batters at home as they face off with Velasquez who is one of the lower quality SPs on this slate. Velasquez has struggled a great deal on the road where his ERA sits at 5.50 along with a poor 4.76 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 2.36 HR/9. He’s allowing 45.3% Hard Contact this season as well, which is the second highest mark among starting pitchers today. You can also sort of disregard any lefty/righty favoritisms because VV surrenders at least a .350 wOBA and .219 ISO to both sides of the plate. If the Mets force him into an early exit, they’ll see extra at-bats against a Phillies bullpen that has been pretty terrible, especially recently. I’m keen to the (likely) one through three guys in this Mets order: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and, for some salary relief, Robinson Cano.

Minnesota Twins vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP, Texas Rangers)

It’s been a while since I’ve featured the Twins in the stack section -- mostly because they’re not raking quite as much as they were a month or so ago. But I won’t miss out on a chance to target Sampson, who may have the worst home/road splits among all starters today. In his 32 innings on the road this year he has put up a 6.47 ERA, 5.92 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and 2.53 HR/9 while allowing a .306 AVG, .399 wOBA, and a massive 52.8% Hard Contact Rate. Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, and Luis Arraez all have at least a .420 wOBA and 165 wRC+ against RHPs in the last month which makes them some top guys to target here. Cruz will check in as my home run call of the evening. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Ketel Marte (DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela

Marte isn’t a cheap bat by any means but he should give you a solid floor today. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (70 plate appearances), he is hitting .470 with an .882 wOBA+ISO and five homers. He’s also batting .500 against Senzatela (12 plate appearances) who has awful splits against lefties (.323 AVG, .410 wOBA). Those splits for Senzatela are also very consistent despite whether or not he is pitching in Coors Field or on the road. Due to Marte’s DFS prices, and the fact that it’s been over a couple weeks since he’s had one of his ceiling games, he’ll likely check in around 5% ownership today. Great GPP target who also shouldn’t give you a goose egg in this spot.

Khris Davis (DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Khris Davis’ cheap DFS salaries are pretty justified because he really hasn’t shown much of a floor or ceiling as of late and is in danger of losing the “Khrush” nickname. Still, it’s hard to ignore a guy that has this much power for such a low price tag. The interest only heightens due to the the match-up he gets against a lefty pitcher who is prone to allowing home runs. This season, Davis has 67 at-bats against lefties and has homered seven times. So, over 10% of his at-bats against LHPs have resulted in a home run. Not too shabby. We’ll see if he can bust out the slump tonight.

Chris Davis (DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k) | 1B | vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez

Both Chris/Khris Davis will make the one-off section today even though both have been remarkably unremarkable. Aside from the super cheap price tags, the overlying appeal with Chris Davis lies purely within the BvP narrative. In 36 plate appearances against Aaron Sanchez, Davis is hitting .333 with four home runs and a 1.139 wOBA+ISO. Many of those at-bats came when Davis wasn’t such a poor hitter, but for salary relief purposes, I’ll take my chances on him in order to fit in actual Major League level talent elsewhere.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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