Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Happy 4th of July to all you beautiful Americans out there! I hope everyone is having a safe, fun holiday, whether you’re getting rowdy or just relaxing on your day off. Since there’s not many things more American than baseball, we figured we’d dish out a quick little newsletter for the four game evening set of match-ups. As I’ll sometimes recommend for these small slates, try to take things with a lighter approach on the ole bankroll and play for fun. Missing on one guy can hurt you much more on days like this. But hey, if you want to go heavy and max-enter 150 lineups, you have the independence to do so! Three of tonight’s four games carry implied totals of 10.5 runs, so it’s easy to predict that we could see plenty of offensive fireworks.

July 4th evening match-ups with implied totals & moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

Not much to worry about with the weather this evening. There is a slight chance of a small pop-up shower in Atlanta, but otherwise it’s going to be your typical warm, 90-ish degree temperatures both out there and in Texas. Always beneficial for hitters.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Lance Lynn (DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k) | RHP | TEX vs. LAA

Hyun-Jin Ryu is the clear spend-up pitcher tonight with the safest floor, but Lance Lynn would be my preferred pivot if I’m looking for a little extra salary relief. I typically hate using pitchers against the Angels -- they just don’t strikeout very much (17.4% kRate, lowest in MLB). On top of that, Globe Life Park is obviously a hitters paradise. However, Lynn is a perfect 6-0 at home this season and, overall, he has been one of the more consistent arms in the league. He's also rocking a 34.3% kRate versus righties, which this Angels team is full of, so perhaps he can do some damage to their low strikeout numbers. A major concern when rolling pitchers out at GLP is the risk of home runs given up. But in 50.2 home innings, Lynn has only surrendered four home runs resulting in a low 0.71 HR/9. The injury to Tommy La Stella also takes away an effective, low strikeout (8.7% kRate) leadoff hitter from the Angels lineup.

Dinelson Lamet (DK: $7.1k, FD: $5.5k) | RHP | SD @ LAD

Obvious risk involved here. Lamet is making his first MLB start since 2017 after recovering from his Tommy John surgery last April. His pitch count should be (predictably) low, but he is capable of some strikeouts after posting a 28.7% kRate over 21 starts in 2017. The strikeout ability still seems to be there, as he has had three 2019 rehab starts in triple-A and carded a 32.2% kRate across 15 innings. On a day like this, if he can get even just four or five innings of solid work in without getting tagged up too badly, he could return nice value with five to eight punch outs if we’re lucky. Given Lamet’s situation, it is a pretty tall order against an incredibly dangerous Dodgers team that only strikes out 20.1% of the time against RHPs, but it’s nothing out of the realm of possibilities.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves vs. Zach Eflin (RHP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Atlanta’s average of 5.81 runs/game at home this year trails only Colorado, who obviously have a massive ball park advantage over everyone. The Braves also average 1.72 HRs/game at home, third best in the league. We know how dangerous this lineup can be and they currently have the highest implied total of the day at 5.6 runs. Zach Eflin has had some strong outings this season but he’s also shown some struggles on the road with a 2-5 record, 4.65 xFIP, and 1.35 WHIP while striking out only 18.9% of batters. Not the worst numbers but far from elite. He is also giving up 43.8% Hard Contact on the road so the Braves power bats can certainly take advantage. On top of it all, the Phillies have perhaps the worst bullpen on this slate, which only adds to the Braves appeal. Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Josh Donaldson are probably my three favorite bats in this order tonight but there are at least two or three more guys that you could make a case for. Austin Riley is my pick to go yard tonight. 💣

San Diego Padres vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers)

Rolling out a Padres stack is about as contrarian as you could get on this four game slate. We already know that Ryu is going to be a popular play so, if San Diego can actually get to him, be prepared to move up the leaderboards if you land on the right bats. The Padres are a top 10 offense against LHPs and their numbers only go up when they leave their pitcher-friendly home at Petco Park and go on the road. Against LHPs on the road, as a team, they’ve posted a .334 wOBA (6th), .223 ISO (3rd), and 105 wRC+ (7th) with a 21.1% HR/FB Rate (2nd) and 41.9% Hard Contact (5th). Perhaps a statistical overload to simply say: “they can hit some dingers.” Ryu has a ridiculous 0.94 ERA at home this year and has only allowed three homers in Dodger Stadium but he does allow a 41.8% Hard Contact Rate to righties. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Hunter Renfroe are likely the best bets at production against a high caliber pitcher like Ryu.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Rafael Devers (DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k) | 3B | vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Rafael Devers has been an absolute force in recent weeks. In his last 15 games he has 29 hits while batting .468 with a .522 wOBA, .306 ISO, and 232 wRC+. He’s also been finding plenty of success against the Blue Jays this season. In 10 games against them, he’s batting .474 with five home runs and an absurd 1.421 OPS. There are probably only a handful of pitchers who could completely shut down Devers right now and Marcus Stroman isn’t one of ‘em. Stroman is also pretty significantly worse against left-handed hitters which, of course, is where Devers stands at in the batters box.

Freddy Galvis (DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k) | SS | vs. RHP Hector Velazquez

Top to bottom, shortstop seems like a reasonable position to pay down for on this small slate where finding value is crucial. Toronto slotted Galvis in at leadoff yesterday and he came through by producing a 3-for-3 night with a double, walk and RBI. His numbers haven’t been great from the scope of the entire season but he’s certainly heating up. In his last 20 games, he’s batting .377 with five homers, 17 RBI, and a .708 wOBA+ISO. He’s also posted an average exit velocity of 97.3 mph versus RHPs over the last two weeks (top 95%) so there’s some decent home run upside if he can barrel one. I’ll probably be rolling with him even if he doesn’t grab the top spot in the order again.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k) | OF | vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

I’m unintentionally staying in this BOS @ TOR game and giving a nod to another Red Sox player who has been carrying a pretty hot bat -- but unlike Devers, Bradley Jr. is very affordable. Over the last month, JBJ is hitting .320 with a .419 wOBA, .253 ISO, five homers, and 15 RBI. After a pretty miserable start on the offensive side of things this year, it was only a matter of time before he got going. That pretty much started against this same Toronto team in their series opener on May 20th. Since then, he has hit all nine of his homers on the year and he’s rocking a .319 batting average alongside a .422 wOBA, .297 ISO, and 164 wRC+. He’s another lefty I would be fine throwing out against Stroman tonight.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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