Top MLB DFS Plays 7/31 | First Coors Slate of the Season!

July 31, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Some concerning news came out this morning as the MLB announced today’s game between St. Louis and Milwaukee has been postponed due to multiple positive coronavirus tests within the Cardinals organization. With every new outbreak, the chances that this season actually finishes dwindle quite a bit. Let’s hope these players, coaches, and staff start to really buckle down on safety protocols, as a lot of these guys simply don’t seem to be taking this entire situation seriously enough.

But we’re here for DFS talk, so let’s do that. Friday brings us a massive 12-game slate which will feature the first Coors Field match-up of the season. It’s always fun to see how things play out across the first few games at Coors and you can bet that plenty of ownership will fall on Rockies and Padres players this evening. With a solid amount of viable pitching options and plenty of strong offenses in great spots, there are numerous angles of attack to take on this slate. Develop your strategy, play your plays, and see what works out at the end of the night. Let’s get into it!

Today’s games with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

PIT @ CHC: Winds blowing in from left around 10 mph. Slight downgrade to bats.

TB @ BAL: Rain could linger into the scheduled first pitch time frame. A late start seems pretty possible, and they may play through some lighter stuff later in the game, but a postponement seems very unlikely.

NYM @ ATL: As is often the case during the summertime down in Atlanta, there’s a reasonable chance for scattered pop-up thunderstorms. They’ve avoided the storms the last couple days but it’s always a good idea to check the radar leading up to the scheduled first pitch (7:10 ET) to see how things are looking. 10 mph winds also blowing in from right -- slight downgrade to hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PIT

Pricing is a little all over the place today between DK and FD but before I get into Darvish and some other guys, one expensive arm I would look to avoid today is Blake Snell (DK: $10.8k, FD: $9.5k). After throwing just 46 pitches across two innings in his season debut, Snell is reportedly only going to receive 3-5 innings worth of work tonight against Baltimore. For these salaries, he’d have to pitch completely lights out and land on the “five inning” side of that workload restriction in order to return value.

Darvish may not have had a dream start in his season opener (4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 K on 73 pitches vs. MIL) while earning just 8.8 DKFP/18 FDFP but he is in a far better spot tonight. The Pirates are hitting just .164 in 159 at-bats against RHPs alongside a 46 wRC+ (2nd worst in MLB). They’re also striking out 27.9% of the time against righties. I believe we should see Darvish return closer to the form that we saw him have in the second half of the 2019 season. In his 13 starts after the ‘19 All-Star Break, across 81.2 IP Darvish held a 2.76 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, .199 opponent AVG, 0.81 WHIP, and a 37.8% kRate while showing extreme plate control and only walking 2.2% of batters in that time. He was simply lights out. He’ll need to see a sizable bump in his pitch count from last game which, again, was only 73 pitches. But if he can get to around 90 or so pitches, he could end up being an excellent option tonight. The Cubs are currently the heaviest favorite on the slate (-215) and those 10 mph winds blowing in from left should only help Darvish even further.

Luis Castillo (RHP) | DK: $8k, FD: $10.1k | @ DET

I believe FanDuel had the right idea pricing Castillo as the most expensive pitcher tonight, so that $8k price tag on DraftKings stands out as an obvious value. He’s absolutely viable on FanDuel as well, but expect him to have probably double the ownership of any other pitcher on DraftKings.

Normally, I’m not the biggest fan of playing a pitcher facing the same team in back-to-back starts but in this shortened season we’re only getting, what, 12 guaranteed starts at most from these guys? That’s assuming the season doesn’t get further derailed with COVID outbreaks. So I’m playing these top arms when I can. Castillo obviously looked very sharp against these same Tigers this past Saturday when he racked up 11 strikeouts across six one-run innings on 91 pitches. Detroit’s 33.3% kRate on 195 plate appearances against RHPs is the highest mark in the league. Castillo is, of course, responsible for 11 of their 65 total strikeouts against righties and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t push double-digit Ks once again. Comerica Park isn’t the most pitcher-friendly place to pitch in but even if Castillo allows a home run or two, the high strikeout probability *should* offset those negative fantasy points. The Reds are also heavy -180 favorites tonight.

Jon Gray (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. SD

If you ever want to get ultra contrarian, and you’re willing to accept the risk, you play pitchers at Coors Field. Now, of course if it’s Gerrit Cole on the mound at Coors, plenty of people are still going to play him, especially at a likely discounted price. But this mostly applies to non-aces. On LineStar, you can easily scroll through Gray’s game logs and fantasy point totals from last season and see that he had plenty of great games pitching at home. In fact, at Coors Field, most of his numbers were considerably better than his road splits. In 75.1 IP at Coors last season, Gray had a 3.46 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 22.6% kRate, 1.29 WHIP, and allowed just 0.96 HR/9 (which is definitely a key metric when it comes to this park). Those aren’t jaw-dropping numbers but they’re definitely solid. Now, the match-up is actually what worries me more than the park factor. The Padres have been arguably the best offense in baseball against RHPs (146 wRC+, ranks 1st) early on in the season. So, drafting Padre bats is much safer tonight than taking the guy pitching against them. But San Diego is the team having to travel after a bit of a late game that went 10 innings last night, so perhaps some jet lag plays a factor or they maybe just have a below average game. Gray is a decent enough pitcher to handle the tough parts of this Padres order and could certainly manage to come away with a 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP kinda night. Or he just gets shelled… we’ll see.

Others to Consider: Alex Cobb and Kris Bubic are both $4,000 starting pitchers on DraftKings and could be worth an SP2 punt in some lineups. Cobb being the safer option after posting 23 DKFP across 5.1 IP against Boston this past Saturday. A similar outing would be crazy value for $4k. Bubic has only pitched in low-level minor leagues but has shown extremely solid strikeout upside. Hey, under similar circumstances, Houston’s Christian Javier certainly worked out the other day!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Chalk Stacks: Padres, Rockies, & Yankees. All three teams are in great spots. They’re worth stacking but will be highly owned. Just differentiate with your other players if you want to avoid playing a duplicated lineup.

Atlanta Braves vs. Rick Porcello (RHP), NYM

Remember that thing I said about not really being a fan of playing pitchers against a team that they just faced in their previous start? Well, the opposite holds true for offenses. Especially when they shelled the guy previously. Porcello got dismantled by Atlanta this past Sunday night when they strung together seven runs (six earned) on seven hits and forced him to retire to the dugout after just two innings and 56 pitches. It would be unreasonable to expect Porcello to get tagged up that badly so early, but the Braves clearly had no trouble reading his pitches a few days ago. If they can force the Mets to go to their bullpen early, they’ll face a set of relievers who have allowed 2.17 HR/9 over 29.0 IP in relief. Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman, and Dansby Swanson have been the most prolific Braves bats so far this season but you have to expect guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to really get going soon (and likely carry low ownership due to their slow starts).

Chicago Cubs vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), PIT

The Cubs are in a great spot against Trevor Williams and as a team, across 151 plate appearances against him, they are hitting .310 with eight home runs, a .681 wOBA+ISO, and are striking out just 11.9% of the time. Williams didn’t look great in his season debut against the Cardinals (3.2 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 ER, 3 K on 67 pitches) and will now have to take on a Cubs team whose .215 ISO against RHPs ranks 5th in the MLB. The 10 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley hurt this stack suggestion a little bit, but overall I think these guys can generate some very solid power against Williams. Anthony Rizzo is one of my favorite bats on the slate. Aside from him, I’d consider Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras, and Ian Happ as strong options. Would love to see David Bote get the start as well, as he’s been crushing in limited opportunities.

Oakland Athletics vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), SEA

The A’s stack hasn’t really come through yet this season, as they’ve only managed to score more than three runs in two of their six games. But maybe the offensive explosion can happen tonight. Since the end of 2017, Taijuan Walker has pitched just 17.1 innings in the MLB and he definitely didn’t look great in his season debut against the Astros when he gave up 5 ER on seven hits (one HR) in just 3.1 innings. If the A’s can retire Walker early, they’ll get plenty of innings against a Mariners bullpen that has allowed 2.30 HR/9 so far this season with a 6.00 ERA/5.45 xFIP. I would target guys in the heart of this A’s order with Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson. All three guys have above a 130 wRC+ so far this season.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

One-Off Hitters ☝️

C Christian Vazquez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs.Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

Vazquez essentially carried the Red Sox offense to a win on his own last night against the Mets when he belted two home runs for three RBI in what ended up being a 4-2 Boston victory. He’s now hitting .420 for the season with four homers and a .623 wOBA. He’ll face another lefty tonight in Jordan Montgomery, After having Tommy John surgery in 2018, Montgomery hasn’t seen extensive MLB action since. Vazquez has six homers and a massive 1.545 wOBA+ISO in his last 27 plate appearances against LHPs. Catcher isn’t a position I normally like to spend up at, but Vazquez has proven to be worth his lofty DK price tag and he’s still very affordable on FD.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

Ramirez is off to a very steady early season start with a .533 OBP and at least 7 DKFP in 6-of-7 games. He, of course, showed his immense ceiling on Sunday when he went 3-for-5 with two HRs, four RBI, and four runs -- good for 39 DKFP. A match-up with Randy Dobnak isn’t too concerning either. In his last 20 games against RHPs (48 plate appearances), Ramirez has hit .400 with five HRs and a 1.033 wOBA+ISO.

OF Sam Hilliard | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), SD

I wouldn’t want to go the entire newsletter without highlighting at least a piece of the Coors Field action. If you don’t want to stack all those expensive Padres and Rockies hitters, Hilliard is a pretty affordable bat you can insert into your lineups to get some skin in the Coors action. He wasn’t an everyday starter for Colorado last season but when he was in the lineup, he often came through… especially at home. In 44 at-bats at home in 2019, Hilliard posted a .318 AVG with a .467 wOBA, .455 ISO, and a 164 wRC+. Those are incredibly strong numbers, albeit a pretty small sample size. Regardless, as a lefty hitter, Hilliard should almost certainly be in the lineup against the righty Garrett Richards -- who is simply an average MLB starter at this point in his career.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), PIT

Damn, after no Stanton dinger last night, I’m still trying to get on the board with the 'Home Run Calls' this season. I’ve been a day too early on several guys and despite there being some easy bait with the Coors Field teams, I’m gonna go with my guy Rizzo. I mentioned already that he’s one of my favorite bats of the slate and he already has three homers off of righties this season in just 11 at-bats (17 PA) so I’ll say he knocks one out on Trevor Williams or one of those Pirate relievers tonight.

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