Top MLB DFS Plays 7/30 | Navigating a Full Slate on Trade Deadline Day!

July 30, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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The trade deadline has finally arrived and the precise 4 pm ET deadline will have come and gone by the time you’re reading this! We’ve seen quite a few shocking trades go down already ahead of today, with the Dodgers creating one of the biggest splashes in recent MLB trade history last night when they acquired two superstars from Washington, receiving both Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the cost of sending away several top prospects. Other notable moves include: Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays, Anthony Rizzo & Joey Gallo to the Yankees, Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, Starling Marte to the A’s, among others. And I'm sure more big moves will happen while I'm writing this newsletter. To see a full rundown of all the MLB trades, follow the link below:

Also, one more thing of note: the Blue Jays will play their first true home game in Toronto at the Rogers Centre for the first time in 670 days! Alright, we have a full 15-game main slate standing on deck for this evening so let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

How it felt watching all the trades in the last 24 hours...

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Not much to worry about today! Praise the baseball gods.

Best hitting environments: MIL @ ATL

Best pitching environments: BOS @ TB, NYY @ MIA, SEA @ TEX

KC @ TOR (7:07 ET, 10.5 O/U): For the first time in roughly 22 months, “@ TOR” will actually mean “at Toronto.” Sadly, I think that means we may see Toronto’s exciting offense (and teams visiting them) regress a bit since they had been playing in two temporary hitter-friendly ballparks that helped produce plenty of offense (TD Ballpark & Sahlen Field). Rogers Centre is still a solid home run park but a pretty neutral venue overall.

CIN @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): 10-15 mph winds in New York today but they’ll be blowing left to right at Citi Field, so no real advantage to hitters or pitchers either way.

MIL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Hottest game environments on the slate so bats deserve to get a bump. In typical Atlanta fashion, there is a low-end chance of a pop-up storm making its way over the stadium.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP) | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CLE

You’re clearly paying the premium if you want to go Lynn today, but you also know what you’re highly likely to get out of him. Typically, he’s going to toss around 100 pitches, cover six or seven innings of work, record 6+ Ks, limit runs, and put himself in a good position to earn a win and quality start. If he does all that, you should get about 25 DKFP/45 FDFP out of him. He’s been even better at home this year where, across 11 starts and 66.0 IP, Lynn holds a 6-2 record, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 29% kRate, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent .169 AVG/.226 wOBA. The Cleveland Indians have provided a lot of strikeouts to opposing pitcher lately (27.3% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, 2nd highest) without producing much offense (68 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 28th). They’ve also recently traded two of their routine hitters, sending Eddie Rosario to Atlanta and Cesar Hernandez to today’s opponent, the White Sox. Barring some last minute trade going down while I write this, Cleveland didn’t exactly get much offensive help back in return via trades so we should expect their struggles to continue. The White Sox are the heaviest favorites on the slate (-230 ML) and Cleveland has just a 3.5 implied run total.

Patrick Sandoval (LHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. OAK

Something is really starting to click for Sandoval. He narrowly missed out on a no-hitter in his last start on Saturday against the Twins but ultimately came away with a one-hit, one-earned run performance across 8.2 IP (108 pitches) which netted him 45 DKFP/72 FDFP. Yesterday, LineStar implemented a new feature showing the average number of pitches thrown by SPs over their previous five and 20 starts. While Sandoval has only averaged 75 pitches over his last 20 games, he’s going much deeper into games lately and leads the slate with 103 pitches/gm over his last five starts. In that same five game stretch, he has posted an excellent 32% kRate and 0.92 WHIP. The Oakland A’s are certainly capable of giving LHPs some problems so Sandoval does carry some risk due to the match-up. But, given his recent workload and improved kRate, he should draw some legitimate consideration out of the mid-range.

Logan Gilbert (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ TEX

A Texas Rangers lineup without the threat of Joey Gallo (traded to NYY) just may be the best match-up a pitcher could ask for these days. Adolis Garcia was hot early in the year but his production has fallen off a cliff (.190 AVG, .253 wOBA, 2 HRs over the last month) and there just isn’t really anyone else to be scared of in this lineups aside from maaaaybe Nate Lowe. After a rough initial start to his MLB rookie campaign, Gilbert has settled in and has produced some really nice outings over the last couple of months. Since May 31st (nine starts, 46.0 IP), Gilbert has posted a strong 2.93 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 30.4% kRate, 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent .201 AVG/.258 wOBA. The current projected Rangers lineup has six hitters who have a >25% kRate vs. RHPs (four with a >31% kRate) and six hitters with a sub-.290 wOBA vs. RHPs. The Rangers head into this evening with a slate-low 3.3 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

All 30 teams are in action today so I’m going to forego mentioning any one or two “top stacks” to target. BUT… I do like the homecoming narrative for the Toronto Blue Jays today and they currently lead the slate with a 5.8 implied run total vs. rookie left hander Daniel Lynch.

Detroit Tigers vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

In his two starts since the All-Star Break, Matt Harvey has thrown 12 scoreless innings and has allowed five total base runners (4 H, 1 BB). Now, has he turned a corner, or is he fooling us all? After watching him pitch several times this season, I’m going to go with the latter assumption. Despite back-to-back scoreless starts, Harvey’s ERA still sits at 6.65 alongside a 1.58 WHIP and .355 opp wOBA. The Tigers bats have been very hot lately and this offense has accounted for a .355 wOBA, .210 ISO, and 125 wRC+ over the last two weeks. I would look for some more production from the one thru six hitters today (Baddoo, Schoop, Grossman, Cabrera, Candelario, Haase).

Chicago White Sox vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

Mejia is getting torched this season and has racked up a 7.52 ERA, .367 opp wOBA, and is allowing a 48.3% HardHit%. He’s been particularly bad against lefty hitters. Against that side of the plate, Mejia has a 9.39 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, .429 wOBA, and a 3.13 HR/9 Rate. Now, he is getting very unlucky, evidenced by his 4.02 xFIP (4.83 xFIP vs. LHBs), which is clearly much lower than his actual ERA. But, despite the recent offensive struggles for the White Sox and the capable Cleveland bullpen backing up Mejia, they’ll have some nice potential today and will have their new offensive weapon, Cesar Hernandez, slotting in towards the top of the order batting second.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

The Dodgers have every right to be a popular stack tonight but I doubt they will be on this full 15-game slate. Aside from the sort of unintentional bias among a large portion of MLB DFS players held against stacking West Coast offenses, the match-up with Zac Gallen isn’t necessarily one that jumps off the page. While he has been struggling lately, he still has a 27% kRate to his name and a not-horrible 4.14 xFIP. There have been plenty of big news surrounding the Dodgers over the last 24 hours, but the fact that they’re set to get Corey Seager back in the lineup today after a 2 1/2 month long absence may be a bit of news that is flying under the radar. The Dodgers led the league with a 120 wRC+ vs. RHPs when Seager was healthy this season and he should provide a boost to an already strong offense. This lineup is going to be truly absurd once they get the newly acquired Trea Turner involved and once Mookie Betts (hip) returns from the IL.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

1B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), TEX

1B Trey Mancini | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Carlos Carrrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B Cesar Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

OF Brent Rooker | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

OF Harrison Bader | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

OF Ben Gamel | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C JT Realmuto | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

Crowe has had some rough reverse splits this season and is allowing RHBs to hit for a .322 AVG, .414 wOBA, and a .274 ISO which has led to a 2.88 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. JT Realmuto is not a tremendously good reverse splits hitter but he has posted a respectable .339 wOBA and .162 ISO vs. RHPs this season with an 18.8% HR/FB rate, 35.6% Hard Contact, and nine home runs. The main appeal here is the chance to take advantage of Crowe’s awful reverse splits. Realmuto will be leading off today and could get three cracks at Crowe so he’ll be a pretty decent bet to get one over the fence.

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