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Top MLB DFS Plays 7/30 | Ballin' Out on a Thursday
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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We’ve officially tallied seven days worth of Major League Baseball in the 2020 season. Now us sports addicts get to enjoy the NBA restarting its season with a two-game doubleheader tonight. Hockey fans have the NHL back in action in two days and, while the PGA has been back in full swing for about six weeks now, the first Major of the season is a week away then the following week golfers will head into the playoff stretch. Despite the fact that we’re all experiencing professional sports a little differently these days, it is great to have them back in our lives! Tonight we’ll have a solid eight-game MLB main slate to draw our attention, so let’s get into it!
Tonight’s games with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
TB @ ATL: Much like yesterday, there’s potential for pop-up showers. That comes with the territory of Atlanta being located in the hot/humid southeast. We’ll have a better idea what to expect closer to first pitch (7:10 ET).
KC @ DET: Winds blowing out to right @ 10 mph. Slight bump to bats.
BOS @ NYM: Slight chances (15-20%) of some showers throughout this game. Some sort of delay is possible. Postponement really unlikely.
NYY @ BAL: Slight rain chances which begin to increase later in this game. It’ll be worth checking the radar once we get closer to first pitch (7:05 ET).
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Dinelson Lamet (RHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ SF
Since the start of 2019, no other pitcher on this slate has a higher kRate than Lamet (33.8%) and only Shane Bieber’s 3.14 xFIP rates out better than Lamet’s 3.32 xFIP in that same time frame. Considering all of the match-ups that the four most expensive pitchers have tonight, I believe we have to look at Lamet as the most ‘cash safe’ high-end pitcher for lineups. In his season opener versus the D-Backs, Lamet racked up eight strikeouts across five one-run innings on 80 pitches and earned the win -- good for 25.7 DKFP/42 FDFP. In his second start of the season, we should probably expect Lamet’s pitch count to be more in the 90-100 range. Despite the Giants putting up seven runs on the scoreboard last night, much of that production came against the bullpen and their lineup, as a whole, isn’t one to be fearful of. Lamet and the Padres will be one of the heaviest favorites of the night with -170 odds to win.
Ross Stripling (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ ARI
The threat of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts doing something funky with his starting pitchers is always a concern, but he let Stripling go for 92 pitches across seven innings last Friday against the Giants. Stripling turned that outing into a win while only allowing one run and striking out seven batters while earning 29.4 DKFP/49 FDFP. If given the same sort of leash tonight, a similar performance could happen against a struggling Arizona team that is averaging just 2.83 runs/game (29th in MLB) thru six games. The Diamondbacks are hitting just 34-for-165 (.206 AVG) against RHPs so far with a .258 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and a 25.1% kRate. In those 165 at-bats, they have just one home run off of RHPs as well. Since the start of 2019, Stripling has posted a very solid 3.55 xFIP, 25.3% kRate, 1.11 WHIP, and allowed just a .287 wOBA. Again, the only concern here is the workload Stripling will be given, especially since he has bounced around between the starter and reliever roles with the Dodgers, but the 92 pitches in his season debut is clearly a good sign.
Ryan Yarbrough (LHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL
There isn’t a great selection of value pitchers tonight, so I wouldn’t recommend messing with any of these guys in cash games. But so far in this young season, the Braves are hitting just 9-for-51 (.176 AVG) against LHPs and have struck out a lofty 36.4% of the time. Of course, that is a very, very small sample size to be using in reference to an entire team but Atlanta has clearly been having its fair share of issues with southpaw pitching. Yarbrough only threw 69 pitches across 5.1 innings in his first start of the year against Toronto. While he only accrued 11 DKFP/19 FDFP, he didn’t play poorly considering he allowed zero runs on four hits. The strikeouts simply didn’t work out in his favor, as he only threw one in that season opening performance. While Yarbrough isn’t a prolific strikeout specialist, he has a decent 21.3% kRate over his last 20 starts, so one strikeout across 5+ innings should definitely be considered an outlier performance. Yarbrough has a slate-leading 0.99 WHIP (since start of 2019) and if he can get closer to 80-85 pitches today, he could churn out a strong fantasy performance if the Braves continue to display a weakness against LHPs.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Chalk Stacks: New York Yankees & Kansas City Royals (DK) -- DraftKings refuses to raise the salaries on the Royals for some reason.
New York Mets vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS
Perez’s first start of the season was a rough one (5 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 2 K on 84 pitches) and since the start of last year, he holds a slate-worst 1.52 WHIP alongside a 5.18 ERA, 5.04 SIERA, and a low 18% kRate. Again, small sample sizes and all that, but the Mets have posted a .366 wOBA (ranks 8th) and 144 wRC+ (ranks 7th) versus LHPs this season. Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Ahmed Rosario (if batting lead-off) are some solid targets to build your Mets stacks around.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), ARI
If people are spending up on a pricey stack, they’re likely going to heavily gravitate towards the Yankees (for good reason). This should make plenty of these Dodgers go overlooked and underowned -- therefore making them a solid leverage stack for GPPs. Robbie Ray only made it 3.2 innings (on 97 pitches) in his 2020 debut against the Padres last Saturday. He still racked up seven strikeouts but showed some control issues, allowing three walks and four hits resulting in a 1.91 WHIP. Ray did have pretty solid starts in all five of his games against the Dodgers in 2019 (29.1 IP) as he allowed just a .228 AVG and struck out 32.8% of LAD batters. But he still gave up 15 ER (4.60 ERA) and six HRs (1.8 HR/9) and that was without having to deal with 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts in the batter’s box. The D-Backs also have had one of the worst bullpens thus far in 2020 -- in 20.1 IP, they have a 1.72 WHIP, 5.75 ERA, and 5.11 SIERA. This is still mostly a contrarian stack option because most of the Dodger bats aren’t cheap, but I’m willing to bet they’ll all be <10% owned... or at least not far off from there. I would feel most comfortable focusing on Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Corey Seager. But, despite struggling most of the first seven days of the season, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are two big bats that could explode at any time. They’ll still cost ya a pretty penny though.
San Diego Padres vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF
You may want to max out your Padres stacks with just two or three guys, since there are several guys in the lineup who are off to a very slow start. But certain pieces of this order are really carrying the team early on and their overall 123 wRC+ ranks 5th in the MLB. Gasuman is coming off of a really rocky 2019 season where he transitioned from starter to primarily a relief role between his two teams (ATL & CIN) and across 102.1 IP he posted a poor 5.72 ERA (but a decent 4.02 xFIP), 1.42 WHIP, and 1.32 HR/9. He can be a solid pitcher at times but he didn’t look all that great in his season debut (4 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 ER on 58 pitches), though that was against a tough Dodgers team. The Giants bullpen, as a whole, has also struggled -- across 31.1 IP this season they have posted a 1.44 WHIP and 5.42 xFIP (4th worst) so the Padres could have another evening where they string together 5+ runs once again. Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, and Manny Machado are the primary options I’d focus on. Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Edward Olivares would be riskier secondary options (note: the latter two may not even end up in the starting order).
The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
Cleveland Indians vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), MIN
One-Off Hitters ☝️
OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA
Through 24 at-bats this season, Mike Trout is hitting .290 with four RBI and a .353 wOBA. For 97% of the league, that would be a start they’d be happy with through their first six games. Not so much for Trout. But he is coming off of a 3-for-4 night and will face a pitcher this evening who he’s had plenty of success against. In 33 PA, Trout is hitting .429 with two HRs and an .852 wOBA+ISO against Marco Gonzales. Most people aren’t going to want to pay up for him right now but we know he’s capable of hitting knocking multiple home runs out the park on any given night. So, at least for GPPs, he makes for an excellent high-end one-off target.
2B/OF Whit Merrifield | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ivan Nova (RHP), DET
I’ll keep highlighting Merrifield until he just stops coming through. He has simply been bullying Detroit pitchers in this series, going 6-for-13 (.462 AVG) with two doubles, two home runs, zero strikeouts, and a 325 wRC+. He is playing in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park once again, against a below average starting pitcher in Ivan Nova, and the wind is blowing out to right at around 10 mph. While you probably want to get some Royals stacks going tonight, especially on DK, if you’re only taking one bat from this lineup, Merrifield seems to be the one you’d want.
2B/3B David Fletcher | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA
I usually don’t aim to feature two one-off batters on the same team but consider me a fan of a little Trout/Fletcher mini-stack tonight as they will (more than likely) be hitting 1st and 2nd in the Angels order. Fletcher has been terrific this season, hitting 10-for-23 (.435) with a .500 OBP and 191 wRC+ thru six games. In a larger sample size, he’s been very serviceable against LHPs, with a .283 AVG against lefties since the start of 2019 and in those 211 plate appearances, he has struck out just 5.2% of the time. He’ll be a difficult guy for Marco Gonzales to get out and Fletcher already has a .364 AVG against him across 25 career plate appearances. He’s a quality affordable bat for this slate.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL
Me and the “On Deck” guys have to get out of the Home Run Call slump to start the year at some point, so it’ll be all easy mode tonight. Somebody needs to get some free LineStar merch! Stanton has a ridiculous .357 ISO against LHPs in his last 265 plate appearances and John Means allowed a .201 ISO and 1.55 HR/9 to RHBs last season. So, please, for the love of all that is holy… hit a dinger tonight Stanton!
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