Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/3 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 6:02 Yu Darvish & Cubs Bats

• 9:18 Spending Up For Sale

• 16:00 Yankees Offense

• 18:10 Nick Pivetta @ ATL

• 23:40 Astros Value

• 25:46 Clevinger @ KC

• 29:43 Walker Buehler vs. D’backs

• 31:55 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Welcome to another huge day filled with baseball action! We’re now a day away from July 4th festivities and only a few days out from the All-Star Break. As long and grinding as the MLB season can be, it’s pretty wild that we’re basically half-way through it all. It’s been a fun one and I’m ready to see what the second half of the season has in store. There are several weather issues to monitor today and, as we saw yesterday, pesky pop-up storms and rapidly forming systems can bring an abrupt cancellation to a game. So without further adieu, let’s go!

Wednesday match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

MIL @ CIN: A lot of pop-up storms around that could roll over the stadium. Seems like a moderate risk simply because there’s a large window where nasty weather may occur. Check what the more qualified weather guys have to say about this one once we get closer to lock. Seems like the biggest trouble spot of the day with the most legitimate postponement risk.

MIA @ WAS: Isolated storms could bring a delay into play but postponement seems really unlikely. Still, this is a Washington team that has goofed up weather-related situations already this year, so monitor with care.

CLE @ KC: A line of storms could find their way over the ballpark but there’s no clear indication that will happen right now. Simply another spot to check an updated forecast for once we’re closer to game time.

CHC @ PIT: Storms near the area could cause a delay but not incredibly likely.

PHI @ ATL: Slight risk of a passing storm but the primary mention here is due to the hot/humid weather with 5-10 mph winds blowing out. Nice conditions for hitters.

LAA @ TEX and HOU @ COL: Your typical great hitting conditions will be available once again in these two ballparks.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Walker Buehler (DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.1k) | RHP | LAD vs. ARI

The expectation is that Buehler should carry similar upside to Chris Sale but will run you about $1k less on both sites. Buehler handles players really well from both sides of the plate, allowing just a .257 wOBA to lefties, .267 wOBA to righties while maintaining at least a 25% kRate and sub-1.00 WHIP against all hitters. On average, he puts up better numbers at home this year which has resulted in an additional +5.5 DKFP when pitching in Dodger Stadium. The D-Backs are a pretty mediocre team against RHPs, as they have a team .312 wOBA (17th) and 89 wRC+ (22nd). Buehler pitched an eight inning, two hit, one run, 11 strikeout gem against them a month ago, so you know he is capable of a slate-busting performance. Arizona’s 3.4 implied run total is the lowest among all teams today and the Dodgers are healthy -230 home favorites.

Mike Clevinger (DK: $9.7k, FD: $9k) | RHP | CLE @ KC

If you’re prepared to take on the risk, Clevinger’s ceiling is about as high as anyone else’s today. He’s been pretty brutal in his last two starts returning off of injuries, but assuming he is somewhere near 100%, he should be able to snap back into form at some point… right? That is the hope, anyhow. He has just four starts on the year and 18.1 total innings pitched, but his 5.89 ERA doesn’t look nearly as bad when you consider his elite 2.85 xFIP. Also, he’s still boasting a ridiculous 41.3% kRate. That number will surely come back down to earth as he continues to garner more starts. But considering how important strikeouts are in DFS, if you are making even just three or four lineups tonight, I think you should take a chance on Clevinger in at least one. If you’re a single lineup type of guy, maybe look elsewhere.

Cal Quantrill (DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k) | RHP | SD vs. SF

You remember the scene from Breaking Bad when Jesse cries to the heavens “He can’t keep getting away with this!!!”? That’s how I feel about the Giants right now after they’ve managed to score at least ten runs three games in a row. Now Quantrill isn’t great by any means, but he’s pitched well across his last four appearances in relief (5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, .190 AVG, 20% kRate) and is almost too cheap to not at least be given a look as an SP2 in GPPs. Quantrill has a solid 50.5% Ground Ball Rate on the season and a not-so-terrible 20.1% kRate. He has extremely traditional splits, meaning he handles RHBs very well (.220 wOBA, .085 ISO, 27% kRate) but has struggled mightily with LHBs (.421 wOBA, .277 ISO, 15.6% kRate). Giants primary lefty bats include Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford -- not exactly a Murderers Row for Quantrill to deal with. If he can manage those guys, we could reasonably expect a solid outing across five or six innings of work. The Padres are -130 home favorites with a 3.9 implied run total being held by the Giants.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Notice: With an extremely lofty 14.5 run total between the Astros (7.6 implied runs) and Rockies (6.9 implied runs), they are two obvious stacks to target (if you can afford them) and won’t be detailed in this section.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP, Milwaukee Brewers)

First off, remember that this is the game that is (currently) the riskiest game of the day, in terms of postponement potential. It seems that it is more likely they get this game in than not, so I’m keeping it in play for now.

Chacin hasn’t been great in general this season but his numbers take a significant dive when he pitches away from home. Chacin is 1-7 in his eight road games due in part to a 6.94 ERA, 5.76 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and .295 opponent batting average. His 45.1% Hard Contact allowed is the highest mark among all (traditional) starters on the slate today. Great American Ball Park is an excellent hitting environment and the batters towards the top half of this Reds order are really starting to heat up. I’d once again look to roll out Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, and Nick Senzel.

Seattle Mariners vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Going back to attacking another pitcher who has been awful on the road this season, we have Adam Wainwright who has a 6.56 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and .288 opponent batting average. Even since trading away their best power hitter in Edwin Encarnacion, Seattle has remained a sneaky strong team against RHPs, as they have been all season. In 384 plate appearances against RHPs in the last two weeks, Seattle has a team .349 wOBA (7th), .199 ISO (10th), and 124 wRC+ (7th). Considering Wainwright has allowed a .421 wOBA and .264 ISO to LHBs, I’d likely turn my focus towards the lefty bats when picking guys in this Mariners order. Daniel Vogelbach, JP Crawford, and Omar Narvaez all have at least a .388 wOBA and 151 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.

Chicago White Sox vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP, Detroit Tigers)

The Tigers are rolling out 24-year-old southpaw Tyler Anderson, who will be making his Major League debut tonight. In 14 triple-A starts this year, Alexander had an awful 2-9 record along with a 6.23 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .308 opponent batting average, and allowed 2.08 HR/9. Pretty rough! He does seem to throw a decent amount of strikeouts (25.8% kRate) but everything else looks sketchy, at best. Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and James McCann have been the best White Sox hitters against LHPs as of late.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Shohei Ohtani (DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k) | OF | vs. RHP Ariel Jurado

Early on in Ohtani’s MLB career, he has played nine games at Globe Life Park. In his 25 at-bats at GLP he is batting .400 with a .561 wOBA, .520 ISO, 1.384 OPS, paired with four home runs and nine RBI. Ohtani got the day off yesterday due to the lefty on lefty match-up with Mike Minor but he still came in and got a pinch hit late in the game. Expect him back in the thick of things as mediocre RHP Ariel Jurado takes the hill today. Ohtani is coming in extremely hot, batting .500 in the last week, with a trio of homers. He’s posting an average exit velocity of 96.6 mph (top 95%) versus RHPs in the last two weeks as well. If he gets his bat under one today, it likely leaves the park. Ohtani will be my home run call of the day. 💣

Ian Desmond (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. LHP Wade Miley

Desmond isn’t an every day starter but he should get another nod in the order today and, all things considered, he’s a very affordable Coors Field bat on both sites. Desmond has been absolutely crushing left-handed pitching. On the year against lefties, he’s hitting .337 with a .449 wOBA and .366 ISO with eight home runs. More recently, in the last month against LHPs (41 at-bats), he’s hitting an extremely stout .463 with a .563 wOBA, .439 ISO on 45.5% Hard Contact and mixing in four homers, six doubles, and 14 RBI in that span. Miley has been solid for much of this season but he is averaging 54.9% less fantasy points on the road and the Coors Field factor is obviously in play here.

Tommy Edman (DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k) | DK: 2B/3B, FD: SS | vs. RHP Mike Leake

With Matt Carpenter still on the mend and a righty taking the hill for Seattle, Edman should see a lead-off role tonight. And if that is indeed the case, he’ll come in as a great value option to deploy. Edman is a switch hitter who has been much more effective batting lefty versus righties. It’s not a significant sample size, but against RHPs this season, he is hitting .304 with a .409 wOBA and .348 ISO on 52.6% Hard Contact. Mike Leake isn’t particularly dominant against lefties, allowing a .282 AVG, .353 wOBA, and .212 ISO on 40.7% Hard Contact. You won’t need much from Edman tonight for him to return quality dividends.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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