Top MLB DFS Plays 7/29 | Short Slate Shenanigans

July 29, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We’ve got us a spicy little five-game MLB main slate heading our way this evening. As far as small slates go, this one looks pretty solid on the surface. Pitching isn’t great but, ya know… it could be worse. Several offenses really stand out and I’d say there are five or six stack options that really have some strong potential. It’s been a while since the main slate this small has landed on the docket so here’s a friendly reminder: don’t avoid rostering certain players *solely* for the fact that they’re going to be highly owned, aka “chalk.” For some reason, many DFS players associate “chalk” with “do not play.” That can backfire very quickly. The highly owned plays are popular for a reason and in GPPs, even on a small slate, it’s easy to mix in some chalk with some lower-owned pitchers, one-offs, and non-traditional stacks in order to differentiate yourself from the crowd. The newsletter may be a bit shorter today without as many games to cover, but let’s go ahead get into it!

Reminder: The MLB trade deadline is tomorrow at 4 pm ET. Expect quite a few notable moves to be made (on top of the ones that have already transpired) over the next 24 hours! Stay on top of the latest trades via the link below.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Unfortunately, this main slate is not 100% in the clear on the weather front today. Two games have moderately high late start/in-game delay risk with a low-end chance of a PPD.

Best hitting environments: BAL @ DET, TOR @ BOS

Best pitching environments: OAK @ LAA, COL @ SD

MIL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Around a 20-30% chance of precipitation throughout this game with scattered storms in the area. A postponement would seem very unlikely but the chance of an in-game delay does currently bring a little extra risk to the starting pitchers. Check this forecast closer to lock. Also, there will be light winds blowing out to left.

BAL @ DET (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Early lingering rain could force a late start but it’s not overly likely. Solid hitting conditions with warm-ish temps and 10 mph winds blowing out to center field.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Boston could see some light rain early but some heavier stuff arrives late, possibly (hopefully) after the game is over. I believe if it’s around the 7th or 8th inning when the heavy rain arrives, they’ll probably just play through it. But a PPD scenario is not totally out of the picture, so just be aware. We’ll also have to check this forecast once we get closer to the first pitch. There will be 10+ mph winds blowing out to left field as well.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $9.7k | @ PIT

Currently, I’d expect Peralta to come in as the most popular pitcher on the slate. He leads all ten starting pitchers today with a 2.29 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .230 wOBA, 35% kRate, and 14.5% SwStr% -- all elite numbers. His 3.71 xFIP is roughly a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA, so that tells us he has gotten a bit fortunate this year, but it’s still not an awful number by any means. The Pirates have not provided opposing pitchers with a high amount of strikeouts, and their 21.8% kRate vs. RHPs in 2021 is the 4th lowest in the league. However, they are of course one of the least dangerous offenses in baseball with just an 87 wRC+ (ranks 25th) and a .299 wOBA (23rd) vs. RHPs. Peralta has done well to rack up seven strikeouts in each of his two previous starts against the Pirates this season and as long as he keeps the walks under control (5.7 BB/9 L5Gms), then he could certainly end the night as the slate’s highest scoring pitcher.

Reminder: There is currently some in-game delay risk here so monitor the forecast in Pittsburgh.

Frankie Montas (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAA

The Angels added another key offensive contributor to the IL yesterday with Jared Walsh dealing with an apparent side injury. Without Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and now Jared Walsh available, this Angels offense becomes much less scary on paper. Really, the only hitters who I think could give Montas some legitimate trouble are Shohei Ohtani (obviously) and Max Stassi... maybe David Fletcher, but he's more of a player who just goes out there and bats for average rather than power. If he can navigate around those guys, Montas has some nice upside today. He’s already played the Angels twice this season and put up strong performances in both games, resulting in 23 DKFP/38 FDFP (May 29th) and 28 DKFP/49 FDFP (June 15th). Over his last three games, Montas has racked up 10 Ks twice and has a massive 37% kRate in that span alongside a 2.89 ERA, 2.34 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and .276 wOBA. I like his chances to keep the momentum rolling against this watered down Angels lineup.

Chad Kuhl (RHP) | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MIL

I’m not too interested in Kuhl at that $8,200 price on FanDuel, but if you don’t feel great about the incoming Joe Musgrove SP2 chalk on DraftKings, you could consider making a pivot to Kuhl, who has been pitching quite well lately. Over his last six starts (32.2 IP), Kuhl has maintained a low 2.48 ERA alongside a 1.13 WHIP, 23.6% kRate, and a .216 AVG/.299 wOBA while stranding 87.2% of base runners. His 4.16 xFIP in that span is a little concerning, but that’s not horrible coming from a guy who is priced at $6,400. The bad news here is that Milwaukee has been hitting and scoring well lately and they’ve plated at least six runs in 7-of-10 games since the All-Star Break. But if Kuhl can hold them to three runs or fewer in his time on the mound, he’ll have some decent strikeout potential as the Brewers do hold a high 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs this season. He’s not an overly safe investment, but he has pitched significantly better at home this year and I can definitely imagine getting five or six strong innings of work out of Kuhl tonight. The salary savings (on DK) would obviously open up more room to spend up on bats.

Reminder: There is currently some in-game delay risk here so monitor the forecast in Pittsburgh.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

Oddly enough, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Detroit Tigers come away as the most popular stack on the slate. I’ll certainly have some exposure. The Toronto Blue Jays have cooled off a bit lately and have a not-so-easy pitching match-up with Eduardo Rodriguez, but they’re capable of scoring 10+ runs with multiple homers anywhere, anytime.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Stacking against Kyle Freeland has not been a profitable venture as of late. He has actually been holding his own recently and has posted a 2.17 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last five starts, three of which came in Coors Field. However, the regression monster has to arrive at some point and it could possibly show up today in San Diego. Freeland has a lackluster 4.76 xFIP on the season and has allowed a slate-high .368 wOBA and 7.0% Barrel%. His high 26% Line Drive% and low .254 BABIP over the last month is also a sign that he’s been getting fortunate with where batted balls have been going. The Padres haven’t been particularly effective against LHPs but that won’t stop me from having significant interest in the top half of their order. There is nothing scary about the Rockies mediocre bullpen either.

Boston Red Sox vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

Ryu has shown some concerning statcast data lately, particularly when it comes to his 32.3% Line Drive % and 36.9% Hard Contact % (over the last month). Most line drives fall for hits and, for reference, league average LD% for pitchers is usually around 20%. Ryu’s strikeouts are also down lately (17.2% kRate L5Gms) and Boston is already a difficult team to strikeout (21.4% kRate vs. LHPs, 3rd lowest). When facing Toronto this year, Boston, as a team, has accounted for a .355 wOBA, .245 ISO, and a 122 wRC+. They’re a top 10 offense against LHPs and have put up some big games against the Blue Jays throughout the season.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

It’s safe by no means, but rolling with some Rockies bats would be a good way to get some ownership leverage on this small slate. Joe Musgrove is likely going to be a very popular option today, especially as an SP2 target on DraftKings. But it doesn’t take anything more than viewing his game logs to see how inconsistent he has been lately. Over his previous five starts, Musgrove has amassed a 6.20 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, and 17.4% kRate while opponents are hitting for a .300 AVG and .359 wOBA. Now, I do believe he could easily bounce back today because he’s certainly a better pitcher than what the data has been showing. But the Rockies are also coming into this game swinging some hot bats and have scored 19 runs in their last two games. You don't necessarily have to go crazy here with four and five man stacks to be ‘different.’ Even just two or three-man Colorado stacks will be scarcely owned.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

C/OF Eric Haase | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Charlie Blackmon | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Adam Frazier | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Avisail Garcia | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

2B Willi Castro | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

I decided not to get too cute today and simply roll with one of the best home run hitters in the league with El Niño. By his standards, Tatis Jr. really hasn’t been smashing LHPs all that well this year: 72 at-bats, .250 AVG, .372 wOBA, .333 ISO, 136 wRC+, with six home runs. Still, relatively ‘so-so’ numbers for Tatis Jr. would be phenomenal averages for 97% of the rest of the league. Freeland is giving up a .211 ISO, 36.4% Hard Contact, and 1.76 HR/9 to RHBs this year. And, despite not having the most insane numbers against southpaws, Tatis Jr. is creating 48.9% Hard Contact against LHPs and he has already homered off of Freeland before. I’ll look for him to get one, maybe two, tonight!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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