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- Top MLB DFS Plays 7/29 | An Intriguing Half-Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays 7/29 | An Intriguing Half-Slate!
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Welcome back to another Monday edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! We kick off the work week with a modest seven game set. There is still plenty to unpack and, for a smaller slate, we have a bit of an atypical amount of strong pitching options at our disposal. The Rockies also return home from their 12 day road trip so Coors Field is back in play (…yay?). Best of luck to you all today, let’s get this one rolling!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Report 🌧️
PIT @ CIN: This is really the only game that carries notable weather risk at this time. A slow-moving line of storms is set to head towards Cincinnati leading up to the 7 pm ET start time. The hope is that most of the nastier stuff holds off, at least until after they can get this game in. Definitely give the Cincy forecast outlook a glance once we get closer to this game starting up. I won’t be avoiding these players for now.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Chris Paddack (DK: $10.2k, FD: $8.9k) | RHP | SD vs. BAL
Recommending Paddack can often times be a hard sell. The Padres have taken a bit of a cautious approach with their rookie ace and have not allowed him to throw over 100 pitches in any game this year, usually he’ll land in the 85-95 area of the pitch count. Despite the slight limitations, he has still shown an incredible ceiling after hitting the 40 DKFP/65 FDFP mark earlier in the season. A major draw towards him today is the fact that he will be taking the mound at home where he has been dominant. In 42 innings pitched at Petco Park he is rocking a 2.36 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP while throwing 32.3% strikeouts and holding hitters to a .166 AVG/.214 wOBA. The Orioles have been really crushing it lately and are hitting home runs at a pretty alarming rate but Petco Park is not a hitter-friendly environment at all, so we could see some expected regression. Paddack’s 1.07 HR/9 at home is also significantly better than his 1.70 HR/9 on the road so, while he does allow quite a bit of hard contact, I would imagine the risk of him surrendering multiple dingers is greatly reduced tonight.
Sonny Gray (DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.2k) | RHP | CIN vs. PIT
First, I want to quickly remind people that this is the game that carries some delay risk so remember to check on the forecast closer to game time. Assuming they avoid any significant issues in Cincy, I’m all about rolling out Sonny Gray today even if he is set to be pretty chalky. He’s just been absolutely dialed in lately. Over the last month (five starts, 33.1 IP) he has posted a basement level 1.62 ERA, 2.61 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP while hurling 33.9% strikeouts and holding batters to a .167 AVG/.216 wOBA. The match-ups he faced were not cakewalks either: Cubs (twice), Brewers (twice), and the Rockies (at Coors!). The Pirates are struggling to put up even three runs in many games lately. They’ve really struggled against RHPs on the road where, over the last 30 days, they have a weak .106 team ISO and an awful 61 wRC+. Pittsburgh does have a lot of guys who will rarely strike out but I still believe Gray can land in that seven to ten strikeout range in this match-up. The Reds will also be heavy favorites at home (-185) so we should certainly be hoping for a win here from Gray.
Jaime Barria (DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.2k) | RHP | LAA vs. DET
While there may be several great options at the top of DFS pricing tonight, value is really lacking. Not much of a surprise with only 14 teams in play. Jaime Barria is about as low as I’m willing to go on both sites today. His three poor 2019 outings have all come on the road so we should be able to trust him with relative confidence against a poor Detroit offense. It’s a small sample size for this season, but in 17.2 home innings, Barria has a 2.04 ERA, which is a bit deceiving when you consider his 3.92 xFIP but that’s still far from terrible. He’s also limiting base runners with just a 0.91 WHIP and is throwing for a strong 26.5% kRate. Looking back to last year, he was considerably better when pitching in Angel Stadium, so there is some merit to those 2019 figures. Also, we know how bad Detroit is… I don’t really think I need to mention any stats. They’re 1-12 in their last 13 games and haven’t scored over two runs in six straight games. As long as Barria can get through five innings, he will likely find himself in line for a win considering the Angels are the heaviest favorite of the day (-240).
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Coors Field Notice: As usual, I won’t detail either the Dodgers (6.8 implied runs) or Rockies (6.2 implied runs) in this section. They’re defaulted as top potential team stacks -- though I don’t think I’ll personally be forcing *too* many Coors bats into my lineups today. Maybe some one-offs or two man stacks but I just don’t have a great feeling about the over hitting on that 13 run line. They'll probably prove me wrong though.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Jordan Zimmermann (RHP), DET
If you’re wondering why Jordan Zimmermann is still allowed to pitch in the Majors, you’re not alone. He started off the year with two serviceable starts but since April 9th (11 starts, 47 IP) he has a towering 9.57 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, and is allowing a .368 AVG/.430 wOBA alongside 44.7% Hard Contact. If he makes it beyond four innings I’d be pretty shocked, so the Angels should expect to see plenty of action from the non-threatening Detroit bullpen. You can target the usual 1-4 hitters (Fletcher, Trout, Ohtani/Calhoun, Upton) but I also think there’s some potential value to be had towards the bottom of the order. In particular, the power hitting Matt Thaiss who has knocked out three homers in his last three games.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), PIT
NOTE: Lyles was just traded... but this is looking like a bullpen game now, so it's still a good target tonight!
It may end up being a bad day for pitchers named Jordan. Lyles hasn’t been a reliable pitcher for over two months now. Dating back to his last nine starts (36.2 IP) since May 23rd, Lyles has a 9.57 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, and allows a massive 2.90 HR/9 along with a .341 AVG/.450 wOBA and 27.9% HR/FB. I think we’ll see him right the ship at some point because his 4.66 xFIP is nearly five runs lower than his ERA in that time and the .400 BABIP is also due to regress. But for now, I’ll roll some Reds bats against him and hope his struggles continue. Expect Josh VanMeter to be the chalkiest bat of the day (maybe worth a GPP fade, but it’d be a scary one). Aside from him, I’d be fine rolling out Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Joey Votto and some sprinkles of Scooter Gennett as we continue to wait on him to break out in 2019.
Miami Marlins vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI
When the Marlins are highlighted here, just know I do so reluctantly and more for game theory purposes. On a half-slate like today, it can be tough to be ‘different.’ I believe many people will roll Kelly out at pitcher today and, by all means, he has a wide pathway to a great outing. However, he has shown struggles on the road where he has a 5.67 xFIP and is throwing just 14.1% of strikeouts with a 9.5% Walk Rate. Kelly is also coming off an outing where he got shelled by Baltimore across just 2.1 innings (7 ER, 8 H, 3 HRs) so maybe he’ll struggle to shake that off. I would say to target more of a two-man stack here with Miami but I do believe they can put up four or five runs (that is asking a lot from this team). Some run contributors could be Starlin Castro, Jorge Alfaro, and Brian Anderson -- those three all have at least a 99 wRC+ and above a .317 wOBA versus RHPs over the last month. Nothing to write home about but at least they’ve been average/above average MLB players.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Max Muncy (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k) | 1B/2B | vs. RHP Jon Gray
I know I mentioned above that I won’t be looking to stack this game but I definitely won’t be fading. Muncy has been a force in seven Coors Field games this year where he is 10-for-25 (.400 AVG) with a massive .597 wOBA, .720 ISO, and five homers. Half of his hits at Coors have left the park this year, pretty wild! Muncy also has a pair of home runs off of Jon Gray in 13 plate appearances. Legitimate double-dinger upside with him tonight.
Cheslor Cuthbert (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k) | 1B/3B | vs. LHP Thomas Pannone
You’re going to need to find some cheap bats tonight so I’ll throw out a couple value one-offs starting with Cutbert. I’ll be honest, I’m not sure if I’ve played him at all this year but, all things considered, he’s having a solid season. He’s a strong hitter against southpaws with a .318 AVG, .397 wOBA, and .295 ISO with a 144 wRC+. All three of his homers off of lefties have come at home in Kansas City, where they will be tonight. There’s nothing intimidating about this match-up. Against RHBs, Pannone allows a .275 AVG, .358 wOBA and 42.7% Hard Contact along with a 5.67 xFIP split.
Brian Dozier (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k) | 2B | vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel
I swear, I’m not intentionally focusing on first and second basemen but I just love all these match-ups. Brian Dozier is another ultra cheap bat whose DFS prices stay depressed due to his poor splits versus RHPs. However, when he gets to face off with a lefty, he is hitting .325 with a .428 wOBA and .277 ISO which carries him to a 156 wRC+. Keuchel is coming off his best game as a Brave but he may struggle tonight as he takes the mound in Washington. Keuchel has faced 86 right-handed hitters on the road this season and he is allowing those guys to bat .333 with a .428 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9, with just a 12.8% kRate. In 16 plate appearances, Dozier is batting .429 against Keuchel with a home run to boot. He should be a perfectly fine value bat to target tonight and I’ll go as far as to make him my home run call this evening! 💣
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