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- Top MLB DFS Plays 7/29 | Aces Back in Action
Top MLB DFS Plays 7/29 | Aces Back in Action
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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Hot damn! We’ve got some actual quality pitching to choose from tonight. Who else just hated yesterday’s pitching options so much that they just rolled out cheap arms and paid up for a ton of big bats? Looking at the ownership, I’m willing to bet a lot of people unfortunately got burned by guys like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, JD Martinez, and Pete Alonso… among others. Ah, the aches and pains of MLB DFS! And to be fair, that wasn’t really a bad strategy. Among pitchers, really only Merrill Kelly came through in terms of putting up a really strong performance as an expensive option. But it is nice to have some guys like Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom out there tonight that you could insert into your lineups and reasonably expect them to get you 8+ strikeouts and (hopefully) more than just a five innings of work. Whether you bombed or made some coin last night, we have a nine game main slate to look ahead to this evening. Here’s to everyone either bouncing back or keeping the profits rolling in!
Today’s games with moneylines and implied team totals:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
TB @ ATL: This is looking like the only game where weather could be a major factor. This is Atlanta we’re talking about, where heat and humidity can bring about pop-up thunderstorms out of nowhere. This game could play completely without issue or could fall victim to a late start or in-game delay. Depending on the severity of these potential storms, a postponement can’t be completely ruled out. Fortunately this game is one of the earliest ones on the slate, so we’ll have a better idea what things are looking like around 6 pm ET or so.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Jacob deGrom (RHP) | DK: $12k, FD: $11.2k | vs. BOS
You probably have to consider Gerrit Cole (DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.7k) the safer option for cash games tonight due to the easier opponent and being a massive -350 favorite, but deGrom is one of the few “match-up proof” pitchers in the league… and really, Boston just hasn’t been very good so far in 2020. That isn’t to say he is guaranteed to deliver a phenomenal performance tonight. But rather that deGrom is capable of shutting down any team, anywhere, at any time. We’re still dealing with very small sample sizes here, but in 102 at-bats against RHPs this season, Boston is hitting for a lofty .294 AVG which ranks 3rd in the MLB. However, they have very few extra base hits mixed in there (six doubles, two HRs), resulting in a mediocre .330 wOBA (ranks 14th) and 105 wRC+ (ranks 16th). Most people are likely well aware of how good deGrom is, so I don’t think I need to go spouting off a bunch of numbers on him. He is one of the three or four best pitchers in baseball after all. In GPPs, I think he is your ace to roll out tonight since his ownership will likely be drastically lower than Cole’s as people shy away from the Red Sox match-up. The Mets are still heavy -185 favorites.
Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k | @ SF
Paddack is one of the best young aces out there right now and he put up a solid shutout performance in his season debut across six innings last Friday against the D-Backs. It’d be great if we can see his pitch count get extended into the low-to-mid 90's tonight (threw 81 pitches on 7/24) but that’s an early season dynamic that we’ll just have to deal with for right now. Hardly any manager is letting their starting pitchers even sniff a 90 or 100 pitch count early on. The Giants offense is picking up right where they left off in 2019… by being terrible. They’re averaging just 2.60 runs/game and in 105 at-bats versus RHPs they have just a .239 wOBA, .057 ISO, 57 wRC+, and are striking out 26.4% of the time. There just isn’t much power in this lineup and it seems very unlikely that they’ll be able to get to Paddack much tonight. In three starts against SF last season (17.0 IP), Paddack posted a 2.65 ERA, 32.8% kRate, 0.88 WHIP, and allowed a .213 AVG/.246 wOBA. He should be in line for another respectable outing on the mound and the Padres are strong -170 favorites.
Christian Javier (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LAD
This is absolutely a GPP flyer-only recommendation. Your best bets for cheaper pitching options tonight are likely going to be Andrew Heaney (DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.1k) and perhaps Joe Musgrove (DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k). Javier has the very tough task of pitching against the Dodgers as he takes the place of Justin Verlander (forearm) in the pitching rotation. This will be Javier’s first MLB start but if he can manage to get five innings worth of work in, this guy has immense strikeout potential. In 2019, Javier pitched 113.2 innings across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A and posted a 170:59 K:BB ratio alongside a 0.97 WHIP and 1.74 ERA. His 2019 minor league numbers work out to 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings… which is absolutely elite. Obviously, I would much rather take a flyer on him against literally any other team in the league. But, again, if he can go for five innings while only giving up maybe three runs at most, he could have a slew of strikeouts along the way and easily pay off his low-end salaries.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Ponce de Leon (RHP), STL
It’s very, very early in this shortened 2020 season but the Twins are mashing opposing pitchers with authority. As a team, they’re hitting RHPs to the tune of a .325 AVG (1st), .432 wOBA (1st), 175 wRC+ (1st) and already have eight HRs while striking out just 15.9% of the time. Ponce de Leon is a pretty solid pitcher, although he doesn’t have a ton of experience in the Majors with just 82.0 IP in the MLB. He has an unimpressive 4.57 xFIP for his career and the Twins just have too many dangerous bats at their disposal. They make for a high-end stack to pivot away from the likely Yankees chalk. Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz would be the core guys to target.
San Diego Padres vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF
The Padres are playing pretty well early in the season, posting at least five runs in three-out-of-four games. I just have a feeling a true offensive explosion is just around the corner. It could be tonight against Cueto, whose best days are likely behind him. Even if Cueto does hang tough, his pitch count may not exceed far beyond 70 pitches. The Giants bullpen has also had its fair share of struggles early on and has posted a 5.29 xFIP (4th worst) through 26 innings worth of relief pitching. Fernando Tatis Jr. has to be the centerpiece of any Padres stack. Beyond him, Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham, and Manny Machado, despite the slow start, are also core pieces to consider.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA
The Angels make for an intriguing GPP stack considering so many people got toasted by Mike Trout last night (1-for-5, 1 R, 2 K, 5 DKFP). But LAA did rack up 10 runs and there is potential for a similar run total tonight. Justin Dunn is probably nothing more than an extended opener… perhaps he goes for two or three innings. Nothing really scares me about his numbers either, which are largely scraped from the Double-A level. The Mariners bullpen has been one that shows a lot of holes early on. Their 5.83 xFIP thru 22.2 IP is the second worst in the league and they’ve allowed five HRs already (1.99 HR/9) alongside a 1.46 WHIP and just a 17.5% kRate. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon (if he's in the lineup again) are the obvious guys to spend up on. Meanwhile, David Fletcher has been excellent from the lead-off spot and Tommy La Stella is a solid middle-of-the-order guy. I’m still not too high on spending up for Shohei Ohtani yet this season, but that probably means he smacks two homers tonight.
The “Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
Seattle Mariners vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA
One-Off Hitters ☝️
2B/SS Gleyber Torres | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP), BAL
I’m not sure what Torres has against Baltimore but he destroyed their pitching staff last season. In 18 games against them in 2019, Torres hit .394 with a 13 HRs (!) and 20 RBI. That resulted in an astronomical .587 wOBA, .652 ISO, and 279 wRC+. Now, it is important to remember that the Oriole starters and bullpen were historically awful last season, but between Wojcieschowski and their 2020 bullpen, my expectations are not too high for them once again. The Yankees are probably the chalk stack of the day but if I only wanted to get exposure to one bat, it’s probably going to be Torres.
Some DKFP totals against BAL last season
2B/OF Whit Merrifield | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET
At this point, just play W-”hit” Merrifield until the bat goes cold. He’s sporting a .504 wOBA in the early goings of this season and has back-to-back games with a dinger. He has also owned Matthew Boyd in his career against him -- and it's a decent sample size at that. In 42 PA against Boyd, Merrifield is hitting .513 with a .766 wOBA+ISO and has also stolen five bags on him. He’s still very affordable and will be another strong option again this evening.
OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD
Both Brantley and Merrifield were mentioned as one-offs yesterday but I swear I’m not trying to be lazy here! They’re both just too consistent and still very affordable, especially on DraftKings. There’s no reason a guy should be a flat $3k (on DK) when he is batting clean-up on one of the top offenses in baseball (even post-sign stealing era). Dustin May also struggles with LHBs (like Brantley) and since last year he has allowed lefties to hit .385 off of him with a .403 wOBA.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
3B Jeff McNeil | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS
My HR calls up to this point this season have just been a day early and it’s almost laughable at this point. Here’s who I’ve had picked thus far:
Thurs., 7/23: Max Muncy, no homer.... hit 2 HRs on 7/24
Fri., 7/24: Nelson Cruz, no homer... hit 1 HR on 7/25, 2 HRs on 7/26
Mon., 7/27: Javier Baez, no homer... hit 2 HRs on 7/28
Tues., 7/28: Justin Turner, no homer… today??? We’ll see.
So, if Turner bombs one or two out the park tonight, then I’m going to go visit a witch doctor or something to lift this curse (but hell, I'd consider playing him at this point). McNeil will be my guy tonight, as he is sporting a massive .396 ISO in his last 57 PAs against RHPs. Eovaldi also gave up 3.38 HR/9 against lefties last season on 41.3% Hard Contact. Dear Jeff, please save me from this drought!
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