Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 7/27 - 7/28 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Did you know the Baltimore Orioles have multiple home runs in 10 consecutive games which is now the longest streak in MLB history? I read that stat this morning and had to re-read it a few times to make sure I wasn't seeing things. Speaking of streaks, we had some others come to an end last night including the consecutive days with a player hitting three home runs and also Gerrit Cole's consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts. The Red Sox will look for a four game sweep of the Yankees tonight on Sunday Night Baseball with Chris Sale on the hill - doesn't get much better than that. Today should be a good day on the diamond. We've got ten games to talk about on today's slate and as usual, it's an early Sunday main slate so grab some coffee and let's get to work. Here are the Vegas lines:

The Twins were disappointing last night but don't be afraid to go back to the well today. They just had an off night. If your process lead you to using them, don't second guess yourself. I had a ton of them myself last night. As far as weather is concerned, it's hot out there with almost every game (at least the ones outside) forecast to be in the upper 80s or low 90s and we have some winds potentially blowing out at 16 mph in Kansas City. Nothing critical but definitely (as always) worth checking the updates a little closer to lock.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Walker Buehler, LAD | DK: $10.6K, FD: $11.3K | RHP | @Washington

Buehler is on an absolute rampage right now and if you throw out a start against the Rockies in Coors Field where he got tagged for seven earned runs in 5.2 innings the numbers would be even better. If we take out that start in Coors, he's allowed more than two earned runs in an outing just once and has gone seven innings or more in all but one start dating back to May 29th. Let's take a quick look at his numbers before and after June 1st. Before 6/1: 4.03 ERA (4.05 SIERA), 1.09 WHIP, 23.8% strikeouts, 4.9% walks. After 6/1: 2.38 ERA (2.83 SIERA), 0.86 WHIP, 33% strikeouts, 2.3% walks. He's knocked over a run off of his SIERA and raised his strikeout rate by 10% since the start of June. As far as the match up today, Washington got off to a really hot start in the second half but they've cooled off a bit, losing three straight games and going 5-5 in their last 10. On the season, they are middle of the pack against right-handed pitching with a .316 wOBA, .171 ISO, and 22.1% strikeout rate. In tournaments today, given how well he's been pitching recently, I was some shares of Buehler as he's likely to be less popular than Bauer (@KC) and Ray (@MIA) who both have weaker competition.

Robbie Ray, ARI | DK: $10.8K, FD: $10.2K | LHP | @Miami

There are trade rumors swirling around him as the Diamondbacks are most likely to sell at the deadline sitting just one game over .500 and 15.5 GB in the NL West. We talk about Ray often in this article. He's always intriguing with his monster upside but he's always a risk. Walks and home runs are a huge issue but the strikeout potential is massive and can lead to a great ROI. He's had eight or more strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts. In the month of July, he's 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA (3.59 SIERA), 1.11 WHIP, and 33% strikeouts. He's also walked nine and given up a whopping seven home runs in those four starts which clearly highlights that risk we were talking about. With all that said, however, I've managed to bury two key factors for why he's so appealing today. The first, and most obvious, is he's facing the Marlins. Miami is ranked 28th against left-handed pitching this season including a .282 wOBA, .122 ISO, and 75 wRC+. This game is also in Miami which will greatly reduce the risk of Ray giving up home runs (as if the weak Miami offense wasn't enough). The Diamondbacks are comfortable -150 favorites in the game with the lowest total today at just 7.5 runs. Ray is in play on both sites for tournaments but he's a better value on FanDuel as the fourth most expensive pitcher.

Jason Vargas, NYM | DK: $6.7K, FD: $7K | LHP | vs. Pittsburgh

Speaking of teams who suck against left-handed pitching, say hello to the Pittsburgh Pirates. In case you missed it, Matz twirled an absolute gem last night throwing a complete game shut out with seven strikeouts and zero walks. He needed only 99 pitches to get through the whole game. At one point, I checked the scores, and this game was over while the rest of the slate was still in the 4th inning. Based on yesterday's results, here's an updated look at the Pirates against lefties:

Yup, still bad. They have a .281 wOBA, .136 ISO, 23.2% strikeouts and just 4.4% walks. With all of this said, I realize adding Jason Vargas to your roster is about as fun as watching paint dry but in his defense, he hasn't been terrible recently. Since the beginning of June he's 4-2 in nine starts with a 3.61 ERA (4.67 SIERA), 1.07 WHIP, and 22.4% strikeouts. Yes, the BABIP is well below average and that SIERA is over a run higher than the ERA so we are playing with fire a bit. If this were any other match up I would pass on Vargas (maybe not the Marlins). But with this Pirates lineup and track record against lefties, Vargas represents possible value today if he can keep it together for another outing.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Chicago Cubs vs. Zach Davies, MIL (RHP)

Davies is 8-3 with a 3.17 ERA and doesn't appear on the surface to be someone we'd want to attack with bats. But there are several red flags here making these Cubs players jump out. First, Davies has just a 15.6% strikeout rate so he's really relying on forcing soft contact and ground balls (neither of which he's particularly good at) for getting his outs. The more chances our bats have to make contact, the more potential for them to score fantasy points. Davies also has a 5.32 SIERA which is over to full runs higher than his ERA. I don't know how he's doing it but all the advanced stats are telling us he's lucky, not good. And at some point it's going to catch up with him. I like Chicago today, particularly the left-handed bats, where Davies owns a 5.82 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and only 13.3% strikeouts while allowing 41.4% fly balls and a .343 wOBA. Rizzo (.979 OPS, .408 wOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP), Schwarber (.331 wOBA, .262 ISO vs RHP), and Heyward (.366 wOBA, .212 ISO vs RHP) are priorities for me and you can obviously mix in the right-handed bats too.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kevin Gausman, ATL (RHP)

This might be a bit off the radar but I like it for larger field tournaments. Obviously overshadowed because their opponent put up 15 runs last night, the Phillies quietly put up seven runs of their own and were one of the top scoring offenses last night on a slate that had plenty of runs. A lot of people have left this team for dead, as they are clearly not living up to the expectations they had given all the off-season moves that were made. But, while the NL East title is looking grim 7.5 GB of the Braves, Philadelphia is still only one game out of the wild card and still very much alive for the playoffs. The Phillies are also significantly better at home, with a 30-23 record, and we've got some pretty ideal hitting conditions at the batter friendly Citizens Bank Park today where temperatures will be in the high 80s and winds will be blowing out. Gausman has been extremely inconsistent this season owning a 5.71 ERA (4.44 SIERA) and 1.44 WHIP. He's been particularly bad against right-handed hitters where he has a 5.01 xFIP and only 18.8% strikeouts while allowing 41.2% fly balls, 37.4% hard contact, and a .333 wOBA. Hoskins (.369 wOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP) and Kingery (.356 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP) are both standing out. Let's not forget about Harper too. He might not be living up to the contract he signed this season but he's still a damn good player.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dylan Covey, (RHP)

Yea, yea I know, I know - what happened to Ivan Nova being terrible? The Twins were a let down last night no question about it and it would have turned my solid night (thank you Atlanta and LAA) into a much bigger night had they come through. But that's DFS. I would attack Nova on every slate if given the chance just like I'll attack Covey on every slate too. In his last two starts he allowed six hits and five earned in six innings against the awful Miami Marlins and he also got embarrassed by Oakland, allowing four hits and six earned runs without even getting through the first inning back on July 13th. Between those two starts are a couple of relief appearances that saw him allow a run both times. He has a disastrous 6.04 ERA (5.75 SIERA), 1.51 WHIP, only 14.1% strikeouts, and 10.1% walks. When the pitcher is walking nearly as many batters as he's striking out - play the bats against him. Both sides of the plate are in play here but Covey does have some pretty dramatic splits that should force us to prioritize lefties. He owns a 6.85 xFIP, 2.28 WHIP, 14.9% strikeouts AND 14.9% walks (you read that right) against left-handed hitters. They have a .415 wOBA against him this season. Give me all the Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Josh VanMeter | DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.5K | 3B/OF | vs. Peter Lambert, COL

Call me lazy but why would I not talk about him yet again? He came through last night going 2 for 3 with another home run. Both sites raised his price but only slightly ($400 on DraftKings and $200 on FanDuel) so he's still a screaming value right now. He has another great match up today against Peter Lambert. At some point he will slow down, as all the stats are suggesting this. But until he does, there is no harm in locking him in at these prices and continuing to try and catch lightning in a bottle.

Tommy Pham, TBR | DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.8K | OF | vs. Aaron Sanchez, TOR

Aaron Sanchez against right-handed pitching this season: 6.01 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, 14.3% strikeouts, 13.1% walks. He's allowing 40.8% hard contact and giving up a .377 wOBA. Don't get me wrong, he's bad to both sides of the plate (looking at you Austin Meadows) but the righties are standing out more. After a rough stretch of eight straight games without more than eight fantasy points (including several doughnuts) Pham is starting to heat up again with 12, 21, and 12 fantasy points in his last three (DraftKings scoring). He owns a .590 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 starts against right-handed pitching.

Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.2K, FD: $4K | OF | vs. Dakota Hudson, STL

Everybody panic. It's been four games since Alvarez has had over 20 fantasy points. While everyone else (hopefully) jumps off this train, I'll be loading up today looking for a bounce back. Dakota Hudson has some brutal numbers against left-handed hitters including a 5.17 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, only 17.3% strikeouts, and 13.5% walks. Ouch. He's also allowing a massive 45.4% hard contact rate and a .380 wOBA to lefties. Houston makes for a solid stack option today but I'm probably going to stack elsewhere and add in some one-off Alvarez lineups instead.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!