Top MLB DFS Plays 7/28 | Solid Bats & Solid Arms Make for a Balanced Midweek Slate

July 28, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Happy Hump Day, folks! A 10-game MLB main slate lands on the docket for this evening -- 11-games on DraftKings with the inclusion of the second leg of the TOR @ BOS doubleheader which, as a reminder, will only play seven innings. This one feels like a fairly balanced set of games as there are quite a few appealing stack options available to choose from, mixed in with a pretty solid set of starting pitchers. I won’t waste much time in the intro here… let’s go ahead and get into the nitty-gritty of this slate!

Also, this is your daily reminder, up until Friday’s 4 pm ET trade deadline, to keep an eye out for any unexpected moves:

The most notable transaction today (so far) has been the 1-for-1 trade sending Miami’s OF Starling Marte to Oakland in return for LHP Jesus Luzardo.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There is not a whole lot to worry about today, aside from some potential for pop-up storms out in the MIA @ BAL game which will bring some light risk there.

Best hitting conditions: MIA @ BAL, WAS @ PHI, CIN @ CHC, CWS @ KC

Best pitching conditions: NYY @ TB, ARI @ TEX, COL @ LAA

MIA @ BAL (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Scattered/pop-up thunderstorms moving out of Baltimore around the first pitch. However, some smaller pop-ups could be trailing that system. If one runs over the ballpark, there’s potential for a late start/in-game delay. Not super high risk but I’d trust the bats here more than the pitching. Check the outlook closer to lock before making any final decisions here.

WAS @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8:05 O/U): Low chance of a random pop-up shower.

CWS @ KC (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Temperatures in the upper-90s at first pitch (should stay above 90 pretty much all game) with light winds blowing out to left field. Kauffman Stadium is a strong hitter’s park but isn’t necessarily known for producing a ton of home runs. The hot weather + light winds blowing out should add a few extra feet onto hard-hit fly balls.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP) | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | vs. WAS

The Nationals offense takes a major temporary blow following Trea Turner's removal from yesterday’s game due to a positive COVID-19 test. That will make Zack Wheeler’s job a bit easier today. If Wheeler can keep guys like Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Josh Harrison in check, he should not have much issues running through the rest of this lineup. Wheeler has been one of the most high-upside fantasy pitchers this season and he’s particularly stout at home where, in a dozen starts (82.0 IP), he holds a sharp 2.09 ERA, 2.53 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 32.2% kRate, .195 AVG, .230 wOBA, and is averaging about 30% more fantasy points. He has shown some excellent statcast data over the last month as well, highlighted by a 54.1% Ground Ball%, 14.9% Line Drive%, 20.3% Hard Contact%, and an average exit velocity of 82.7 mph. The Phillies are currently the heaviest favorites on this slate with -220 moneyline odds and the Nationals hold a low 3.5 implied run total.

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.2k | @ KC

As noted above in the weather section, this should be more of a favorable hitting environment than it will be a positive pitching environment. Giolito also hasn’t impressed in either of his two starts against KC this season and he has been pretty erratic as of late, in general. But he will make for a lower-owned high-end pivot off of the chalkier studs like Wheeler and Buehler. Kansas City has been a below-average offense against RHPs and their 96 wRC+ over the last two weeks ranks 24th in the league. They’re getting a decent amount of hits (.261 AVG in that span, ranks 9th) but aren’t hitting for much power (.128 ISO, ranks 29th). On the season, Gio has a strong 3.83 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 28.2% kRate, and a slate best 14.9% Swinging Strike Rate. He does allow quite a few fly balls (48.4% FB% over the last month) but if he can keep those fly balls inside Kauffman Stadium where, despite the hot weather and light winds blowing out today, it is still tough to hit home runs, then he could certainly push for 30 DKFP/50 FDFP. That isn’t the most likely outcome, but it’s plausible and he’ll likely only check in at around 15% ownership by my estimations.

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL

Oh boy, another Andrew Heaney slate. There’s always risk with Heaney, even in promising match-ups, because he rarely ever really shuts down opposing offenses. Over his last five starts, he has a terrible 7.46 ERA and 1.54 WHIP -- 5.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP on the year. However, when you roster Heaney, you’re hoping for one thing: strikeouts. Heaney has a great 27.9% kRate and 12.9% Swinging Strike Rate this season, which are strikeout numbers you don’t often see for pitchers at these price points, and he’s capable of throwing nine or ten Ks at any time. When they’re away from Coors Field, Colorado will occasionally come out of nowhere and produce some great offense unexpectedly, as they did last night in a 12-3 rout of the Angels. But, more often than not, they’re going to struggle to score even two or three runs when they’re on the road against competent pitching. Against LHPs on the road this season, they’re hitting a mere .217 with a .285 wOBA, .148 ISO, 75 wRC+, and a 23.4% kRate. If Heaney survives around six innings, as long as he keeps the Rockies in check, he should finish this game with seven or eight strikeouts and likely be in a position to earn a win (LAA -205 ML favorites).

DK Only: Tanner Houck (RHP) | DK: $7,200 | vs. TOR

Houck is only in the main slate player pool over on DK and does get a tough match-up with the Blue Jays. But he is being stretched out as a routine starter for Boston and hit a pitch count of 87 throws across 4.2 IP in his last game prior to rain producing a lengthy weather delay and ending his day (it was likely going to be his last inning anyhow). Remember that this game is only going to go seven innings. If Houck can hit around 90-95 pitches and has two or three efficient low pitch count innings, there’s a chance he could pitch this entire game and would earn the “complete game” bonus on DK (+ a CGSO bonus if he somehow manages to blank the Blue Jays). Is it likely? No. But possible? Yes. In limited action, Houck has produced a great 31.1% kRate and is walking just 5.4% of batters. He’s a worthy contrarian GPP play on DK.

FD Only: Madison Bumgarner (LHP) | FD: $6,400 | @ TEX

Bumgarner is pretty much unplayable at his $9,500 salary on DK, but there is some meat on the bone at a mere $6,400 on FanDuel as he faces the Texas Rangers, who have been allergic to offense ever since the return from the All-Star Break. Obviously, this is another GPP only contrarian play for people who play a lot of lineups. But it could feasibly work out.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox are a pair of teams in promising spots today. Both will be on my radar for stack purposes.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

The Reds have scored no less than five runs in five straight games while being led by the absolutely scorching hot bat of Joey Votto, who has rocketed five homers in his last four games. They’ll get to go up against Zach Davies today who has a slate-worst 5.39 xFIP on the year and an awful 1.67 WHIP over his previous five starts. The Cubs bullpen has also been a major liability as of late, accounting for a 4.82 xFIP over the last month (5th highest) and a league-worst 2.30 HR/9 Rate in that span, as well. The home runs have been flying out in Wrigley lately and that could continue into today’s game.

Philadelphia Phillies (RHBs) vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin has been rocked by right-handed batters all throughout this season. Against that side of the plate, he’s posting a 6.19 ERA, .370 wOBA, .214 ISO, 1.54 WHIP, 1.91 HR/9 Rate, and only a 16% kRate. He is actually showing some strong statcast numbers over the last month, despite the end results not really being pretty. And his best start of the season also came against these Phillies (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 9 K), but that was way back on May 13th and he just hasn’t been a reliable starter since then. The Phillies have been a top 10 offense against LHPs, both in the long term and short term, and guys like Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, and Jean Segura have been some very reliable RHBs at the top of this order recently. The Nationals bullpen has also been fairly inefficient lately, allowing 1.88 HR/9 with a 1.53 WHIP and 4.55 xFIP across the last month.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

There is nothing sneaky about stacking against Jordan Lyles, but I still don’t believe the D-Backs will go heavily owned today at all. They’ve quietly been damn solid on offense lately, and their 117 wRC+ and .351 wOBA across the last couple of weeks both rank 5th in the league. Lyles has actually managed to post some not-so-terrible fantasy numbers lately, but his statcast data is off-the-charts bad and he’s allowed seven home runs in his last two outings. Unfortunately, there is not very much home run power in this Arizona lineup and the hitting environment is not great, but perhaps Lyles can counteract that by throwing them a few batting practice pitches.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

3B/OF Kris Bryant | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jordan Holloway (RHP), MIA

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

SS Gleyber Torres | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

3B Brian Anderson | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Gregory Polanco | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

Tylor Megill has, by all means, been very solid for the Mets during his rookie campaign. In his 30.0 IP, Megill has boasted a strong 2.10 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and a 27% kRate. However, one thing he has not excelled at is keeping left-handed hitters in check. It is a small sample size, but across 49 LHBs faced this season, Megill has a 5.73 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, .349 wOBA, .227 ISO, and a 2.45 HR/9 Rate. Freddie Freeman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and is showing why he earned NL MVP honors last season. In his last 20 games vs. RHPs (63 PA), Freddie is batting .413 with a .525 wOBA, .353 ISO, 234 wRC+, and has blasted five home runs. His average exit velo of 94.8 mph vs. RHPs over the last two weeks places him in the 90th percentile of hitters as well. The Braves may carry a slate-low 3.4 implied run total today, but Freddie Freeman could certainly be one of the guys who produces out there against Megill and I’m really liking his home run chances.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.