Top MLB DFS Plays 7/27 | Tackling Tuesday's Gigantic Slate

July 27, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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It’s time to lock in for a colossal 15-game Tuesday slate! I have to admit, I really am not a fan of the pitching today, like… at all, but if we can figure out some serviceable options on the mound, I believe there are a swarm of viable stack options that could work out. Vegas seems to be expecting plenty of scoring tonight as well with a dozen teams currently carrying an implied run total of 4.8 runs or higher. Of course, implied team totals are essentially a median projected outcome. Some teams will underperform and some will outperform those predicted run totals. All in all, it should be a pretty wild slate and there is plenty to get to so let’s dive in!

Reminder: The MLB trade deadline arrives this Friday at 4 pm ET. Keep track of the latest trades here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/trade/

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There isn’t a whole lot to concern ourselves with weather-wise today, aside from one or two spots. There are plenty of warm, humid conditions today as well.

Preferred hitting environments: MIA @ BAL, WAS @ PHI, ATL @ NYM, STL @ CLE, TOR @ BOS, CIN @ CHC, CWS @ KC, DET @ MIN

Preferred pitching environments: NYY @ TB, ARI @ TEX, COL @ LAA, LAD @ SF, HOU @ SEA, OAK @ SD

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 11 O/U): This game should start off dry but a line of thunderstorms threatens to roll through Boston in the middle innings. The risk of a mid-inning delay is fairly high and there is a chance that it could be a while before they would resume play, if they even do. Since there are 14 other games on the slate, the risk is high enough here to where I will avoid mentioning players from this game for the sake of this newsletter. Ultimately, bats may end up safe but pitchers could be deemed riskier.

DET @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): The risk isn’t very high in this game, but there is potential for some scattered storms to come through, particularly in the mid/late innings. Just check the forecast closer to lock to see how things are looking.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Julio Urias (LHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. SF

I don’t love the San Fran match-up for Urias, especially considering he just pitched against them six days ago, but everything about him screams “solid” this season, and as of late. Urias is 3-0 in his last five starts while maintaining a flat 1.00 WHIP, 2.61 ERA, and a 25.6% kRate. His statcast data over the last month has been excellent as he’s allowing an average exit velocity of 83.6 mph (90th percentile), a very low 13.6% Line Drive%, and a minuscule 17.6% Hard Contact%. The Giants can be dangerous against lefties (102 wRC+ this season, ranks 10th) but over the last two weeks, they’ve posted a lowly 70 wRC+ against southpaws (ranks 25th). Urias has faced the Giants three times this year, posting two nice outings with one poor performance. He’s actually been a bit better on the road this season and when he went up against San Francisco in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park back on May 23rd, he needed just 89 pitches to strike out the Giants ten times across six innings while allowing two runs on three hits and earning a win -- good for 32 DKFP/52 FDFP. That is roughly his ceiling, but I believe he has a decent chance to put up a similar performance today if those Giants bats continue to have issues with southpaw pitching.

Adam Wainwright (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | @ CLE

I’m not seeing much love for Waino today, so that may make him a nice lower-owned leverage play. You’re not getting a massive amount of strikeout upside with him (22.7% kRate) but he does often run deep into games and can grind out seven or eight innings of work. The match-up with Cleveland is also sorta sneaky good. In the last two weeks against RHPs (279 plate appearances), the future Guardians have a mere 69 wRC+ (nice), which ranks 28th in that span ahead of only the Rangers and Rockies. Their 28.7% kRate in that two-week stretch also checks in as the second-highest strikeout rate as well, so perhaps Wainwright could have one of his 8+ K games in this spot. He does have some concerning statcast data and he hasn’t been nearly as efficient on the road, but overall I like his potential upside at likely <10% ownership. In 48 PA, the current Cleveland roster is hitting just .136 against Wainwright with a .191 wOBA and 27.1% kRate.

Spenser Watkins (RHP) | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA

Watkins’ home ballpark of Camden Yards is not an ideal environment for pitchers, especially when it’s going to be 90 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing out. However, Miami represents a plus match-up for RHPs. Against righties this season, the Marlins are hitting .235 with a .296 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and 25.4% kRate. Watkins is an inexperienced rookie who only has three starts and 16.1 IP in the MLB under his belt. He did lock down the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start, going six full innings on 92 pitches and allowed one run on four hits, and struck out seven. He has a window of opportunity to produce a similar performance today against a Marlins offense that definitely isn’t as potent as the Tampa Bay Rays.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

On a 15-game slate, I don’t think I’ll single out any one or two offenses as ‘top stacks.’ There are just too many juicy spots to go to today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

The Cubs are one of the most notable teams going into Friday’s trade deadline as ‘sellers’ so be aware that some of their main hitters could be dealt at any time. Assuming no one gets traded just yet, they’re in a great spot at home today where there will be hot, humid temperatures in the mid-80s and 10 mph winds blowing out to center at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. They draw a match-up with Vladimir Gutierrez, who has been terrible lately. Through his last five starts, Gutierrez has posted an awful 6.15 ERA, 5.83 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 12% kRate, .298 AVG, .408 wOBA, and has given up eight home runs which equates to a 2.70 HR/9 Rate. Gutierrez’s low kRate is particularly notable because striking out is what this Cubs offense truly struggles with, so they could have a chance at making plenty of contact today. A not-so-scary Reds bullpen will be backing up Gutierrez in the mid-to-later innings.

Washington Nationals (RHBs) vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

Let’s check the Matt Moore flow chart real quick: is Matt Moore starting today? --> If “yes” then stack against him, especially the righty bats. Against RHBs this season, Moore has a 7.45 ERA, 5.69 xFIP, .405 wOBA, 1.72 WHIP, and a huge 2.48 HR/9 Rate. The Nationals are a righty-heavy offense that has demolished left-handed pitching. On the season, they rank 5th vs. LHPs with a 112 wRC+ -- over the last two weeks, they lead the league with a massive 154 wRC+ and they’re rarely striking out (18.8% kRate). Across the last month, the Phillies bullpen has a high 1.57 WHIP and 1.62 HR/9 Rate, so there is still some nice potential for these Nats bats after Moore is retired.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

I was very close to highlighting Gomber in the pitching section as a value option today, but the Angels are just too scary against lefties at home. Versus LHPs at home this season, they have a remarkable 144 wRC+ (ranks 1st) with a .378 wOBA, .242 ISO, and .295 batting average. Gomber has honestly been great this season, certainly far better than expected, but he has a seriously problematic match-up to deal with tonight and the Rockies bullpen is, at best, a mediocre relief unit. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, I believe every other Angels hitter will be at most about 5% owned.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

C Willson Contreras | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

OF George Springer | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

C Mitch Garver | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

2B/3B/OF Josh Harrison | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Adam Frazier | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), PIT

OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Harrison Bader | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

1B John Nogowski | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

3B/SS Jack Mayfield | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Willson Contreras | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Jorge Soler started this week’s home run calls off the right way with a double dinger night yesterday, so let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling! I highlighted the Cubbies above in the stack section because this is such a solid spot for them to produce a big game. As mentioned, the hitting conditions at Wrigley will be great (hot, humid, 10 mph winds blowing out to center) and Vladimir Gutierrez has been pitching very poorly lately and has surrendered eight home runs in his last five starts. Contreras has homered in two of his last three games and has produced an average exit velocity of 98.1 mph vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (95th percentile). In that same span, he has created 64.3% Hard Contact and his batted baseballs have had an average distance of 215 feet. The statcast data is great, Gutierrez is struggling, and the weather sets up perfectly for some dingers. Gotta love Contreras in this spot tonight.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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