Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 7/27 - 7/28 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

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There is no shortage of headlines entering a pivotal weekend in Major League Baseball:

• Can the Red Sox keep up this unbelievable offensive surge, sweep the Yankees, and put themselves back in the playoff race?

• Will the Giants still sell at the deadline despite being 18-4 since June 30th?

• Who is going to hit three home runs today?

• Can Gerrit Cole keep his double-digit strikeout streak alive?

For the first time in MLB history there have been four consecutive days where a player has hit three home runs (Cano, DeJong, Cruz, and Betts). Playoff races are in full force, the trade deadline is right around the corner, and oh yea, that whole NFL thing starts soon. It’s a good time to be a sports fan. Before we dive into today’s slate, I wanted to reiterate a point that Chris and Joe made on yesterday’s podcast regarding the next two months of MLB DFS. A lot of you are probably thinking about stopping and putting all your attention into NFL preparation at this point. Well, so is everyone else. So, doesn’t that make this the perfect time to put your foot on the gas in MLB? If our opponents are spending less time on baseball and more time on football, then the quality of their rosters should go down, making this one of the best times of the season to gain an edge in MLB DFS. Just food for thought. I’m certainly excited about NFL myself but there’s still a lot of baseball to be played. Let’s take a look at today’s Vegas lines:

The 9.5 O/U in Oakland really gets my attention. That is a very bad hitters park which means Vegas has absolutely no faith in either pitcher (nor should they). The Twins are a big favorite in a game with an 11 O/U so we'll talk more about them later in the article. From a weather standpoint, it's pretty quiet. Most games are in the 80s except where it's cooler on the west coast (or indoors). No threats of rain and a few parks have some winds blowing out but not hard enough to make much of an impact. Remember, this article comes out several hours before lock so always leave yourself some time to check line movement and updated weather before making final decisions.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole, HOU | DK: $12K, FD: $12K | RHP | vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Until he starts to slow down, he's going to be in strong consideration every time he takes the hill. He's had three double-digit strikeout games in a row with 13, 11, and 11 K's. He's had four-double digit strikeout games in his last five starts. Care to guess how many strikeouts he had in the one start he didn't break double-digits? Nine. That's 54 strikeouts in his last 34 innings. During this span he's 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA (2.36 SIERA), 0.85 WHIP, and an otherworldly 42.2% strikeout rate. Opponents are hitting just .182 against him. There are two risks here. First, the Cardinals are on fire going 9-1 in their last 10 games and officially taking over first place in the NL Central last night. Since the beginning of July they have a .327 wOBA and .217 ISO compared to a .310 wOBA and .166 ISO in all of 2019. The second risk is Cole's price. He's expensive on both sites and you're asking for a monster ceiling game here to return value. During this incredible five start span his DK performances have looked like this: 34.2, 34.8, 27.3, 35, and 38. You're essentially banking on another high 30s return on DK in tournaments to make this really pay off. Obviously, he can do it, but it's not easy. With how well he's throwing, I certainly won't be fading despite his cost but I'm just simply pointing out he needs another monster day to make it worth it. In cash games, his floor is rock solid and he's the clear top choice. Houston is a comfortable -180 today despite how hot the Cardinals are and despite being on the road today.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | DK: $9.2K, FD: $8K | RHP | vs. Colorado

I have a feeling this will be an unpopular opinion today so this is where I'm going to make my stand. Consider this: The last time DeSclafani faced an opponent with a losing record was all the way back on May 29th against the Pirates. Since then, he's had eight straight starts against quality teams including the Cardinals (twice), Indians (twice), Cubs (twice), Astros, and Brewers. Not only are all those teams above .500, but they are all serious playoff contenders and division leaders in some cases. Despite the incredible competition, he's really held his own, going 3-2 in those eight starts with a 3.07 ERA (3.68 SIERA), 1.20 WHIP, 27.5% strikeouts and just 5% walks. His most recent outing against the aforementioned red-hot Cardinals was his best start of the season allowing just one earned run on four hits with 11 punch outs and zero walks in six innings of work. Today, he'll get his best match up in nearly two months against a broken Rockies squad that is now 49-55, 18 games back, and has won just three of their last 10 games. Even worse (for Colorado) is they are on the road today where they own a 23-31 record this season and have a sad .280 wOBA, .159 ISO, and 69 wRC+. They are striking out 27.8% of the time away from Coors Field which is tied with Texas for the highest road strikeout rate in baseball. It's not the best pitcher's park but given his recent track record against superior opponents I like DeSclafani in this spot. Run support should not be a problem either as Colorado is planning to send Chi Chi Gonzalez, yes that Chi Chi Gonzalez, to the mound tonight.

Steven Matz, NYM | DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.4K | LHP | vs. Pittsburgh

Really? This guy? Unfortunately, yes. He's a roller coaster. Very hard to predict. He'll flash some serious upside and follow it up with a game where he gets shelled. His ceiling is about six or seven innings with minimal run damage and 10 strikeouts. His floor is that game against Philadelphia on June 24th where he gave up ten hits and seven earned runs with just one strikeout in only 4.1 innings of work. This is less about Matz himself and more about the match up he's in today. Here's a live look at Pittsburgh against left-handed pitching this season:

The Pirates own a scary bad .282 wOBA and .136 ISO against southpaws. Those are the worst marks in all of baseball. On top of that, they have won just two of their last 10 games. Matz is cheap enough on both sites where it minimizes the risk of him killing your lineup if he has an off night but the ROI could be tremendous in this spot if he pitches closer to his ceiling. I prefer him more on DraftKings as a SP2 than as a standalone pitcher on FanDuel but you could roll him out alone in tournaments if you're multi-entering.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Chicago Cubs vs. Chase Anderson, MIL (RHP)

If you only look at game logs you'll see that Anderson hasn't given up more than two earned runs in an outing in now six straight starts. If you go a level deeper, however, you'll also see he has a 2.59 ERA but a 4.70 SIERA and an incredibly low .250 BABIP during that span. With a SIERA over two full runs higher than the ERA and an unsustainable BABIP suggesting luck over skill, I want to jump on this Cubs lineup today. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher, so while both sides of this lineup are definitely in play, I actually want to prioritize the right-handed bats where he has a 4.74 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and 46.9% hard contact allowed. Bryant (.921 OPS, .389 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP), Contreras (.912 OPS, .379 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP), and Baez (.332 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP) are standing out. Robel Garcia, in a limited sample, has also done damage against right-handed pitching posting a 1.130 OPS, .444 wOBA, and .433 ISO. The Cubs opened at +120 but that has dropped to +113. Keep an eye on the line movement as we get closer to lock.

Atlanta Braves vs. Zach Eflin, PHI (RHP)

In his last three starts Eflin has allowed a total of 16 earned runs (just 13 innings of work) and has put up only 11 strikeouts. He has an 11.08 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and is allowing 2.08 HR/9 while striking out just 16.9% of batters during that span. Granted, some positive regression is coming, as he can't be this bad forever. But even still, a 4.82 SIERA is a pitcher I want to attack with bats. One of these really bad games was against this same Braves team. Eflin lasted just three innings allowing seven hits and seven runs (six earned) including two home runs while striking out only three. I was willing to give him a pass with two tough games against the Braves and Dodgers but then he got an opportunity to redeem himself against the Pirates and he only lasted four innings allowing five hits and three earned runs. Atlanta, unsurprisingly, has been very solid against right-handed pitching this season with a .333 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 41.8% hard contact rate. Eflin is notoriously bad against lefties and this season is no different with a 5.29 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 44.1% fly balls, and 41.1% hard contact allowed. This puts Freddie Freeman at the top of my list with his 1.001 OPS, .412 wOBA, and .273 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Minnesota Twins vs. Ivan Nova, (RHP)

Ivan Nova is awful. Don't put any weight behind his last start since it was against the Marlins. Against actual Major League competition, he has a 5.49 ERA (5.04 SIERA), 1.49 WHIP, and just 14.9% strikeouts. The low strikeout rate gets my attention every time. How can you survive against top offenses when you're striking out less than 15% of the batters you face? The Twins, after that heartbreaking series against the Yankees where they put up 27 runs but still lost two out of three, desperately need to put some games back in the win column and try to create a little distance from Cleveland who is now only two games back. Minnesota has had at least six runs in six straight games so we know the bats are hot. Against right-handed pitching this season they have a strong .346 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 115 wRC+. The individual numbers in this lineup are ridiculous against right-handed pitching: Rosario (.350 wOBA, .258 ISO), Cruz (.389 wOBA, .286 ISO), Sano (.344 wOBA, .302 ISO), Kepler (.371 wOBA, .292 ISO), Garver (.371 wOBA, .310 ISO), Polanco (.401 wOBA, .253 ISO), are you starting to see the picture here? Play the Twins.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Josh VanMeter | DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.3K | 3B/OF | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez, COL

Since the All-Star break, VanMeter has found himself with some regular playing time and he's taking full advantage of it. He has a ridiculous .609 wOBA, .523 ISO, and 62.5% hard contact rate. Can he keep up this level of production? No, he has a .462 BABIP and he'll eventually come back down to earth again at some point. But he's essentially free on both sites today and has a plus match up against journeyman Chi Chi Gonzalez. There's virtually no risk to rolling out VanMeter and hope he can keep the hot streak going for another day.

Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.9K | OF | vs. Aaron Brooks, BAL

These Angels bats are standing out against Aaron Brooks and his 5.28 SIERA and 18% strikeout rate. Mike Trout is in play every night (although he's scorching hot right now - even more so than usual) so let's put our attention on Ohtani instead. He's a top 5% hitter against right-handed pitching with a 2.47 FP/PA. He owns a .589 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts against right-handed pitching and a 92.5 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks. As an added bonus, the Baltimore bullpen is dead last against left-handed bats allowing 3.50 FP/PA.

Freddie Freeman, ATL | DK: $5.2K, FD: $4.1K | 1B | vs. Ivan Nova, CWS

In case you didn't get the hint yet, I'm going to reiterate this one more time. Play Freddie Freeman today. Eflin is terrible against left-handed hitters including a 5.29 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and under 20% strikeouts. He's allowed 44.1% fly balls, 41.1% hard contact, and a .357 wOBA to lefties this season. Freeman has a .652 wOBA + ISO in his last 150 starts against right-handed pitching. On top of all that, his price on FanDuel is a joke at only $4.1K. Get this guy in your lineups.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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