Top MLB DFS Plays 7/26 | Who Will Mash on this Monday Slate?

July 26, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Welcome back for another week of some MLB DFS action! It’s sure to be a frenzied week across the league with some shuffling going around ahead of Friday’s MLB trade deadline. I’m not sure if this particular trade week will be overly active, but at least a few notable players will definitely be exchanged between teams eyeing a World Series title who are determined to be buyers and teams whose postseason aspirations have faded, thereby making them sellers. I’d recommend bookmarking the following link if you’d like to keep track of the most up-to-date trade transactions:

A modest seven-game main slate will head our way this evening. With a limited number of pitchers and offenses to go after, the goal today will be to ‘aim small, miss small.’ Fortunately, we shouldn’t have any postponement threats on this slate, so all seven games should play all nine innings. And quickly, I’d like to give a shoutout to the infamous LineStar member, joojoomae, who took down over $60,000 in PGA DFS winnings this past week! Congrats again to you, man! Let’s get after it today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Zero postponement worries today. Aside from the West Coast games, every outdoor ballpark will have some warm 80-90 degree temperatures at first pitch.

Best hitting conditions: TOR @ BOS, WAS @ PHI, CIN @ CHC, and DET @ MIN

Best pitching conditions: COL @ LAA, HOU @ SEA

DET @ MIN (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Light, scattered showers in the general area. One could move over the stadium and cause a delay, but it’s not super likely.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Preface: Pitching prices are a bit all over the place between DraftKings and Fanduel today, with DK pricing being considerably softer overall. The guys in the best positions to succeed today while offering DFS upside, in my opinion, are Luis Garcia (DK: $10.4k, FD: $10k), Shohei Ohtani (DK: $9.2k, FD: $11k), and Wade Miley (DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k). I believe a popular approach on DK will be to jam two of those three pitchers into the same lineups, especially in cash (no issues with that). On FanDuel, I imagine many will opt to save the $1k by dropping down from Ohtani to Luis Garcia, which would give Ohtani some leverage as a GPP spend-up option.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10k | vs. COL

Ohtani’s strikeouts are down recently (25.7% kRate L5Gms) but, realistically, as long as he gets around 90+ pitches, he’s the only guy taking the mound today who offers up 10+ K upside. On the year, Ohtani has an excellent 31.0% kRate with an equally impressive 14.0% Swinging Strike Rate. The most glaring weakness for him this season, when he’s on the mound, has been plate control. He has put up an awful 11.8% Walk Rate on the year… however, aside from that implosion game against the Yankees on June 30th where he gave up seven earned runs (2 H, 4 BB) on 41 pitches and didn’t make it out of the first inning, Ohtani has not walked more than two batters in his previous seven starts. He’s also more reliable when pitching at home, where he has posted an excellent 1.87 ERA this season. When the Rockies have gone on the road this year, they’ve ranked dead last in the MLB versus RHPs with a 58 wRC+, .203 AVG, .257 wOBA and have struck out 26.2% of the time. Sure, they can occasionally come through with a big game on the road (e.g. last Friday at the Dodgers), but those games are few and far in between. They’ll carry a 3.4 implied run total this evening -- the lowest team total on the slate.

German Marquez (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ LAA

Marquez should set up as a strong leverage play in GPPs today. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last couple of months, despite having to often take the mound at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Going back to May 21st (11 starts w/ seven starts @ Coors Field, 73.0 IP), Marquez has acquired an outstanding 2.22 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 25.8% kRate, 0.84 WHIP, 0.50 HR/9 Rate, .173 opp AVG, and .221 opp wOBA. Truly dominant numbers. Even without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels are a highly capable offense and don’t typically offer up a ton of strikeouts. However, they’ve had some issues at the plate against righties lately and have posted only an 80 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 27th). Marquez can usually be relied upon to provide six-to-eight innings of work along with around seven or eight strikeouts and he’s rarely letting more than a run or two across the plate. This game is setting up as a true pitcher’s duel and will feature the lowest total of the slate (7.5 O/U) with the Angels possessing a modest 4.1 implied run total.

Matt Manning (RHP) | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIN

Manning made an appearance in the MLB newsletter for his previous start and ended up paying off nicely against the lowly Rangers offense. I’m not quite as intrigued by him this go-round, but on a short slate, he makes sense as a leverage punt play for GPPs. The Twins just traded away arguably their best hitter away last Thursday, shipping Nelson Cruz off to Tampa Bay. Without Cruz in the lineup since Thursday, they mustered just ten runs in a four-game series against the Angels while batting .200 and striking out 26.5% of the time in 136 plate appearances. Small sample size, sure, but they’re obviously going to be less dangerous moving forward without the hitting power of Cruz in the heart of the order (and Jorge Polanco is currently day-to-day -- may not play tonight). I’m hoping that Manning will have some confidence heading into this match-up after coming off of the best start of his rookie campaign. I still believe his miserable 10.5% kRate is only going to continue to rise since he mostly accounted for around a 30% kRate at multiple levels in his time in the minor leagues. Manning won’t be a safe option by any means, but he has a decent chance to throw five or six innings with a handful of strikeouts along the way. If he can hold the Twins to just a few hits and two or three runs, he’ll have some fantasy point per dollar value at this $5,800 price tag. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

I’ve gotta give the Toronto Blue Jays their obligatory mention going up against Nick Pivetta. The opposite side of that match-up, the Boston Red Sox, should get some love, too, as they face off with rookie Thomas Hatch who is making his MLB debut on the road in Fenway Park.

Chicago White Sox vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

When the White Sox get a shot at a lefty, ya have to throw ‘em some stack consideration. While they haven’t been as efficient against southpaws lately, they do still check in with a 115 wRC+ vs. LHPs on the season, which ranks 3rd in the league. Mike Minor has faded in a big way over the last month and across his previous five starts, he has acquired an 8.65 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and has struck out just 12.7% of hitters in that span. If Chicago pushes Minor off the mound early, after about four or five innings, they’ll get plenty of at-bats against a bottom 5-10 Royals bullpen.

Note: The White Sox are getting a massive piece to their lineup back today for the first time this season with OF Eloy Jimenez (pectoral) being activated off of the 60-day IL today.

Houston Astros vs. Darren McCaughan (RHP), SEA

The Astros will face off with Darren McCaughan, a rookie making his second big league start. In his debut last Wednesday, McCaughan held the Colorado Rockies to one run across five efficient innings (61 pitches). However, while he didn’t allow a hit, he walked three batters and registered zero strikeouts. In 59.0 IP across ten starts in triple-A this year, McCaughan posted a pretty rough 5.36 xFIP and gave up 1.68 HR/9. He has a fastball that tops out in the high-80s/low-90s and profiles as more of a contact pitcher who tries to force ground balls and limit hard hits. I’m not sure how well that’s going to work out for him against an Astros team that has a fairly low ground ball rate, the lowest kRate versus righties at 19.9%, and a league-leading 117 wRC+ vs. RHPs. T-Mobile Park is not a great hitting environment by any means, but this could be a juicy match-up for the high upside Houston offense.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

The Royals are quietly winners of five straight games and have averaged 6.2 runs/gm in that span. Dallas Keuchel is another veteran pitcher who has not fared all that well over his last month. In his previous five starts, he has racked up a 5.70 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 15.9% kRate, and is issuing 4.2 BB/9. He’s allowed a high 6.8% Barrel% this year and while Keuchel mostly produces ground balls (55.3% GB%), whenever someone does get under one on him, it’s often going over the fence (16.7% HR/FB Rate). The White Sox bullpen is a little worrisome, but they have been underperforming as of late -- their 4.51 xFIP over the last month ranks as the 12th highest in the MLB and they’ve allowed 1.85 HR/9 over the last month as well, 3rd highest.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Juan Soto | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), PHI

1B/3B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Darren McCaughan (RHP), SEA

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS

2B/OF Kike’ Hernandez | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Thomas Hatch (RHP), TOR

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Darren McCaughan (RHP), SEA

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B/OF/SS Aledmys Diaz | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Darren McCaughan (RHP), SEA

(It's another weak slate for infielder value)

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

Soler enters this slate with the longest average distance on batted balls over the last two weeks (290.6 feet) and checks in at 2nd on the slate with a 66.7% Hard Contact% in that span as well. If a player is hitting the ball that hard and that far, the home runs are obviously going to come. He has gone yard four times in Kansas City’s last five games, including a double dinger outing in yesterday’s game against Detroit. Dallas Keuchel is giving up his fair share of barreled baseballs this season and the White Sox bullpen is surrendering plenty of home runs lately as well (1.85 HR/9 over the last month). Soler will bat clean-up once again and has some strong HR + multi-RBI potential this evening.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

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