Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/26 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 6:40  Soroka on FD

• 7:52  Contrarian Play of the Day

• 13:21  Slugfest in Boston

• 15:22  Wheeler vs. Pirates

• 18:35  Bats in Milwaukee

• 23:23  Tournament Arm of the Night

• 26:11  Anthony Santander @ Angels

• 30:10  Betting Lines & HR Calls

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There’s seemingly something unique happening all the time in baseball, huh? In last night’s wild 16 inning game between the Angels and Orioles we saw the first position player ever to record a save in MLB history. Shout out to you Steve Wilkerson! Now that the trade deadline is just five days out, this is our final huge Friday slate before teams make major moves and look to improve their weaponry in the hunt for October. Time for organizations to put up or shut up! Incredibly, we have another day where there are no rain concerns for any MLB games across the country. So now we can just dive straight into these match-ups. Let’s kick the weekend off right! Best of luck to you all.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Zack Greinke (DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.2k) | RHP | ARI @ MIA

As great as Lance Lynn has been, I think at the top of pitcher pricing it comes down to Greinke versus Ryu. Ryu may be the superior arm but there’s not an incredibly huge talent drop off down to Greinke and the Arizona righty will get the easier match-up by far. Miami ranks last in the MLB with a pathetic .277 wOBA versus RHPs in the last month and they pair that with a huge 27.5% kRate. Greinke will get a nice park upgrade and he has been just as good on the road this season, perhaps slightly better. In 11 road starts, he’s boasting a 2.91 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and a 23.6% kRate while holding opposing hitters to a .212 AVG/.260 wOBA. Hard not to feel confident in him tonight as the D-backs are among the heaviest favorites of the evening (-180) while Miami holds a meager 3.3 implied run total.

Ryan Yarbrough (DK: $8k, FD: $7.1k) | RHP | TB @ TOR

It’s always a gamble taking one of these long relievers but Yarbrough has gotten at least six innings of work in back-to-back appearances while surrendering just one run and recording 11 strikeouts. With Blake Snell on the shelf for potentially a month or more, someone in this Rays rotation will need to be relied upon more to fill his shoes. Yarbrough is a leading candidate to do just that, so expect his outings to become consistently lengthier. Yarbrough carries insanely strong road splits with a 2.11 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 0.63 WHIP, 0.47 HR/9 and is holding batters to a measly .162 AVG/.174 wOBA. His 21.7% kRate on the road isn’t incredible but he’s also posting an absurdly low 1.5% Walk Rate. He should be able to work through this below average Blue Jays offense with relative ease.

Daniel Mengden (DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k) | RHP | OAK vs. TEX

This is more of a match-up play than a talent play. The Rangers have been perhaps the worst offense in baseball against righties over the last month. They’re batting just .222 (last) as a team with a 71 wRC+ (last) and have the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that time frame with a 31.7% kRate. Now, Mengden isn’t that great of a pitcher but he’s not priced as one. He’s shown he can excel against subpar offenses (see his games versus Detroit, St. Louis, and a strong performance against Seattle). Mengden is also marginally better at home and averages close to a strikeout per inning. This isn’t a safe play by any means but the Rangers have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games (all on the road) and could continue to struggle tonight away from the offensive safe harbor of Globe Life Park.

Jose Urquidy (DK: $5k, FD: $7.5k) | RHP | HOU @ STL

Throwing out an extra pitcher here because there’s no way I could avoid mentioning Urquidy after the gem he pitched versus Texas in his last outing. Also, as is usually the case with these cheap arms, this is more of a DraftKings SP2 punt play considering they have him priced as the cheapest pitcher on the slate when he is, objectively, not the worst pitcher taking the mound today. Still, you could probably use him on FanDuel and feel alright about it. While I definitely wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance of his previous game, Urquidy can pay off his salary even if he gives up several hits/runs. The name of the game with him is “strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts.” It’s a small sample size, but in 13 innings pitched he has recorded 17 punch outs resulting in a 30.4% kRate. This doesn’t seem to be a fluke either. In eight Triple-A starts this year (48.2 IP) he boasted an excellent 35.2% kRate. The St. Louis bats seem to be rapidly heating up but they still offer a fairly generous 23.9% kRate against RHPs in the last 30 days with a well below average 88 wRC+. It’s hard to predict a floor for this guy tonight but we already know his ceiling is 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP. Also, by default, there is an air of confidence you can feel about most any pitcher that the Astros bring up. They have such a great farm system for pitchers. We’ll see if Urquidy continues his emergence tonight.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dylan Cease (RHP, Chicago White Sox)

This isn’t a great spot for the 23-year-old Dylan Cease to continue breaking in his saddle in the big leagues. The Twins are running hot, averaging 8.8 runs/game over their last five, and Cease hasn’t impressed very much in his three starts, which all came against average/below average offenses (Detroit, Kansas City, Tampa Bay), en route to a 6.19 ERA and 4.94 xFIP. I have to imagine the (likely) top three guys in this order will continue to mash: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz (did he do anything noteworthy yesterday?). Miguel Sano is always a boom/bust GPP option and Luis Arraez is a great slap hitter who can often net you double-digit fantasy points at a decently low DFS salary.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

How many people are hopping on the Wojciechowski bandwagon after he struck out ten Red Sox across 7.1 shutout innings and allowed one hit? I’m not ready to jump on board just yet. Wojciechowski has relied heavily on strikeouts through his first 23 professional innings and this is an Angels team that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball (18.8% kRate versus RHPs). Wojciechowski is also allowing a very high 53.7% Fly Ball Rate on 42.6% Hard Contact. That’s a pretty dangerous combo when facing an Angels team that has the 10th highest home run rate at home along with a guy named Mike Trout. Both teams have depleted bullpens after last night's 16 inning marathon, so add another advantage there. Your usual suspects are in play here: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher, Justin Upton, and Kole Calhoun.

Detroit Tigers vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, Seattle Mariners)

This is a rare quality spot to get a couple Detroit batters into some lineups since they’re always so cheap (due to their general suckiness) but they hit LHPs considerably better than RHPs. In Kikuchi’s last 10 starts dating back to May 25th, he’s pitched 47 innings and has posted a 7.85 ERA, 6.26 xFIP, 2.00 WHIP, 2.70 HR/9 while throwing just 12.9% strikeouts and allowing a .347 AVG/.435 wOBA. Really, really ugly numbers. I could see strong performances from lead-off man JaCoby Jones and from Nicholas Castellanos, who should be batting clean-up. For secondary options, Jeimer Candelario and Brandon Dixon wouldn’t be the worst guys to roll out and they have some decent power. I wouldn’t go with a full-on four or five man stack with this team but they’ll probably look like a pretty capable offense tonight so who knows how they’ll ultimately shake out. We see those 10+ run games from bad offenses occur all the time.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Francisco Lindor (DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k) | SS | vs. RHP Jakob Junis

It’s really been smooth sailing for Lindor as of late. He’s hitting for a .300 average over the last month, .380 for the last week. He’ll face off against Jakob Junis who he has enjoyed plenty of success against. In 26 plate appearances, Lindor is hitting Junis to the tune of a .480 AVG, .576 wOBA, and .480 ISO with three homers and nine RBI. As a switch hitter, Lindor has much more positive splits against RHPs and I wouldn’t expect the hot bat to cool off now.

Austin Meadows (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k) | OF | vs. RHP Jacob Waguespack

I believe we’re getting a nice discount on both sites with Meadows in this spot. Waguespack hasn’t done much to overly impress me yet and Meadows is a very strong hitter against RHPs, batting .304 with a .405 wOBA, .249 ISO, and 45.7% Hard Contact Rate. He’s cooled off a bit lately but over the last two weeks he has an average exit velocity of 97.6 mph versus RHPs (top 95%) and is generating 61.7% Hard Contact against just 7.7% Soft Contact. I hate to say a player is “due”… but… he’s kinda due for a huge game soon. I’ll take a shot on Meadows by making him my home run call of the night. 💣

Austin Nola (DK: $4k, FD: $2.4k) | 1B/2B | vs. LHP Daniel Norris

Kinda wish that the DraftKings price was a little cheaper but I’m still liking the potential for Nola facing off against a subpar lefty and he feels like a bargain on FanDuel. It’s obviously a very small sample size here of just 17 plate appearances, but Nola has a .438 average against lefties with a .994 wOBA+ISO with a pair of home runs already. Norris struggles a bit more on the road where he allows righties to hit for a .313 AVG and .353 wOBA. Nola likely won’t get a great spot in the order but that should keep his ownership way down. The Mariners are projected to score plenty of runs with a 5.1 implied total and Nola could play a vital part in their offense as a legitimate home run threat this evening.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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