Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Plenty of teams are receiving a day off today so we’ll have just six games to dig into for this evening’s main slate. Pitching options are pretty thin and I don’t believe anyone will have a ton of confidence in who they elect to roll out. It may just be a day to pay down on arms and hope for the best. On the flip-side, you have to feel good about many of these offenses and their ability to put up a bevy of runs -- six teams currently have an implied total of 5.2 runs or higher. Despite the small slate, many of the game's superstar sluggers fall into our crosshairs so figuring out which ones to pay up for will be a focus for me today. Without even a slight chance of rain anywhere, we shouldn’t have to give much attention towards tracking any weather, so let’s get right to it!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

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Pitchers to Consider

Jose Berrios (DK: $10.6k, FD: $9.3k) | RHP | MIN @ CWS

I really don’t look to target Berrios on the road very often but, given the match-up, he likely presents himself as the arm with the highest upside on this slate. Miami’s Zac Gallen was able to hold these White Sox to two hits across seven scoreless innings last night en route to nine strikeouts. Berrios is very capable of dishing out a similar performance. He has some of the most neutral splits you’ll see from any MLB pitcher and does an excellent job at limiting production to both sides of the plate -- holding both lefties and righties to under a .300 wOBA. Berrios’ 21.5% kRate isn’t all that exciting but he could heighten that strikeout rate against these White Sox, who have struck out 27.3% of the time against RHPs over the last month (4th highest kRate in MLB). This will be Berrios’ third match-up against CWS this year, and while he didn’t have an incredible performance in either game, he still held them to just four earned runs in 14 innings. With how poorly Chicago is playing lately, I’d look for this to be his best game against them to date.

Adam Plutko (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k) | RHP | CLE @ KC

For some salary relief, I’d imagine Plutko will be a leading candidate for DFS players to target today. It certainly makes sense. Plutko is holding the Royals to a .110 average in 45 at bats and in 11 innings against them this year, he has allowed just three hits and two earned runs (both from solo shot homers). I always give a bit of pause when playing a pitcher against a team he just faced in his last start, but with limited options today I will definitely roll Plutko out in some spots.

Wade LeBlanc (DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.9k) | LHP | SEA vs. DET

If you really want to punt a pitcher tonight, then LeBlanc doesn’t seem like a terribly risky option. For these guys that pitch in a long reliever role, I tend to recommend them more as “DraftKings SP2 only” plays because you’re automatically forfeiting the ‘quality start’ bonus that FanDuel awards -- but from a pure value perspective I think LeBlanc could still pay off regardless of the QS bonus. It just doesn’t seem like too big of a deal on a slate like this where you need to find good point per dollar plays. The Tigers aren’t as easy of a match-up for LeBlanc as it may seem on the surface. Detroit actually hits lefty pitching moderately well, definitely better than they do righties, but they’re very far from great. Over the last month against LHPs they have a .262 AVG (14th), .305 wOBA (20th), .126 ISO (last), and a 90 wRC+ (21st). They also strike out quite a bit with a 25.2% kRate in that time frame as well. That low ISO and overall lack of power in the Tigers lineup is what really sells me here because LeBlanc has struggled with giving up homers this year (1.88 HR/9) so avoiding risk there is ideal. Overall, I could imagine LeBlanc pitching five or six solid innings with a handful of strikeouts alongside the potential to put himself in line for the win considering Seattle is a strong -175 favorite. 

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees vs. Rick Porcello (RHP, Boston Red Sox)

You’re definitely going to want some exposure to this game whether it’s on the Yankee side or the Red Sox side. The Yankees would seem to be the preferred option considering they are averaging 10.6 runs/game over their last five and are launching a swarm of homers. Porcello’s form has also fallen off a cliff. In his last five starts (lasting just 23 innings) he is getting rocked en route to a 10.57 ERA, 6.13 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, 2.30 HR/9 and is allowing batters to hit for a .373 AVG/.445 wOBA. If he is forced into an early exit then the Red Sox relievers will have to toss some extra innings and they’ve struggled lately. Over the last month, Boston’s bullpen has a 5.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 1.66 HR/9 and teams are hitting .275 against them. I really don’t think I have any preferred targets here. Virtually the entire Yankees order seems like they’re in play.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jimmy Yacabonis (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

You really have to predict this as being an Orioles bullpen game because Yacabonis hasn’t pitched beyond 3.1 innings in a game all season. Regardless, even if he is set to get a starter’s workload, he’s not a very effective pitcher -- definitely not someone to avoid targeting opposing batters with. But until clarified otherwise, I’m assuming he serves as more of an opener. The O’s bullpen has improved from their early season woes where they practically served baseballs up on a tee, but their 4.99 xFIP is still the worst mark in baseball over the last month and they’re still giving up a fair amount of dingers with a 1.56 HR/9, which is the 10th highest HR rate. The top half of the Angels order has nearly as much platoon fantasy point upside as any other lineup in baseball. Obviously, there’s Mike Trout. Then you have a perennial home run threat in Kole Calhoun, a productive and affordable lead-off man in David Fletcher, and a fairly reliable guy in Justin Upton. Now that the Angels can get a DH spot back, expect Shohei Ohtani to return to the order and bat third as he looks to bust out of his slow post-All-Star Break performance.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jose Suarez (LHP, Los Angeles Angels)

BAL @ LAA game stack? Maybe it’s not as sexy as stacking up NYY @ BOS but it is definitely more cost effective and carries similar scoring upside. It’s easy to not pay attention to a team like Baltimore and what they are doing but their offense has been… kinda good lately. They’re averaging 6.1 runs/game over their last seven and since then (July 17th) they rank 4th in the league with 16 HRs, 3rd with a .303 AVG, 3rd with a .373 wOBA, and 5th with a .246 ISO. Maybe it’s a flash in the pan but I’ll take some Baltimore bats against Jose Suarez and hope they keep mashing. In seven starts this year (32.2 IP), Suarez has a poor 5.51 ERA, 5.47 xFIP, and is giving up a ton of homers with a slate-worst 2.76 HR/9. I’ll lean towards targeting the O’s righties since Suarez has shown very extreme splits, allowing righties a .355 AVG, .467 wOBA, .316 ISO, 2.12 WHIP, and 3.71 HR/9. Fortunately, for Baltimore, their best hitters are righties. I’d be looking to roll out Renato Nunez, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, and (assuming he gets a solid spot in the order) Hanser Alberto. Nunez is going to be my home run call for this evening. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

JD Martinez (DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Martinez has multi-hit outings in four of his last five games and will get a pitching match-up which he has found plenty of success in. In 20 plate appearances against Tanaka, Martinez is batting .444 with a .624 wOBA, .611 ISO, alongside three homers and eight RBI. Whether you’re a BvP believer or not, that is a decent sample size and many MLB hitters have gone on record mentioning that there are definitely pitchers they either can or can’t hit effectively. Tanaka is obviously a pitcher that JD sees well. That DraftKings price tag may cause him to be a bit chalky but I’d still take some shares.

Jordan Luplow (DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Mike Montgomery

With a lefty on the mound for Kansas City tonight, I have to assume Luplow will get slotted in as the clean-up man which the Indians will often do. Luplow has extreme -- and I mean extreme -- splits. To skip a ton of other stats, I’ll quickly mention Luplow’s wRC+ splits. Against LHPs, Luplow has an excellent 180 wRC+. So he is 80% more effective at creating runs against lefties than the average MLB hitter. Against RHPs, he has an abysmal 25 wRC+ -- 75% worse than the average hitter. With Luplow’s incredible numbers against lefties (.309 AVG, .455 wOBA, .372 ISO), he is worth a shot in some lineups and we just have to hope he gets at least two cracks at Mike Montgomery before KC goes to their bullpen.

Hanser Alberto (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k) | 2B/3B | vs. LHP Jose Suarez

I know I mentioned Baltimore as a stack option but with six games it is a little tough to avoid some overlap. If you’re not stacking the O’s, Alberto makes for a really viable value play as a one off hitter. Similar to Luplow, this is largely due to his splits against lefty pitching. He has an incredible .411 AVG/.420 wOBA against lefties this year and, as such, the Orioles will often slot him in at either lead-off or second in the order when a LHP is on the mound. He doesn’t have a ton of power, evident by his wOBA being barely above his batting average, but with a .132 ISO he occasionally cracks a double into the gap or even a homer every once in a while -- and he’s doing that pretty often lately, with three home runs in the last 12 days. Regardless of the lack of overall power, all you need to pay off these salaries is a single or two with a couple walks/runs/RBI mixed in -- very doable.

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