Top MLB DFS Plays 7/24 | Opening Day 2.0: Eyeing the Season’s First Full Slate

July 24, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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It would probably be fair to say that the 2020 MLB season couldn’t have really opened up on a more shaky note. The two game slate featured a star player, Juan Soto, test positive for coronavirus just hours before the Nat’s home opener, which was a game that later had to be called after five innings due to weather. Then we saw Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw get scratched and sent to the IL about three and a half hours before the scheduled first pitch in their game. Fortunately, tonight we will have a full eleven game slate to help us kick off the weekend. If a player is a surprise scratch at 6:30 ET, it’s going to be much easier to quickly adjust and find other options to roll out.

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Tonight’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

MIA @ PHI: As of this morning, this game in Philly looks to be the only rain threat on the board. Seems like there is potential for a bit of a late start, possibly an in-game delay, but a postponement doesn’t really seem likely.

LAA @ OAK: Oakland can be a pretty tough place to hit HRs but 10 mph winds blowing out to center could help those long ball prospects ever so slightly.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. PIT

Justin Verlander (DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.2k) is the obvious stud pitcher but you can make a convincing argument that Flaherty has a very similar ceiling to JV tonight. Flaherty had an excellent season in 2019 and especially excelled after the All-Star Break. Over his final 18 starts last year, between 7/16/19 and 10/14/19, Flaherty pitched 99.1 innings and posted a 33.9% kRate, 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and allowed just a .142 AVG and .189 wOBA. Was he playing a bit over his head in that stretch? Probably. But I don’t believe we should expect a drastic amount of regression from him this season. The Pirates were a below average team against RHPs last season and in 62 at-bats against Flaherty they are hitting just .210. The Cardinals will take the field at home in Busch Stadium, which is a pitcher-friendly park, and check in as heavy -190 favorites. Given his performance last season, Flaherty also feels about $1k too cheap on DK.

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ARI

By most standards, Paddack had a very solid rookie campaign in 2019. Despite having the 24th ranked offense behind him, Paddack still managed a 9-7 record en route to a 3.33 ERA, 26.9% kRate, 0.98 WHIP, and .202 opponent batting average. Over the final four games to the season (23.1 IP) he flashed certified ace potential when he posted a 36.8% kRate, 0.73 WHIP, 0.77 ERA, and allowed a .157 AVG and .192 wOBA. This is a pretty solid match-up at home for him to open the season, as the Diamondbacks ranked 25th in the MLB last season against RHPs with an 86 wRC+ alongside a 304 wOBA. Paddack also played the D-Backs extremely well last season. In three starts against them (16.2 IP) he allowed just two earned runs (1.08 ERA) with a .197 AVG, .219 wOBA, and threw 20 strikeouts (30.8% kRate). Paddack will take the mound as a slight -130 favorite and Petco Park favors the pitcher much more often than not. He’s a solid SP2 candidate on DK and could work out as an SP1 on FanDuel if you’re planning on rolling out more big bats.

Tommy Milone (LHP) | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | @ BOS

Milone is nothing more than an extremely risky punt play in the most contrarian of GPP lineups. Also, I would probably only use him as an SP2 on DraftKings since that $4,000 price tag is really the only thing that makes him remotely viable. Nearly any starting pitcher priced at $4k, who isn’t strictly an opener, has a chance to pay off that salary with four or five innings of work. If he gets you even just 12 DKFP, which he did in about half of his 23 appearances last season, I’d say that’s solid value especially if the big bats he would allow you to roster end up going off. The Red Sox were pretty average against LHPs last season (.259 AVG, .328 wOBA, 100 wRC+) so if Milone can last four or five innings without getting completely dismantled, he could be a surprise pay-off. The Red Sox will also likely be a top three owned stack today so if Milone does work out, you might be cookin’.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Whether or not the Astros were still cheating in 2019 by stealing signs with electronic assistance could be up for debate. For DFS purposes, we just have to move forward with the data that we do have from last season and leave it at that. Houston wrecked left-handed pitching last season with an MLB leading .363 wOBA and 131 wRC+. As a reminder for what wRC+ easily tells us is that they were 31% better against LHPs than the average team. Marco Gonzales posted a very poor 5.11 xFIP last season and in four starts (20.2 IP) against the Astros, he allowed a .306 AVG, .376 wOBA, and three home runs with a 5.66 ERA (6.78 xFIP). He also walked more Astros (12) than he struck out (10) in those four games. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa would be my favorite three-man stack. All three guys had at least a 160 wRC+ and above a 44% Hard Contact Rate against LHPs in 2019.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP), SF

The Dodgers represent another premium stack for this evening. They pretty much picked up right where they left off, scoring eight runs on 12 hits in their season opener last night. The Dodgers are loaded with deadly lefties, which is the side of the plate where Samardzija struggles. Last season versus LHBs, Samardzija posted a 5.54 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, and 1.75 HR/9 while allowing a 40.5% Hard Contact Rate and 47.2% Fly Ball Rate. With all the power Los Angeles has, we could easily see two or three homers smacked off the arm of Samardzija tonight. Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Joc Pederson are three Dodger lefties I’m very interested in stacking together. All three had between a .267 and .328 ISO versus RHPs last season and at least a 43.9% Hard Contact Rate.

Oakland Athletics vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

The A’s were one of my favorite teams to stack up in GPPs last season, as they just always seemed to go under-owned but would pretty routinely explode for 10+ runs. Their lineup doesn’t really have one or two standout power hitters, but they have a bunch of guys who simply possess very solid power. Oakland’s .199 team ISO in 2019 ranked 6th in the MLB and they were 5th in total home runs (257) trailing only the Twins, Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. With essentially their same lineup still intact in 2020, you can probably expect to see the A’s mentioned in this section quite a bit throughout the season. Andrew Heaney is a solid pitcher in his own right, but he is more of a strikeout specialist (28.8% kRate in ‘19) who can often give up a ton of power. Last year, Heaney allowed a .199 ISO, 47.6% Hard Contact, and 43.6% Fly Balls which ultimately led to a lofty 1.89 HR/9 Rate. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Ramon Laureano all produced at least 44% Hard Contact against LHPs last season and that 10 mph wind blowing toward the outfield in Oakland tonight could help some fly balls carry over the fence.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Carlos Santana | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

We’ll open up the one-off section with a little BvP narrative. In 36 career at-bats against Duffy, Santana has a .444 AVG with three HRs and eight RBI. In his last 19 PA, that number has risen to a .529 AVG alongside a stout 1.042 wOBA+ISO. BvP isn’t always the most reliable metric, but Santana has enough history against Duffy to where I believe it holds some weight. Santana is normally reliable against any lefty, as he produced a .407 wOBA and 153 wRC+ last season and, as a switch hitter, match-ups with any RHPs out of the bullpen shouldn’t be a major mark against him either (.366 wOBA, 126 wRC+ vs. RHPs).

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

Machado is a great pivot off of the Bregman/Devers chalk at third base tonight when you take into account his dominance against lefty pitching and affordable price tags. Last season, Machado hit .315 against LHPs with a massive .370 ISO, .441 wOBA, 177 wRC+, and 51.5% Hard Contact Rate. A whopping 34.2% of his fly balls off of lefties went for home runs. MadBum is no slouch and he has allowed Machado to hit only .158 against him (21 PA) but the splits and overall talent that Machado possesses overrules my concerns there.

2B/SS Jose Peraza | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), BOS

The “attacking lefties” theme rolls on with my cheap one-off selection for today. While it isn’t overly likely, Peraza may have a chance at lead-off duties once the Red Sox release their lineup. Over his last 20 games against LHPs (25 PA), Peraza was hitting .375 with a .421 wOBA and he only struck out against lefties 11.2% of the time all of last season. While I wrote him up above in the pitching section (as a contrarian dart throw), there are plenty of reasons why Milone is the cheapest pitcher on the slate. For these prices, a couple hits and a run scored would be a strong return from a PT/$ perspective and considering Boston has the highest implied run total of the day, it’s pretty doable even if Peraza is batting from the nine hole.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

JD Martinez is probably the chalk “Home Run Call of the Day” so I’ll side with another elite power slugger in Cruz. In 23 at-bats in spring training, Cruz belted three homers while hitting .435. He had a 41 HRs in 2019 and his .328 ISO ranked 3rd in the MLB behind only Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. Giolito was one of the better pitchers in baseball last season but, in 12 plate appearances, Cruz has already gone yard on him three times. Ultimately, Cruz is match-up proof and can go deep against anyone in baseball. Let's see if he can open up the 2020 season with a bang.

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