Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/24 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 6:30 Day Games

• 15:10 Goldschmidt on FD

• 16:29 Bieber or Corbin?

• 17:55 Robinson Cano

• 19:37 Brad Keller @ ATL

• 22:05 Yankees & Twins Bats

• 25:20 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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What an evening of baseball that was yesterday, huh? Gotta love full 15 game slates! The grind doesn’t stop so we now turn our sights towards this evening’s eight game set. Overall, this slate seems pretty balanced by 2019’s standards. We have a trio of stud pitchers taking the mound in positive match-ups while seven teams carry at least a five run implied total. There are plenty of other factors beyond that make me feel like this should be a fairly even-keeled night but, as the way baseball typically goes, I’m sure there are a load of surprises waiting for us. I hope those who played the early slate crushed it! It appears that we won’t have any significant weather issues to concern ourselves with so we’ll slide straight into tonight’s breakdown. Let’s get it!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.8k) | LHP | WAS vs. COL

You’re really splitting hairs when it comes to deciding who to roll out between Corbin, Bieber, and Syndergaard. But Corbin’s extremely positive home splits combined with the upside that the Rockies provide via strikeouts has me leaning ever so slightly in his direction. At home this year, Corbin is rocking a stout 1.84 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 30% kRate, and 0.86 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit for a lowly .190 AVG/.224 wOBA. The guy has been absolutely elite at Nationals Park. On top of that, Colorado has been perhaps the worst team against left-handed pitching lately. Over the last month against LHPs, the Rockies are hitting .215 (27th) with a 60 wRC+ (last) and striking out 29.7% of the time. Stating the obvious here but there’s very strong 10+ K upside from Corbin tonight. The Nats are also the heaviest favorite of the day (-220) and Colorado has a modest 4.2 run implied total.

Julio Teheran (DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k) | RHP | ATL vs. KC

Teheran’s prices are getting a tad steep for my liking simply because the upside isn’t immense with him. But, if you need a pretty safe cash play, Teheran may be your guy in the mid-range of pricing. He’s a safer commodity when pitching at home in SunTrust Park where he has a 2.54 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 22.6% kRate and allows a .231 AVG/.290 wOBA. Overall, those are only slightly above average numbers but Dallas Kuechel also fanned 12 Royals hitters through six innings last night, so they’re clearly not afraid to go in to this game swinging free. The Braves are also the second heaviest favorite on the day (-190) behind Washington, so there’s a strong chance Teheran earns himself a win in this one.

Zac Gallen (DK: $7.8k, FD: $6.8k) | RHP | MIA @ CWS

Gallen has been pretty solid through his first five Major League starts and this should be his highest upside match-up to date. The White Sox will likely roll out five lefties tonight and Gallen is striking lefty batters out at a high 31% kRate while holding them to a .184 AVG and .270 wOBA. He’s not bad at punching out RHBs either, with a solid 22.8% kRate but he issues a ton of free passes to that side of the plate with a 17.5% Walk Rate. Gallen’s sample sizes are still too small to really rely on too much but a couple things we do know concerning his opponent is that the White Sox have been struggling to put even just three runs on the board in games consistently and they’ve been striking out a ton lately. Their 27.6% kRate against RHPs is the second highest mark in baseball over the last month and they aren’t generating a ton of power with a lowly .136 team ISO (ranks last). Ultimately, it’s hard to put a ton of trust in a 23-year-old rookie pitcher but the sole fact that he brings 8 to 10 K potential to the table will have me reaching for some shares this evening.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Washington Nationals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP, Colorado Rockies)

In Coors Field or away from Coors Field, I don’t think it matters -- Kyle Freeland is getting plastered (not in a fun way) anywhere there is a baseball to be picked up and a mound to step on. In his last nine starts (39.2 innings), Freeland has a 9.98 ERA, 6.06 xFIP, 1.97 WHIP, 3.20 HR/9, and is allowing opponents to hit .345 with a .442 wOBA. Sure, some of those numbers can be blamed on Coors, but nearly half of those innings were on the road and his splits remain fairly consistent regardless. Most of this Nats lineup is in play but I believe I’d favor Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Matt Adams.

Atlanta Braves vs. Brad Keller (RHP, Kansas City Royals)

Brad Keller has been pitching pretty well at times this season and, if you want to take a ride down Narrative Street, he grew up an hour north of Atlanta and will be making his first career start against the Braves. So hey, maybe roll him out in a lineup or two and see what happens. But I’d be much more comfortable stacking against him. The Braves are just too good at SunTrust Park. Their 5.63 runs/game at home ranks second in baseball, trailing only Colorado. Keller’s road splits are nothing to write home about either, as they include a 5.42 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and just a 15% kRate. They’ll cost you a pretty penny, but Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Donaldson, and Freddie Freeman all have immense upside. If you need to save a little coin, I could see a strong game out of Nick Markakis as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Wainwright has some of the more extreme home/road splits that you’ll see in baseball. His 7.16 road ERA is nearly five runs higher than his 2.33 home ERA and he’s allowing opponents to hit .304 with a .370 wOBA and offers up a 40+% Hard Contact Rate to both sides of the plate. Starling Marte, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson are probably my favorite bats here and all have some good history against Wainwright.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mitch Garver (DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k) | C | vs. LHP JA Happ

A catcher rarely makes it in as my high-dollar one off pick but Mitch Garver is no ordinary catcher, especially when he faces off against southpaws. He is absolutely annihilating lefty pitching to the tune of a .373 AVG, .541 wOBA, .475 ISO, and an astronomical 63.6% Hard Contact Rate. In only his last 29 plate appearances against lefties, he has five home runs. Nutty. He’s also 5-for-12 against Happ in his career (.417 AVG) with a dinger to boot. Assuming he isn’t getting the day off behind the plate, Garver will be my call to go yard tonight. 💣💥

Joc Pederson (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k) | 1B/OF | vs. RHP Jaime Barria

Pederson is never a super safe DFS investment but you know one thing he can do, and that’s hit homers off of righties. All 23 of Joc’s home runs have come against RHPs and he has hit 17 of those at home in Dodger Stadium. Barria hasn’t pitched much this year but he’s been awful on the road with a 13.50 ERA and .478 opponent wOBA across 15.1 innings. Those numbers will surely improve, but in the mean time things won’t get easier for him when he takes on one of the best teams in baseball and will have to contend with the slugger Joc Pederson batting lead-off.

Robinson Cano (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k) | 2B | vs. RHP Dinelson Lamet

Call it ‘fish bait’ a ‘donkey play’ or whatever other dumb term some DFS dudes on Twitter say, but if a guy hits three home runs in one night, I’m not going to ignore them the next day -- especially when they’re one of the cheapest bats on the board outside of catchers. Lamet hasn’t pitched many innings this year, so looking at his career versus lefties (61.1 IP), he has shown extreme splits as he allows a .271 AVG and .367 wOBA alongside a 5.01 xFIP to LHBs -- much, much worse than his strong righty on righty splits. I really don’t think I need to sell Cano very hard here. He’s just so cheap, he’ll be (likely) batting clean-up, and he just busted open a fresh box of Wheaties on the Padres yesterday. Even if he gets like… five or six fantasy points, he’s not killing your lineups whatsoever.

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