Top MLB DFS Plays 7/23 | Opening Night Has Arrived!

July 23, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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The day has finally arrived! We have a pair of primetime match-ups to launch off the long, long awaited 2020 MLB season. Usually for these small slates I won’t write up a newsletter but we can’t NOT at least chop up a little discussion on the first day of the season! But, since it is just the two games, the format is going to be a little different. I’m basically just going to try to get a semi-detailed outlook towards each game, discuss some intriguing plays, and pretty much leave it at that. Obviously there are only so many different angles you can take with just four teams on the docket. When you’re making your GPP lineups for this evening, I’d say one of the easiest ways to create a unique, non-duplicated lineup would be to leave at least $500 worth of salary on the table. It really wouldn’t be a shocker to see the optimal lineup at the end of the night have $2,000+ worth of dead salary.

I’d also recommend going very light on your DFS bankroll for this two-gamer and just try to enjoy the fact that we have baseball back. I would probably save more of my energy for tomorrow’s massive 11 game main slate, personally. But one GPP contest that everyone should take part in tonight is the “MLB Risk-Free $3 [3 Entry Max, $300K + Cash Back!]” tournament over on DraftKings. There is literally no reason not to play this contest. Even if your lines bomb, you get your money back, and there is a $20,000 top prize up for grabs that somebody has to win!

Weather ☀️

Unfortunately, we’re going to be sweating the forecast in Washington, DC as we get closer to first pitch. Thunderstorms are currently forecasted to move into the area throughout the afternoon and into the evening. The hope is that the worst of the storms will have moved out by around 7 pm ET and they can manage to still get this game in. However, the risk of a late start or in-game delay (or even postponement) is still going to be pretty high. Keep your eyes peeled!

NY Yankees (-130) @ WAS Nationals (+110) | 7 O/U

You’ll rarely find a better pitcher’s duel than the one scheduled tonight out in DC, so hopefully that rain does stay away. Gerrit Cole (DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k) will take on Max Scherzer (DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.7k). Both pitchers have an excellent offense behind them but runs will clearly be difficult to come by against these two aces. Last season, Cole ranked 1st in the MLB with a 39.9% kRate and Scherzer was not far behind, ranking 3rd, with a 35.1% kRate. Both of these guys are obviously in play and if you feel good about the under hitting in this one, you could likely get away with playing both in the same lineup on DraftKings, considering the soft pricing.

So where might the offense come from in this game?

When it comes to Nats bats, Cole (RHP) did give up 35.8% Hard Contact and a 46% Fly Ball Rate to left-handed hitters last season. That resulted in a fairly high 1.39 HR/9 Rate against LHBs. Eric Thames (47.3% HC, 46% FB), Juan Soto (43.5% HC, 38.6% FB), and Adam Eaton (35.5% HC, 43.3% FB) are three LHBs on Washington who could benefit from the power Cole gives up occasionally to the left side of the plate.

UPDATE: Juan Soto tested positive for coronavirus and will not be available for tonight's season opener (so it begins).

Scherzer (RHP) also has traditional splits and in 2019 he allowed 1.32 HR/9, .321 wOBA, and a 1.32 WHIP to LHBs. However, there aren’t many lefty bats to utilize in the Yankees lineup. It’s too early in the day to really know for sure what the batting order is going to be for New York, but one of my favorite three man stacks here would be Gio Urshella, Aaron Judge, and DJ LeMahieu. Despite being RHBs, all three of those guys had at least a .349 wOBA and 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last season.

SF Giants (+250) @ LA Dodgers (-300) | 7.5 O/U

It’s not too difficult to predict what side of this game will carry the most ownership tonight. Clayton Kershaw (DK: $7.7k, FD: $10.3k) takes the mound as the massive -300 favorite and checks in as the third most expensive pitching option on both sites. While Kershaw showed at times last season that his best days are behind him, he still put together a strong year when he posted a 16-5 record across 28 starts alongside a solid 26.8% kRate and 3.03 ERA. My guess is that he’ll be the highest owned pitcher tonight as people try to save a bit more salary for their batters and figure they will more than likely get 6+ strong innings out of him with a probably win. On the opposite side, Johnny Cueto (DK: $5k, FD: $6.6k) will be looking to make just his 14th start since the end of the 2017 season. He only started four games last season due to injury,and his final start of the season came against the Dodgers when he lasted only two innings while giving up five runs (three HRs). Cueto also didn’t show much promise across 6.1 innings pitched in the preseason where he allowed nine earned runs (12.79 ERA) on 13 hits and a massive 2.37 WHIP. Obviously, the Dodger bats are going to be the uber-chalk and betting against them by drafting Cueto + SF bats will be the most contrarian route this evening.

In GPPs, you can still grab some Dodger bats while being a bit contrarian if you lower your exposure to the (likely) 1 thru 4 hitters (Betts, Muncy, Bellinger, Turner). Will Smith, Joc Pederson, and Corey Seager are all guys toward the back half of the order that posted at least a .361 wOBA and 126 wRC+ against RHPs last season.

When looking at SF bats, Kershaw (LHP) gave up 1.58 HR/9 at home last season where almost one in every five fly balls went for a home run (19.4% HR/FB Ratio). That will get me to look at Mike Yastrzemski (43.3% FB Rate in 2019) and Wilmer Flores (38.3% FB Rate) when searching for guys who have a decent enough chance at hitting a long shot off of Kershaw. Donovan Solano and Austin Slater are also two Giants bats who were effective against LHPs last season. Both had at least a .355 wOBA and 122 wRC+ against lefty pitchers and could be worth stitching together in your contrarian SF stacks.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

Max Muncy (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k) | 1B/2B | LAD

There is only so much to break down and analyze for a two game slate so, again, I’d say keep things light on the DFS front for this evening, try to enjoy watching the games, and pray for no rain delays in DC! As a reminder, the newsletters moving forward will look quite different from this one. Starting tomorrow, I'll be detailing specific recommended pitchers to play, team stacks to target, and one-off hitters to consider. But for now... let’s play ball y’all!

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