Top MLB DFS Plays 7/23 | The First Big Domino Falls Ahead of the Trade Deadline

July 23, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We’re officially one week out from next Friday’s MLB trade deadline. While a few less notable trades have gone down over the last week or so, it felt like the first big domino fell yesterday when the Minnesota Twins traded Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays. I get the feeling that there will be a fairly high number of transactions prior to this season’s trade deadline, so make sure to keep an eye on news coming in hot on the wire!

Also, the Cleveland Indians opted to not go with the “Cleveland Baseball Team” rebrand, which is disappointing, and will officially be recognized as the Cleveland Guardians after this season. That will take some getting used to.

Alright, we’ll have our usual Friday big boy slate with 14 games on the horizon this evening. We’ll have some strong pitching, strong stack options, and very little to worry about in the way of weather. That’s the ideal recipe for a fun slate, so let’s dive into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The only worry today is the chance for a delay in a couple of spots. Otherwise, every game should get nine innings in.

NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Like last night, there’s a possibility of a stray shower making its way over the ballpark and causing a delay. That makes starting pitchers riskier here but bats will be safe.

LAA @ MIN (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Might see some light rain hanging around here but they can probably just play through it. Pretty good chance they stay dry altogether as well. It’ll be around or just above 90 degrees for pretty much this entire game with 10 mph crosswinds blowing right to left.

DET @ KC (8:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Solid hitting weather here with high-80s/low-90s temps and 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. ATL

Wheeler has faced Atlanta three times this season, twice at home. Here were his final stat lines from the two home games:

April 3rd: 7.0 IP, 90 pitches, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 10 K -- 39 DKFP/61 FDFP

June 10th: 8.0 IP, 105 pitches, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 12 K -- 40 DKFP/64 FDFP

Now, things did not go so well when he started against Atlanta on the road where he ended up with a 6 DKFP/17 FDFP day. But I’d be willing to take my chances on Wheeler, who has been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season and checks in with a slate best 2.72 xFIP and 28.8% Hard Contact %. The Braves have been hanging tough after losing Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season, but their 97 wRC+ without him over the last week would rank them 20th in that span. I liked a Braves stack yesterday versus Matt Moore and they certainly came through. Today versus Wheeler? Not so much. They’ll come in tied with a slate-low 3.4 implied run total and have yet to score a run against Wheeler in Philly this season.

Frankie Montas (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.6k | @ SEA

We should expect Montas to bring a nice floor to the table as he goes up against the Mariners at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. He’s only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last nine starts and when he faced Seattle earlier in the season, he racked up 11 Ks. They’re one of the more strikeout prone teams in the league and their 25.9% kRate versus RHPs ranks as the 4th highest in the MLB. I do believe Seattle will get a handful of hits and a couple runs against Montas, and he certainly hasn’t been ultra-consistent in his last five starts (4.71 ERA with only one win), but I see him getting over 20 DKFP/35 FDFP in this spot with a reasonable shot at hitting the 30 DKFP/50 FDFP mark.

David Price (LHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. COL

I always try to highlight one cheap ‘risk it for the biscuit’ pitcher in this section and the value guys have come through the last few slates (Houck yesterday, Manning on Wednesday, Skubal on Tuesday -- all had solid performances)… /end victory lap. The Dodgers pitching rotation has taken a hit as of late with Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May on the IL along with Trevor Bauer still on administrative leave. As a result, they have moved David Price from his bullpen role and have been stretching him out as a starter. Now, the pitch count here is going to be the major question mark. In his last three appearances, Price has thrown 42 pitches (out of the bullpen), 51 pitches, and (most recently) 66 pitches across two, three, and four innings respectively. Most baseball fans know that Price has spent essentially his entire career as a routine starter, and a very good one at that, so it isn’t as if he’s in uncharted waters here. Despite being in the twilight of his career, the 35-year-old is still putting up solid numbers in this 2021 season: 34.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 22.0% kRate, 55.6% Ground Ball Rate. If he can push for around 80 pitches, there is some nice value potential at these low $6k salaries. The Rockies have been awful against lefties when they’ve been on the road away from Coors Field. This season (vs. LHPs on the road) they have posted a terrible 67 wRC+ with a .208 AVG, .272 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 25.0% kRate. The Dodgers are the heaviest favorites today with -280 moneyline odds, so if Price can pitch the required five innings to qualify for a win, there’s a good chance he’ll snag that extra bonus and boost his fantasy score.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

I’m loving the Washington Nationals (136 wRC+ L2Weeks) against a struggling Jorge Lopez inside the hitter-friendly Camden Yards ballpark. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a great ‘late night hammer’ stack spot against Chi Chi Gonzalez as well, though they will be without a key piece in Max Muncy, who was placed on the paternity list today.

Los Angeles Angels vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

I’m a simple man. I see Happ on the mound, I stack against him. Does this have a 100% success rate? Of course not… sometimes he turns back the clock and has a nice outing. But the Angels are one of the better teams against left-handed pitching and they rank 4th in the MLB with a 115 wRC+, 2nd with a .337 wOBA and .191 ISO (vs. LHPs). Happ checks in dead last on the slate with a 6.15 ERA along with a 5.22 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and a 9.1% Barrel%. It’ll be hot in Minnesota today with some low air density, so expect fly balls to go a bit further today (bad news for Happ and his 45.7% Fly Ball%). The Twins bullpen is also fairly mediocre and can get tagged up in the later innings.

Edit: Just saw the Angels lineup that was released. No Ohtani, no Walsh. Gotta downgrade this stack suggestion a bit but, with the odd lineup, you’ll find some cheap bats here. I will list a couple I like below in the ‘value bats’ section.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Don’t look now, but the Tigers are riding a seven game win streak and have averaged six runs per game in that span with a 133 wRC+ (ranks 5th since the win streak began on 7/17). They’re also batting .315 over the last month when they have runners in scoring position -- .417 batting average vs. LHPs with RISP! There is nothing scary about this match-up with Bubic who holds a 5.03 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, and .365 opp wOBA this year. The Royals have a bottom 10 ranked bullpen that gives up plenty of hits, including HRs. Also, as a reminder, it will be around 90 degrees all game with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field in a hitter-friendly ballpark -- a nice boost, especially for the righty bats.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

Unless there is a blatantly strong pitching match-up, West Coast offenses will continue to go overlooked and under-owned. Kuhl has been good as of late and has posted a 1.98 ERA over his last five starts. However, he is definitely due for some regression as he has a 4.29 xFIP in that span along with an unsustainable .239 BABIP. Despite playing in a pitcher’s park, the Giants are somewhat quietly an excellent offense at home where they have a 118 wRC+ (ranks 5th). Some of these guys, like Mike Yastrzemski and Lamonte Wade Jr., are putting up excellent numbers recently and nobody has been playing ‘em.

One-Off Bats ☝️

2B/SS/OF Chris Taylor | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

2B/3B Jonathan India | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

SS Jose Iglesias | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

OF Justin Upton | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

SS/2B Gleyber Torres | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

3B/OF Hunter Dozier | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

1B LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

1B Miggy Cabrera | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

2B/3B/OF Josh Harrison | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C/OF Eric Haase | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

If you read the stack section, you know I’m on board with the Tigers today. Haase will find himself in the heart of the order batting third and has absolutely mashed against lefty pitching this year. It’s only a 67 plate appearance sample size, but Haase is boasting a .338 AVG vs. LHPs with a .468 wOBA and a massive .446 ISO. He’s knocked out nine home runs in those 67 plate appearances, including five home runs against southpaws in his last 20 games (24 PA). Kris Bubic is the opposite of ‘locked in’ right now. Over his last eight starts (22.2 IP), Bubic has surrendered eight home runs to RHBs, equating to a 3.20 HR/9 Rate. I really hope Haase gets two, maybe three cracks at Bubic because he’s very likely to go yard against him on one of those at-bats… especially with the hitter-friendly weather conditions in KC today.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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