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Top MLB DFS Plays 7/23 | A Day for a ‘Stars & Scrubs’ Approach?
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Who is ready for a monstrous Tuesday slate?! It can be a bit daunting to take on a day like this where you’re looking to cover the bases on all 30 MLB teams. It’s almost a certainty that there will be things you miss or overlook. It’s best to go in with some unbiased fresh eyes and a confident approach and see where it takes ya! Best of luck out there today, let’s get it!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ⛅
A pretty clear day weather-wise but there are a couple games to keep an eye on:
SD @ NYM: There’s a good chance New York gets hit with some rain but it should be of the light variety. They likely play through this one a bit wet. A delay can’t be ruled out for now but postponement seems very improbable.
COL @ WAS: We saw the Rockies/Nats game get postponed yesterday and they didn’t end up getting much rain at all, but that was a decision made by the MLB. The forecast doesn’t look as worrisome today but they could end up playing through a bit of rain. I wouldn’t expect a postponement from the current outlook, especially since yesterday’s contest got called off.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Aaron Nola (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k) | RHP | PHI @ DET
You could make a strong case for basically any of these higher tiered pitchers today but if I had to select one, I’d lean ever so slightly towards Nola. He struggled to find his groove in the early goings of the season but across his last six starts, dating back to June 21st, he’s rocking a 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29.4% kRate while holding hitters to a meager .164 AVG/.241 wOBA. A major bugaboo with Nola is his 5.08 ERA on the road this season. Still, in eight road starts he has a 5-1 record and in his last two road outings (@ ATL, @ NYM) he gave up just one earned run across 14.2 innings. He’ll get to face off with a Detroit offense that is scoring just 2.5 runs/game over their last six contests. Detroit also ranks inside the bottom five against RHPs over the last month in wOBA, OBP, and wRC+ categories while striking out 25.6% of the time. Nola will have a pretty talented counterpart to contend with in Matthew Boyd, otherwise the Phillies would be heavier favorites than their current -140 line. But Detroit has a lowly implied total of just 3.6 runs so Nola may not need a ton of run support to get put in line for a win.
Chris Archer (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k) | RHP | PIT vs. STL
Archer hasn’t been all that great this season but his DFS salaries are starting to reflect that. Still, he hasn’t had what I would consider a disastrous outing over the course of his last nine starts, dating back to May 31st. In that time he has posted a 5.04 ERA, which isn’t great, but his 3.76 xFIP is a much better indication that he’s just been getting a bit unlucky. In those nine games he has a very strong 31% kRate while holding hitters to a .234 AVG. Archer’s main issues this season have stemmed from his really high 11.3% Walk Rate and 2.18 HR/9 Rate. Very scary numbers that don’t instill much confidence in being able to safely roll him out in lineups. Luckily, he’s able to counteract some of those walks and home runs with his great strikeout upside. Archer has performed well in 11 innings against the Cardinals this season, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. Similar to someone like Robbie Ray yesterday, Archer is a guy you just have to accept will give up some runs, and potentially one or two homers, but can also fan 8-10 batters to gain back plenty of ground on the negative scoring.
Dylan Covey (DK: $4.6k, FD: $6k) | RHP | CWS vs. MIA
Ugh, is this a ‘fish’ move chasing Nova’s game yesterday? Maybe a little because Covey is not very good… at all. But Miami just allows so many pitching performances that end up being optimal plays. In Miami’s last 10 road games, they’ve scored two runs or less SEVEN times. Covey also hasn’t been awful at home this year. It may be a limited sample size of just 16.1 innings, but in that time he has only given up four earned runs resulting in a 2.20 ERA. Miami could also be rolling out six or seven righties and Covey has been a quality pitcher against RHBs in which he has allowed just a .195 AVG, .273 wOBA, and .149 ISO on 48.7% Ground Balls. Don’t expect many strikeouts from Covey due to his very low 12.4% kRate, but if he can go five or six innings, he could pay off these salaries through points earned from innings pitched alone.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Cleveland Indians vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)
I’m going back to these Indians bats today because it’s tough to really convey just how bad Aaron Sanchez has been for the last couple of months. In his last 10 starts he has been responsible for the loss in every one of those games en route to a 9.40 ERA, 6.04 xFIP, 2.13 WHIP, 1.80 HR/9 and has allowed opposing hitters to bat .347 with a .414 wOBA. His 12.2% Walk Rate is the exact same as his 12.2% kRate in that time frame as well. That won’t fly for long, so Sanchez’s days in the Majors could be numbered. We need to take advantage of stacking bats against him while we still can. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana are the more obvious guys I would look to roster. Oscar Mercado and Tyler Naquin would be my secondary choices.
Milwaukee Brewers (LHBs) vs. Tanner Roark (RHP, Cincinnati Reds)
Going with some Brewers bats, particularly some LHBs, for a few reasons here. One, Milwaukee just has some really talented lefty hitters. Two, Tanner Roark is awful against lefties -- he allows LHBs a .317 AVG, .416 wOBA, .237 ISO, 2.09 HR/9 and has a 5.93 xFIP against them. The numbers for those lefty splits get dramatically worse when he is on the road, like he will be today. The final reason, the Reds bullpen has been really bad. Over the last month, the Cincy relievers have combined for a league-worst 7.43 ERA along with a 1.68 WHIP and 2.35 HR/9. As such, Christian Yelich is probably the top bat on the slate. Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames would be a couple other lefties to consider along with Yasmani Grandal. Predicting a home run for Yeli almost feels like cheating, so Mike Moustakas will be my home run call for this slate. Let’s go Moose! 💣
San Diego Padres vs. Jason Vargas (RHP, New York Mets)
I’ve been burned by stacking against Vargas before because, as average of a pitcher as he may be, he very rarely gets completely shelled by opposing teams and he’ll allow three runs or fewer more often than not. Still, any time the Padres get a shot at a lefty, you have to give them a look as a contrarian stack. San Diego is easily a top 10 offense against southpaw pitchers. Against lefties over the last month, as a team they have a .349 wOBA (ranks 7th), .353 OBP (5th), and 118 wRC+ (6th). The Padres have four guys with a .400+ wOBA versus lefty pitchers: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe. A couple home runs out of that group tonight with be the furthest thing from a surprise. Now that he’s batting second, I really love the value the hot-hitting Margot brings on both sites.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Max Muncy (DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k) | 1B/2B | vs. RHP Felix Pena
The Dodgers are worth some stack consideration but Muncy may also be one of the best one-off hitters on the day. He may only be hitting .240 over the last month, but his offensive explosiveness is elevated by his home run potential, in which he has nine across the last 30 days alongside 23 RBI. Oh, and how about the fact that in just seven at bats against Felix Pena, he has three home runs off of him? Muncy clearly matches up with Pena’s pitch types very well, so expect good things from the power lefty.
Austin Riley (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k) | OF | vs. LHP Danny Duffy
Riley exploded onto the scene in the Majors but is now in the midst of a really rough hitting slump. He’s batting just .180 over the last month with a .254 wOBA and .177 ISO. It’s a far cry from the production he put up over his first month of playing for the Braves. Thus, he is now stuffed towards the back of the Atlanta order. So what is the appeal here? Well, one is due to his prices dropping to a range where I’d feel much more comfortable rostering him. The primary reason, however, is he gets to receive some at-bats against a lefty. Against LHPs, Riley is hitting .333 with a massive .512 wOBA, .524 ISO, 1.274 OPS, 206 wRC+, and an absurd 59.3% Hard Contact Rate. Duffy isn’t a bad pitcher but I’d take Riley’s splits versus about any southpaw arm in the league. Due to his hitting slump, expect single digit ownership on the Braves rookie outfielder tonight and hopefully he gets at least two cracks at Duffy before Kansas City goes to the bullpen.
Adam Eaton (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | vs. RHP Peter Lambert
Eaton doesn’t have massive upside but he’s a pretty consistent source of fantasy production, scoring double-digit DK fantasy points in six of his last 12 games. In that time (since July 5th), Eaton is batting .340 with six XBHs (five doubles, one triple) and a pair of stolen bases while striking out just 8.8% of the time. I’m sure Peter Lambert is breathing a sigh of relief about not having to take the mound at Coors Field tonight, but that doesn’t completely negate the fact that he has pretty poor splits versus LHBs (.309 AVG, .414 wOBA, .353 ISO, 4.90 xFIP). We should expect a good day from Eaton batting inside the top half of a very solid Washington order.
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