Top MLB DFS Plays 7/22 | Tapping into Tonight's 8-Game Main Slate

July 22, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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For the second day in a row, we’ll get a mid-sized eight-game main slate to work with. And, for those who love the big boy slates, no worries because a hefty 14-gamer is on tap for tomorrow! After a wild Monday slate where several teams scored well into the double-digits in runs, bats have somewhat cooled off the last couple of days. But starting pitching has been far from ‘dominant’ as well. So many aces and top of the rotation starters are banged up across the league, so it is no surprise that pitching has been a bit trickier to figure out these days. Hell, only one pitcher (Julio Urias) scored over 20 DKFP on yesterday’s main slate (and no pitcher surpassed 40 FDFP). We’ll see how this evening’s games ultimately shake out but I’m going to go in expecting another relatively neutral outcome between pitching and hitting. Also, no postponement worries are present once again today, so that’s always a plus! Let get to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

No postponement concerns!

CHC @ STL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): It’ll be warm -- near 90 degrees at first pitch -- but this is a pitcher’s park. Overall I’d say the warm temps moves the needle to being more of a neutral hitting/pitching environment.

LAA @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10ish mph winds blowing right to left much of the game and in from right field at times. It’ll be in the mid-80s so this looks like another neutral impact since bats benefit from the warmer temps but pitchers are helped by the winds to an extent.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sean Manaea (LHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.1k | @ SEA

I’d rather Manaea be somewhere around the mid-$8k salary range but given the scarcity of elite options on the mound today, I understand why he’s priced up a bit. He’s putting up above average number on the season with a 25.3% kRate, 12.2% Swinging Strike Rate, 1.20 WHIP, 3.28 ERA, and a 3.61 xFIP with a .298 opp wOBA. His strikeout rate has actually been rising over his last five starts (31.4% kRate) and he’s only issuing 1.9 BB/9 in that stretch. He has gone winless in that span but Oakland has averaged just 2.4 runs/gm in Manaea’s previous five starts, so he could certainly benefit from some more run support. His recent fantasy scores would certainly look a bit juicier with two or three win bonuses thrown into the mix. He faces off with the Mariners today on the road at the #5 most pitcher friendly ballpark (T-Mobile Park). He had his best performance of this season in this same match-up, also on the road, back on June 2nd when he threw a complete game shutout on 111 pitches, allowing just four hits, two walks, and struck out eight Seattle hitters. When facing LHPs at home, Seattle has posted a mere .191 AVG, .272 wOBA, and 78 wRC+ -- all three figures rank dead last in the MLB. Their 29.5% kRate vs. LHPs when at home is also the highest mark in the league. I’d expect Manaea to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate and we’ve seen plenty of chalky SPs tank lately, so feel free to lower exposure in GPPs. It is a strong spot for him though, so if you do roll with him (in GPPs), then perhaps just try to differentiate with your hitters and stacks.

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ PHI

Morton is probably one of only two or three mid-range pitchers I’d be willing to stomach on this slate. He’s been on a nice little run over the previous five weeks. Across his last six starts, Morton has posted a 2.31 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 30.5% kRate, 0.82 WHIP, .164 opp AVG, and .231 opp wOBA. He’s been a bit better when pitching on the road this season where he has a 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 28.1% kRate (4.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 27.5% kRate at home). The Phillies can be considered an above average offense against RHPs and Morton has had some trouble with them in two of his three starts against them this season. But he also hasn’t faced them since the early portion of the season, back on May 7th, and Morton has clearly been pitching considerably better as of late. I’ll look for him to continue getting it done today.

Tanner Houck (RHP) | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYY

Houck will be an interesting pitcher to ‘punt’ today, preferably as an SP2 in DraftKings GPPs. He only has 30.1 IP under his belt at the MLB level, but he has posted impressive numbers in that time: 1.78 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 30.3% Rate, 1.02 WHIP, .196 opp AVG. The main concern with him will be his uncertain pitch count. He was in the Red Sox rotation at the beginning of the season and started their second game of the year on April 3rd, throwing five full innings on 85 pitches and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out eight -- good for 19 DKFP/33 FDFP. However, he was relegated to the bullpen afterwards, then started one more game on April 18th against the White Sox before sustaining an elbow injury that knocked him out of baseball action from a month. In his first MLB action since April, he threw three scoreless innings on 49 pitches against the Yankees last Friday and gave up just one hit, one walk, no runs, and struck out three while earning a save. Houck started six games in Triple-A prior to being called back up on 7/15 but he didn’t pitch beyond four innings in any of those starts. I’d say, at best, he’ll toss 60-70 pitches, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him capped around 50 throws. But if he can land in that 60-70 pitch count range, there’s potential upside at this $5,300 price tag on DK against a watered down Yankees lineup.

Note: Don’t look at Houck’s performances from last season, where he scored 22+ DKFP/40+ FDFP in all three of his starts, and expect that sort of production today. He threw between 85 and 94 pitches in those three games, which is highly unlikely today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

I don’t really feel confident in any one or two particular offenses today, and I believe ownership will be fairly spread out, so I’ll refrain from listing any ‘top stacks’. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

I could see the BoSox bats catching a good bit of ownership today after hanging 20 runs, including a slew of HRs, against the Blue Jays in their last two games. They can be a very dangerous and powerful offense against lefties, as they showed against Robbie Ray yesterday, and over the last month vs. LHPs they are 3rd in the MLB with a .230 team ISO. They have a strong 122 wRC+ in that span as well (ranks 7th), a 19.1% kRate (7th lowest), and a 12.0% Walk Rate (4th most). Montgomery is a very serviceable MLB starting pitcher and could certainly go out there and pitch six innings while holding Boston to three runs or fewer (as he has done in both starts against them in 2021). However, he is showing some concerning statcast data over the last month, allowing seven barreled balls (bottom 10%) and a high 29.2% Line Drive %. Since the majority of line drives fall for hits, anything above around a 20% LD% can be bad news for a pitcher. The Yankees do have a strong bullpen and only one team has scored over five runs against them in their last 12 games. For that reason, a Boston stack will be more volatile and riskier than it may seem on the surface, but the upside is still there.

Atlanta Braves vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

I’m always hesitant to recommend my Braves, especially when they’re on the road (5.29 runs/gm at home, 4.05 runs/gm on the road) and ESPECIALLY without Ronald Acuna Jr. available for the remainder of the season. But… Matt Moore = bad. Moore’s 5.26 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, and .375 opp WOBA all rank as the worst marks on the slate among today’s starters. He’s also allowing a high 7.2% Barrel% rate and has been terrible against RHBs (7.03 ERA, 5.63 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, .410 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9), which Atlanta is heavy on. Also, while it is only a six game and 62 plate appearance sample size, since the All-Star Break (all games without Acuna), Atlanta is hitting .339 vs. LHPs with a .407 wOBA, .286 ISO, and 159 wRC+. Matt Moore hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any start this season so a mediocre Phillies bullpen will come in likely around the fifth inning to pitch the remainder of the game.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

The Marlins are not a good offense versus lefties and they strike out against them more than any other team in the league. Marlins Park is also a top 10 pitcher’s park, so expectations for Snell are somewhat high today and I do believe he’ll draw around 15-20% ownership. However, he has just been so, so bad on the road this year. In 36.2 IP on the road in 2021, Snell has accrued a 9.08 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 1.96 HR/9, 22.0% kRate, .322 opp AVG, and a .436 opp wOBA. Now, he does have a 5.40 xFIP on the road, which is still very bad, but not necessarily “9.08 ERA bad,” so there have been some levels of unluckiness experienced by Snell this year. He struggles to pitch beyond five innings, so Miami will probably see a good bit of at-bats against relievers. However, the Padres bullpen has been pretty average of late, and their 4.32 xFIP over the last months puts them at 16th in the league.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

2B/OF Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF JD Martinez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. TBD, MIA

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

OF Travis Jankowski | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Phil Gosselin | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN

 

(Very little stand out infielder value today. That could change closer to lock.)

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

Cruz facing off against a lefty will always bring forth some home run potential. He’s batting .362 against LHPs this season with a .422 wOBA, .238 ISO,171 wRC+, and 44.4% Hard Contact Rate. The six home runs he has in 105 at-bats against LHPs in 2021 is a bit of a surprise and seems low by Cruz’s standards. The good news is, he’ll see a familiar face on the mound in Andrew Heaney, who Cruz has gone yard against three times in the last 15 plate appearances against him. Heaney has given up 1.99 HR/9 vs. RHBs this season and allows a slate-high 90.1 mph average exit velocity. Cruz will be one of the better bets to go yard this evening.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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