Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/22 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 9:13 Peter Lambert & Rockies Bats

• 13:44 Contrarian Cards Stack

• 14:52 Clevinger & Indians Bats

• 20:27 Yankees @ Twins

• 22:47 Gerrit Cole vs. Oakland

• 24:45 Sonny Gray @ Brewers

• 29:28 Robbie Ray on FD

• 34:00 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Here’s to hoping you guys had a fun and profitable weekend. And if not… well, it’s time to hit the reset button and get things rolling! We’ve got a healthy 11 game main slate to work with tonight so I’m not going to get too long-winded with this intro. Let’s jump right in!

Today’s match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

COL @ WAS: This is our primary trouble spot this evening. There is a flash flood watch in effect and, if this doesn’t get postponed, some sort of delay seems highly likely. The Nationals organization also has a history of mismanaging weather situations so that only adds to my trepidation about this one. Starting pitchers seem very sketchy to deploy but I’m not sure how much you’d want to roll out Erick Fedde and Peter Lambert anyway. For now I will exclude mentioning any players from this game in this newsletter but if the forecast improves closer to gametime, then definitely don’t avoid the bats here. This match-up carries one of the highest over/unders of the day for a reason.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray (DK: $11.4k, FD: $9.6k) | LHP | ARI vs. BAL

If you’re not paying up for Cole or Clevinger, then Robbie Ray certainly carries plenty of appeal towards the top of pitcher pricing. He’s been recording a strong number of strikeouts with a nice level of consistency for a couple months now (7+ strikeouts in seven of last nine starts). He has also been more productive at home where he’s posting an elite 34.2% kRate while holding hitters to a .199 AVG/.293 wOBA. The Orioles have been putting up some runs lately (31 runs over last four games) but this still isn’t a great offense top-to-bottom and they’ve struck out 26.6% of the time against LHPs in the last month. Baltimore likely puts a few runs on the board against Ray, perhaps even with a homer or two. That’s just something you have to live with when you roster him. But the focus here is strikeout upside, and Ray could realistically punch out double-digit batters tonight. The Diamondbacks are also the largest favorite of the day (-260) so a win/quality start bonus should also be in the cards for the Arizona lefty.

Trevor Richards (DK: $7k, FD: $6.2k) | RHP | MIA @ CWS

The middle tier of pricing is really lacking today. Hell, it’s practically nonexistent. So I’ll be highlighting a couple cheap arms instead, starting with Richards. Do I love this play? Not particularly. But Richards has strangely been more proficient on the road this season where he carries a respectable 3.72 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, and he’s throwing exactly four more strikeouts per nine innings resulting in a healthy 27.6% kRate. The match-up is also key here. The White Sox have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games and in that time (since July 6th) they’re striking out 28.2% of the time against righties with an awful .091 ISO and 69 wRC+. Richards has been pretty terrible over the last month but he should have a solid chance at putting up at least 15 DKFP/30FDFP today. For these prices, I’d take that.

Adrian Sampson (DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.8k) | RHP | TEX @ SEA

As is often the case, my ultra-cheap pitcher is more of a DraftKings SP2 play. Even though Sampson isn’t a great MLB caliber arm, this $4,100 DK price tag is simply a joke. The Seattle offense is struggling massively, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. Sampson has also pitched well against them this season, scoring 22 and 16 DKFP in two previous appearances while garnering a win in both contests. He’s been coming out of the bullpen for a couple weeks now, so I’m guessing that’s a main reason behind the low salaries. But now with an expected starter’s workload of about five or six innings, he can easily pay off this price tag assuming the Seattle offense continues to sputter.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

Baltimore is keeping Brooks’ pitch count in check so expect plenty of innings out of this poor O’s bullpen. For the three or four innings that Brooks likely pitches, the D-backs will get a chance to tee off on a guy who carries a 6.17 ERA on the road alongside a 5.79 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate while recording just 15.2% of strikeouts. The Arizona offense is very hit or miss but I think we can get some good production from the heart of this order: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Christian Walker. If he gets the start, Alex Avila has been crushing righties this year as well and would be a cheaper guy to target. Christian Walker will be my home run prediction for tonight! 💣

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey (RHP, Oakland Athletics)

Honestly, I’ve got plenty of respect for Bailey this season but taking on Houston in Minute Maid Park is rarely a good spot for any pitcher. Over the last month against righties at home, Houston is hitting .292 with a .359 wOBA, .222 ISO, and 132 wRC+ -- all numbers ranking sixth or better in that span. Bailey has struggled more on the road this season with a 5.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and he’s allowing at least a 40+% Hard Contact Rate to both sides of the plate. All of your usual suspects are in play for the Astros but Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez would be the preferred options for me.

Cleveland Indians vs. Ryan Borucki (LHP, Toronto Blue Jays)

The Jays are rolling out Ryan Borucki for his 2019 debut tonight after he’s been sidelined with a left elbow injury since April. It’s not exactly an easy spot to return to considering Borucki’s counterpart will be Mike Clevinger and the Indians offense is averaging 6.3 runs/game across their last seven. Borucki pitched pretty well for the Blue Jays across his 97.1 innings last year but in 11 innings at the Triple-A level this year he has already given up four home runs en route to a 4.91 ERA and 5.55 xFIP… so he may still have plenty of rust to shake off. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Jordan Luplow would be my main Cleveland targets this evening.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

DJ LeMahieu (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k) | 2B/3B | vs. LHP Martin Perez

After a bit of a slump heading into and coming out of the All-Star Break, it looks like LeMahieu is back to his productive ways. Even with the brief hitting drought, over his last 20 games LeMahieu is batting .389 with a .460 wOBA, .278 ISO, five home runs, and 20 RBI. Perez is having a bit of a resurgence this year but the Yankees are hitting .410 against him in their last 34 at-bats and it is no surprise that they’re carrying the highest implied team total on the slate (5.8 runs). But the Yankee bats are also pretty pricey, so taking their lead-off man, LeMahieu, as a one-off play is a pretty secure way to get some exposure to this explosive offense.

Robel Garcia (DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Shaun Anderson

If the Cubs continue to stick Robel Garcia in the middle of their order then he’s been too productive and is too cheap to ignore. He hasn’t wasted any time becoming a valuable member of this Chicago order. In just eight starts he already has a trio of home runs while batting .290 with a .432 wOBA. It’s of course a small sample size but, as a switch hitter, he’s been more efficient batting lefty versus righties which he’ll get a chance to do against Anderson tonight. Anderson has pretty poor splits against left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 AVG, .353 wOBA, and just an 11.4% kRate. Robel Garcia should be a nice, affordable option with a strong floor and he has shown a pretty high ceiling already as well.

Marwin Gonzalez (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k) | 3B/OF | vs. LHP CC Sabathia

How about another cheapo one-off hitter with a nice floor? Gonzalez has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight starts and he could very well be slotted in at the clean-up position for a Twins team carrying a 5.2 implied run total. Gonzalez is a switch hitter but excels much more against LHPs, whom he has a .316 average against this season (.239 AVG vs. RHPs) with a .363 wOBA and 119 wRC+. Sabathia has been struggling quite a bit away from Yankee Stadium this year, especially against righty hitters, allowing a .317 AVG, .421 wOBA, 2.70 HR/9, and 44.4% Hard Contact. I think you can trust Gonzalez to have a productive outing against Sabathia while carrying some sneaky home run upside.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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