Top MLB DFS Plays 7/21 | Can Robbie Ray Mow Down the BoSox?

July 21, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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It’s a split slate Wednesday in the MLB DFS world and we have a solid mid-week mid-sized main slate on tap for this evening. Eight games are set for tonight which, in my book, is a welcomed breather from the huge 10+ game slates we’ve had since the return from the All-Star Break. It also looks like the weather will be cooperative today so no postponements are expected at this time. Let’s jump right into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

No immediate weather concerns on tonight’s main slate!

PHI @ NYY (7:05 ET, O/U TBD): Rain should be out of the area by the first pitch but a late start (maybe an early delay) cannot be totally ruled out. The skies should remain clear later into the evening so a postponement is not a concern here. Winds near 10 mph blowing out to right field.

TEX @ DET (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Winds blowing out to right near 10 mph.

CHC @ STL (8:15 ET, 9 O/U): Warmest game environment on the slate with temperatures in the upper-80s at first pitch. Busch Stadium is not a great hitter’s park and both starting pitchers are decent here. However, the first two games of this series have seen 24 combined runs scored and the warm temps certainly don’t hurt scoring upside.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. BOS

A tough Boston match-up inside Toronto’s hitter-friendly temporary home ballpark (Sahlen Field) will be the two key risk factors for Ray today. However, the 29-year-old southpaw has been unflappable for nearly this entire season and has truly made a case for himself as a dark horse to win the AL Cy Young award. He leads all pitchers today with an elite 31.9% kRate and 15.3% Swinging Strike Rate. The Red Sox have been one of the better offenses both recently and through the course of the entire season but that didn’t stop Ray from striking out ten BoSox bats and holding them to three earned runs when he faced them back on June 13th, ultimately earning himself 27 DKFP/49 FDFP. In 130 plate appearances, the current Boston lineup is only batting for a .227 AVG alongside a high 30.8% kRate. I’d say if you’re going for the ‘safer floor’ (which, does that even exist for MLB pitchers anymore these days?), Lance McCullers Jr. ($10.1k/$10.2k) stands out as a worthy option out of the high-end price range. But Ray has no doubt shown plenty of upside all season despite providing concerning statcast data. He gets hit hard (47.0% Hard%) and will give up a home run or two pretty often, but he’s managed to avoid getting completely blown up, for the most part, this season and obviously has 10+ K potential against any team he faces.

Dylan Cease (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIN

Cease checks in as the most appealing mid-range option today in my eyes. He has posted a very strong 30.0% kRate on the year and will face off with a Twins squad that has hit just .215 with a .290 wOBA and 82 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks -- all numbers that rank them well inside the bottom third of the league in that span. He’s also shown considerably better splits at home where, in nine starts and 50.1 IP, he holds a 4-1 record with a low 2.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .199 opp AVG, and 32.3% kRate (23.2 DKFP per game). Compare that to his numbers on the road in a near-identical sample size: ten starts, 47.1 IP, 3-4 record, 6.28 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .257 opp AVG, and 27.6% kRate (12.8 DKFP per game). He has posted at least seven strikeouts in his three previous starts against the Twins this season and he’ll be one of the few arms on the slate that provides double-digit strikeout upside.

Matt Manning (RHP) | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. TEX

I realize this play looks very ugly because, well, Manning just hasn’t been good through the first five starts of his rookie campaign. And I’d likely only consider him on DraftKings as an SP2 option in GPPs. At $4,100, you really don’t need a great performance out of him to hit value. The Rangers have also been BY FAR the worst offense in baseball since returning from the All-Star Break. Given, that is only a five-game sample size but they have scored a total of THREE runs in those games while hitting .142 with a .085 ISO, .182 wOBA, and an 11 wRC+ while striking out 27% of the time. Manning’s fantasy scoring has taken a hit due to the fact that he has just nine strikeouts through 22.0 IP which equates to a miserable 3.68 K/9 and 8.9% kRate. Manning is definitely not a pitcher who should be that allergic to strikeouts. At several different levels in the minor leagues, Manning has posted around a 30% kRate. Obviously there is a steep increase in talent going up to the Majors, but the Rangers certainly aren’t performing like an MLB caliber team. If you can get about 15 DKFP out of him for $4,100, I believe ya take that. And, obviously, rostering Manning would allow you to pay up for someone like McCullers Jr. or Ray while still leaving plenty of salary left over for bats.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

Gotta mention the obligatory Toronto Blue Jays stack as they once again find themselves matched up with a below average starting pitcher in Garrett Richards, take the field in their hitter-friendly home ballpark, and check in with the highest implied run total of the slate. The Chicago White Sox would probably be my second favorite team stack today. They’ve been cruising lately and rank 2nd in the MLB with a 148 wRC+ over the last two weeks. If you’re a BvP believer, they have also had plenty of success against Michael Pineda (107 PA, .330 AVG, .417 wOBA).

Detroit Tigers vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

A strong case can be made for the ever affordable Detroit stack today. Their .279 team batting average over the last couple of weeks ranks 5th in the MLB and, in general, they’ve been a borderline top 10 offense in that span (110 wRC+, ranks 11th). Jordan Lyles can certainly give his moments and pitch around six solid outings, but he’s far from a sure thing. He’s rocking a 5.20 ERA this year with a 5.00 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, and a .363 opp wOBA. Comerica Park isn’t really a great hitter’s park, but these 10 mph winds blowing out to right field should help fly balls go just a bit further. Guys like Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman, and Jonathan Schoop have posted some strong fantasy numbers as of late and stand out as the core guys to target here.

Washington Nationals vs. Jordan Holloway* (RHP), MIA

*Unconfirmed starter at the time of this writing.

Regardless of whether or not it’s Holloway on the mound for the Marlins tonight, I believe the Nats bats should garner some consideration. They’ve been absolutely on fire since the return from the All-Star Break, having scored 44 runs in five games (8.8 runs/gm). They’re being led by perhaps the hottest hitter since the break-in Juan Soto and the OBP hit machine that is Trea Turner. They’ve also received nice contributions from other cheaper hitters like Josh Harrison, Alcides Escobar, Josh Bell, and Tres Barrera. In the last two weeks, they lead all teams with a .322 AVG and .397 wOBA. They’re also striking out a league-low 17.5% of the time in that span. Whoever Miami chooses to roll out tonight, I like Washington’s odds to keep rolling on offense.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

With how downright awful the Rangers are swinging the bat, I’d expect most DFS players will avoid them like the plague (with the exception of maybe Joey Gallo as a one-off) despite the fact that Manning is an inexperienced starter and has been very subpar in his rookie season. I do believe Manning is capable of having a decent game here because there is no real reason to believe Texas will all of a sudden break out of their funk. But Manning also has accrued a very poor 5.76 xFIP with a 1.59 WHIP and he’ll be supported by a Tigers bullpen that has been pitching better lately, but on the season ranks out as a bottom ten relief unit.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jordan Holloway (RHP), MIA

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Micahel Pineda (RHP), MIN

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B/2B Johnathan Schoop | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP), NYY

OF Harrison Bader | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B/3B/OF Josh Harrison | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jordan Holloway (RHP), MIA

C Tres Barrera | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jordan Holloway (RHP), MIA

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B Johnathan Schoop | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Jordan Lyles has had some major issues in righty-on-righty situations this season which has led to RHBs hitting 2.56 HR/9 off of him along with a .317 AVG, .396 wOBA, and .267 ISO. Schoop isn’t particularly powerful against RHPs, but he has one of the better hitter profiles among righty bats in the Tigers order. He’s seeing the ball well as of late with multiple hits in three consecutive games heading into today. If he can get under one against either Lyles or the Rangers bullpen, he’ll have some 10 mph winds at his back going out to the right field. He’s had a couple of stretches this season where he’s gotten hot at the plate and stayed hot for several games, so I’m banking on his last three games (which included a homer) to be the start of another nice little run for Schoop’s bat.

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