Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

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I hope you guys had more Boston than I did last night. Obviously we had plenty of reasons to like them but they were a bit difficult to fit in (at least as a full stack) at those prices and I really wanted at least one of the higher tiered arms (Kershaw, Greinke, Berrios) in as many lineups as possible. I prioritized my pitching because there were so many good spots for offense last night. On to today which is going to bring another slate full of offense with some very hot weather games. Boston will be looking to follow up their massive game last night and Vegas clearly believes they can do it considering they have a ridiculous implied total of nearly eight runs! In the value tier, well, this is where the dart board might come in handy. There are a bunch of unknowns today. We have several players either making their Major League debut, making the first start of their Major League career, or only the second start of their career. We also have the Phillies who haven't even told us yet who will be their starter. Pay attention to the news today. This article is going to be posted early today with the main slate starting at 1:05 pm EST so for the moment I’m working with incomplete information. Here’s the Vegas lines:

It's not quite as hot as yesterday around the league but the games in Baltimore and New York are going to be near 100 degrees. Most of the other games are still warm but nothing else to that extreme. I'm seeing almost no threats of rain and the wind in Wrigley is blowing in but lightly, so it shouldn't have a huge impact.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell, TAM | DK: $11K, FD: $10K | LHP | vs. Chicago White Sox

My last couple of articles I’ve avoided talking about the obvious option at the top end of the pricing tier but today that’s not going to happen. I have little interest in Lance Lynn as an underdog on the road against a difficult Houston lineup. Kyle Hendricks just feels overpriced (on DraftKings) even in a favorable match up against the Padres. I just can’t bring myself to pay five figures for Hendricks. He’s more appealing on FanDuel at a reasonable $8.7K. That means when paying up it will be Snell all the way. The reigning Cy Young isn’t exactly having his best season at the moment but there are some numbers we can pull out here that suggest it will get better. For starters, his 4.55 ERA is ugly but the 3.56 SIERA is much more like what we would expect. His BABIP is also very high, particularly against left-handed hitters at .436 and it’s even above average against right-handed hitters at .320. To put that in perspective, last season he had a .188 BABIP against lefties and a .255 BABIP against righties. His strikeout rate is just a tad lower than last season (31% this year and 32% last year) and the walks are slightly better. His batted ball profile is very similar to last season as well. This all just looks more like some bad luck for Snell as far as his lackluster performance this season goes and some positive regression should be in his future to get back on track. Today is a good place to start against a White Sox team that does have a solid .326 wOBA against lefties but little upside with only a .160 ISO and they are striking out 24.4% of the time while only walking 6.4% of the time. Snell should be able to pick up some extra strikeouts here and I have no reason to believe he can’t take care of business in this game. Tampa Bay is a -256 favorite and Chicago has the lowest implied total on the board at 3.1 runs. I’ll be overweight on Snell.  

James Paxton, NYY | DK: $9.5K, FD: $9.3K | LHP | vs. Colorado

There is plenty to like here but also plenty to worry about. I’ll stress this is tournament only as his floor is significantly lower than normal but the ceiling here is very, very tempting. We’ll start with the bad. It’s going to be 100 freaking degrees in New York at first pitch today. Right off the bat, asking a pitcher to put up a strong performance in those conditions is truly asking a lot. In addition, Colorado isn’t a terrible team against left-handed pitching with a .329 wOBA and .195 ISO (granted much of that success has come at Coors Field). Story and Arenado are always dangerous. But the Rockies are also striking out 26% of the time against lefties this season. That’s a nice boost to Paxton’s already high upside. He has some of the better statistics on the board today as well, with a 3.94 ERA (3.99 SIERA) and 29.4% strikeout rate. Similar to Snell, he’s having his fair share of bad luck with a .442 BABIP against lefties and a .329 BABIP against righties. So far in July he’s just 0-1 in three starts but has only given up a total of five runs during that span. In his last start before the All-Star break, against Tampa Bay, Paxton had 11 strikeouts with no walks and give up just two runs but still took the loss. If he can stay healthy, which he has certainly looked it his last few starts, the sky is the limit with him the rest of the way. I would LOVE him in this spot today if not for the weather he’ll be dealing with. Still, I think you can give him a look in tournaments.  

Rogelio Armenteros, HOU | DK: $7.8K, FD: $5.6K | RHP | vs. Texas

Welp, I threw a dart at my board and this is where it landed. In all seriousness, given the uncertainty in this tier today, the main appeal of Armenteros is the match up against a Rangers squad that is fading in a hurry. They’ve now lost six straight games and are just 4-10 in the month of July after such a promising first half of the season. They are now 11 games back of the Astros in the AL West and 5.5 back of the Athletics for second place. You have to figure at this point, unless something drastically changes here soon, Texas will be selling at the deadline. All of this, obviously, is good news for Armenteros whose time at the Major League level is very limited but he has held his own so far. Up until this point he’s mainly been in a bulk reliever situation, but Chandler Rome (Astros beat writer for the Houston Chronicle) is reporting today’s start will be a normal one. I’m doing some guesswork here, as we have so many unknowns but I’m hoping we’ll get four or five innings from Armenteros which would make him worth the investment, particularly on FanDuel where he is $2.2K cheaper than on DraftKings. In 2018, in Triple-A, he went 8-1 in 21 starts (118 IP) with a 10.22 K/9 and only 3.66 BB/9. This season, he hasn’t been quite as sharp going 4-6 in 13 starts but the upside is still there with a 9.95 K/9 and a 3.32 BB/9. The floor here is zero but it’s a positive match up and there’s enough upside to make him intriguing.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees vs. German Marquez (RHP)

Truth be told, Marquez is actually due for some positive regression. His 5.12 ERA is horrible but the 3.91 SIERA tells a different story. What’s hurting him is his strikeout rate. In 2018, he has a 28.5% strikeout rate. This year that’s dropped all the way to 23.3%. If you’re not getting punch outs, it’s always going to make your life more difficult. The same goes for today because if the Yankees make any kind of contact with the baseball in 100 degree heat, with 40% humidity, and the wind blowing out at 11 mph the ball might not land until tomorrow. I like Marquez as a pitcher but today’s not the spot to take a shot on him. Is there anyone in the Yankees lineup you don’t have interest in? Judge (.369 wOBA, .215 ISO, 51.5% hard contact), Encarnacion (.347 wOBA, .278 ISO), Sanchez (.349 wOBA, .300 ISO), LeMahieu (.367 wOBA), Voit (.388 wOBA, .237 wOBA), Hicks (.355 wOBA, .279 ISO), this is getting ridiculous, Torres (.375 wOBA, .243 ISO) all smash right-handed pitching. Even Brett Gardner, who feels like he’s got to be 45 years old by now, has a .359 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties this season. The Yankees currently have a 5.9 implied run total.   

Cleveland Indians vs. Glenn Sparkman (RHP) 

Yes, Sparkman is coming off the best start of his career where he threw his first career shutout and struck out eight batters. No, I don’t think he can do it again. He has a 5.34 SIERA and a brutal 13.4% strikeout rate while allowing 40.9% hard contact. The Indians should be able to make some noise here starting with Carlos Santana who has a .964 OPS, .396 wOBA, and .287 ISO against right-handed pitching. Lindor (.361 wOBA, .241 ISO), Mercado (.339 wOBA), Kipnis (.325 wOBA), and Tyler Naquin (.338 wOBA, .193 ISO) all have a solid floor/ceiling combination. Don’t leave Jose Ramirez out of Cleveland stacks. I realize he’s been arguably the most frustrating player in baseball this season but he’s been doing some damage the past few weeks. There’s too much talent here to fade completely. Cleveland has a massive 6.7 implied run total.

Boston Red Sox vs. Asher Wojciechowski, BAL (RHP)

We can’t exactly ignore what Boston did last night putting up 17 runs and the path to do something similar is on the table again today. They are swinging some hot bats, they are fighting for their playoff lives, it will again be nearly 100 degrees at first pitch, and they're facing Wojciechowski. The stars don’t typically align for a team as well as they do for Boston today. Wojciechowski has allowed 10 earned runs and four home runs in just three starts since joining the Baltimore rotation. This whole lineup is in play as usual led by Devers (1.003 OPS, .411 wOBA, .262 ISO) who hit a ball last night that I thought might never land. Michael Chavis left the game early last night so keep an eye his status for today. We could have a little shake up in the infield if he needs the day off. Boston has a ridiculous implied team total of 7.8 runs.  

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Renato Nunez | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3K | 1B | vs. Andrew Cashner, BOS

Nunez gets to take some shots at his former teammate today. Don’t make the mistake of only paying attention to the Boston side of this game, as Baltimore should have its fair share of offensive opportunities as well. Nunez has a .782 wOBA+ISO and 2.51 FP/PA in his last 20 starts against right-handed pitching. The Orioles can be a source of cheap upside today in a positive match up with prime hitting conditions.   

Javier Baez, CHC | DK: $4.6K, FD: $4.4K | SS | vs. Adrian Morejon, SD

His price adjusted back to a more reasonable level today after a few games in a row in the low $4K range. There is still value here, however, even with the increase. Baez destroys left-handed pitching including a .843 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 starts and a 1.058 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts. The wind is forecast to be blowing in at Wrigley today, which doesn’t help us much, but it won’t be blowing in hard enough to have a major impact. I’ll take Baez against a lefty making his Major League debut in Wrigley Field any day of the week.     

Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4.3K, FD: $2.9K | 2B/3B | vs. Anthony DeSclafani

Edman has accumulated 83 plate appearances now at the big league level and it looks like his production is real. The Cardinals clearly agree because after a mix of starts and pinch hit appearances today (assuming he’s in the lineup) will be his fourth straight start. He has a .336 wOBA and .238 ISO with four home runs, 13 runs scored, 13 RBI, and even four stolen bases. He hits right-handed pitching particularly well with a .323 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 50% hard contact rate. He’ll be in one of the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball today. I’ll be taking advantage of his price while it’s still reasonable.        

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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