Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

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It’s a little hot out today in case you haven't heard. That’s really going to be the major story line for this slate. Personally, I’m looking to avoid the pitchers in the crazy hot weather games as much as I can. In addition to the heat creating prime hitting conditions we also have to consider pitcher fatigue and if these guys will be on shorter leashes (to be clear I haven’t read anything about that I’m just speculating). This is more than just typical mid-July baseball weather. Five of the games on this slate will have temperatures over 90 degrees and two of those games will be over 95 degrees. Three of the games with a temperature over 90 degrees also have an O/U of 11 or higher.  It will have a major impact on this slate so we need to acknowledge it and approach accordingly. Let’s take a look at the Vegas information:

Outside of the extreme heat, there isn’t much else to discuss here. A couple of games are showing very small chances of rain (Minnesota – 11% and Cleveland – 8%) and it’s always possible those increase as the day goes on. Cleveland is also forecast for 12 mph winds blowing out, so offense here should be pretty easy to find.  

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jose Berrios, MIN | DK: $9.7K, FD: $9.6K | RHP | vs. Oakland

Last weekend, I didn’t talk about Jacob deGrom against the Marlins because it was just so painfully obvious I didn’t feel like it would add much value to this newsletter. Today, we have a similar situation. Clayton Kershaw is far and away the best option on the board today. He’ll be mega-chalk, rightfully so, and the clear cut option in cash games. He may not be the same pitcher as he once was but he’s still a well above average pitcher facing a horrendous Miami Marlins team. Let’s not get cute. If you’re not worried about ownership, then he’s your guy. If you want to pivot away from him, I’m looking to make a case for Jose Berrios. First off, it will be a cool 76 degrees way up in Minnesota today, so right off the bat we have one of the best pitching environments on the slate (note: Kershaw is in a good pitching environment too in Los Angeles today). Berrios did face Oakland once this season, a couple of weeks ago, and didn’t have his best outing. But if you’ve paid any attention to Berrios over the years you’ll know that he’s significantly better at home (where he’ll be today) than on the road. Let’s take this season for example. In the friendly confines of Target Field he’s 5-2 in eight starts with a 2.32 ERA (3.99 xFIP), 1.10 WHIP, 23.9% strikeouts and just 3.2% walks. Away from home, he’s carrying a 3-3 record (11 starts) with a 3.72 ERA (4.75 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, 20.3% strikeouts, and 6.7% walks. Oakland is a strong offense, so the floor for Berrios here is a bit lower, but his ceiling is in-tact. Minnesota is a -136 favorite. Keep an eye on Matt Chapman as well who has missed the past couple of games. If he’s out again, that’s an additional boost for Berrios.  

Zack Greinke, ARI | DK: $10K, FD: $9K | RHP | vs. Milwaukee

This is a very similar situation to Berrios. The Brewers are yet another offense I would typically rather avoid but this is one of the few places today with a favorable pitching environment and the talent of Greinke is enough for me to pull the trigger. Before I get into his numbers this season I’ll point out that Milwaukee does tend to struggle a bit on the road, which further adds to Greinke’s appeal. The Brewers are 30-21 at home but only 21-26 away from Miller Park. Prior to this weekend’s series in Arizona, Milwaukee had won just four of its last 15 games on the road. At home this season, they have a massive .340 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 106 wRC+. Away, those numbers drop to a .312 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 90 wRC+. They also strikeout nearly 25% of the time (24.9% to be exact) against right-handed pitching and that doesn’t change much whether they are home or away. All of this boosts Greinke’s outlook, who is 10-4 this season with a 2.95 ERA. His 3.88 SIERA, while nearly a run higher than his ERA, is still solid and the 0.94 WHIP is outstanding. He’s striking out 23.2% of batters which should get a lift today against this strikeout happy Brewers lineup and he’s walking only 3.3% of batters. The one red flag with Greinke is he’s actually been worse against right-handed hitters (4.13 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, only 33.1% ground balls and 38.1% hard contact allowed) than left-handed hitters (3.12 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 53.9% ground balls, and 32.4% hard contact allowed). But this is actually more good news with Milwaukee having a significant portion of its power coming from the left side of the plate. The Diamondbacks are -134 favorites and the Brewers have one of the lower implied totals on the board at 4.2 runs today.

Porcello, Canning, or Musgrove? It Depends on Where You’re Playing

The bottom tier is rather ugly today and the situation is a bit unique. I don't love any of the inexpensive options (which is fairly typical) but what makes it unique is there are drastic differences in pricing on a couple of these guys depending on your site of choice. First, without talking about price, let’s just look at the players. Essentially we can narrow it down to Porcello, Musgrove, and Canning (just in case the sub-heading didn’t give it away). Porcello is likely to be the most popular, up against the Orioles offense which is one of the worst in baseball. He has a SIERA over five, a low 17.6% strikeout rate, and this game is going to be pushing 100 degrees at first pitch. He is a massive favorite but that really has more to do with the damage the Red Sox offense is going to do than it does with Porcello’s pitching. Musgrove has slightly better numbers (I stress slightly) with a 4.53 SIERA and 20.2% strikeouts but he also has a tougher match up against a (disappointing) Phillies lineup that is mediocre this season against righties. This game will also be in 90 degree heat. The wild card, and the option I’m likely going with, is Griffin Canning. The floor here is crazy low as he’s been pretty brutal his last couple starts. But overall, his numbers are better (4.36 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP) and he has more upside (25.3% strikeout rate). Similar to Musgrove, he has a middle of the road match up against Seattle. Bottom line, out of these three options, Canning has the highest strikeout rate and his opponent strikes out the most which gives him the higher ceiling. He’s also the only one of these three choices pitching in a game that won’t have extreme heat. When you factor in pricing, Canning is much more appealing on FanDuel but is a tough sell on DraftKings. Musgrove is a value option on DraftKings but a tougher sell on FanDuel. Porcello is the same on both sites. Take all this for what it's worth but I'm probably going to mix and match these guys a bit today.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brett Anderson, OAK (LHP)

I should be choosing offenses playing in the heat today but I can’t not mention this match up. People aren’t actually buying Anderson now are they? The 3.79 ERA and 9-5 record are great on the surface but as you start to peel the layers this is not a pretty sight. His SIERA is at 5.35 nearly two runs higher than the ERA and the BABIP is below average at only .260. This just screams “I’m due to get my ass handed to me” and that’s what I see happening today. Anderson has a cringe worthy 10.9% strikeout rate and is allowing 39.1% hard contact. He’ll be facing a Twins team today that has the second highest team hard contact rate in the league against left-handed pitching at 43.2%. Nelson Cruz, doesn’t matter how old he is, was born to smash left-handed pitching. This season is no different with a .985 OPS, .392 wOBA, .356 ISO, and an incredible 68.3% hard contact rate (that’s not a typo). Mitch Garver isn’t far behind him (smaller sample) with his 1.242 OPS, .500 wOBA, .415 ISO, and 65.8% hard contact rate. Both of these guys are priorities today. In addition you can look at Cron, who just recently came off the IL, and has a 1.078 OPS, .434 wOBA, and .322 ISO against lefties. Sano (.373 wOBA, .333 ISO), Buxton (.363 wOBA, .224 ISO), and Schoop (.365 wOBA, .246 ISO) are all firmly in play as well.     

Boston Red Sox vs. Tom Eshelman, BAL (RHP)

We don’t have a ton to go off of at the major league level for Eshelman considering he’s thrown just 10.2 innings but the 5.06 ERA and 4.92 SIERA certainly don’t paint much of a picture. Regardless, I can’t imagine how this would go well given his lack of experience at this level up against a hot Red Sox team that has gone 7-3 in their last 10 and is actually 29-19 away from Fenway this season. On top of all that, it’s going to be pushing 100 degrees at Camden Yards today with 46% humidity. Any kind of contact with that baseball and it will fly out of that stadium. This explains why Boston has a ridiculous implied total of 6.8 runs. Look no further than Rafael Devers right now who has a 1.003 OPS, .411 wOBA, and .262 ISO against right-handed pitching. Mookie (.395 wOBA, .231 ISO) and Xander (404 wOBA, .246 ISO) are strong considerations as well. Martinez has been much better against lefties this season. He’s still in play but his .328 wOBA and .177 ISO against right-handed pitching isn’t up to his typical standards. Same with a struggling Andrew Benintendi who has a .332 wOBA and .172 .ISO. Marco Hernandez, if he plays, could provide a little salary relief with his impressive numbers so far against righties including a 1.017 OPS, .423 wOBA, and .257 ISO.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Zach Eflin, PHI (RHP)

Eflin has been absolutely lit up for 13 runs in his last two starts. In his defense, they were against difficult opponents in the Dodgers and Braves, but I wouldn’t exactly consider this Pirates lineup a cake walk. For starters, five members of their projected starting lineup are either left-handed or switch hitters and Eflin really struggles against lefties. This season he’s allowing 42.4% hard contact and a .357 wOBA to lefties. Plus, it’s going to be 92 degrees with 51% humidity at first pitch. Everything starts with Josh Bell here and his 1.032 OPS, .412 wOBA, and .346 ISO. Reynolds (.928 OPS .396 wOBA, and 50.4% hard hits against right-handed pitching) is a priority as well. Moran (.349 wOBA, .203 ISO) and Dickerson (.341 wOBA, .217 ISO) both have a solid floor with plenty of room for upside in this match up. Adam Frazier is the one lefty I’m not overly excited about with just a .320 wOBA, but given the match up you can definitely consider him. I’m less excited about the right-handed bats here but Marte (.347 wOBA, .194 ISO) is always a key piece of this group. Pittsburgh has a massive implied total at 5.7 runs.  

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

A.J Pollock, LAD | DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.3K | OF | vs. Sandy Alcantara, MIA

After spending all of May and June on the IL, Pollock has returned as the player the Dodgers thought they acquired prior to this season. Since his activation, he’s 10-29 with a .520 wOBA, .417 ISO, three home runs and eight RBI. During that span (6 games) he has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of them. None of this should come as a surprise given Pollock has a .554 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games. Clearly, his early season struggles were health related. This makes him an incredible value against Alcantara today who has a 5.52 SIERA and only 16.7% strikeouts. 

Francisco Lindor, CLE | DK: $4.6K, FD: $4K | SS | vs. Jakob Junis, KC

The price for Lindor is standing out to me today. I can’t figure out why he dropped $500 on DraftKings from last night given this match up. A switch hitter, over his last 150 games against right-handed pitching he has a .558 wOBA+ISO. He’s also faced Junis 23 times in his career and he's batting .500 with three home runs and nine RBI. That has resulted in a ridiculous 1.157 wOBA+ISO and 4.4 FP/PA. This game will be in extreme heat with the winds blowing out. Ideal hitting conditions. Lindor is under priced for this spot.      

Tyler Naquin, CLE | DK: $4K, FD: $3K | OF | vs. Jakob Junis, KC

I’m going to stick with Cleveland. I realize I didn’t highlight them as a favorite stack but I like them plenty. There’s just a lot of good stacking options today, especially when you factor in the weather. Naquin, who can be a bit inconsistent, has been showing off his upside lately. In his last 20 games against right-handed pitching, he has a .785 wOBA+ISO and a 2.63 FP/PA. During that span he has an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph. In addition, and something I forgot to mention with Lindor, the Royals bullpen is 30th in the league against left-handed hitting, allowing 3.77 FP/PA. Naquin makes for an inexpensive upside bat today that should go under the radar, as he typically bats last in the order.       

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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