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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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As was expected with all of the poor starting pitching, we saw a high-scoring slate go down last night with five teams scoring between 11 and 18 runs! Today’s 13-game main slate features some better arms overall, but I’m still thinking that the offenses will have the upper hand once again. In the world of sports, all eyes will probably be fixated on game six of the NBA Finals tonight but there will be some fun to be had on the diamond tonight as well! We’ll only have two, maybe three, weather situations to monitor on this 13-game slate so that’s a win in my book. Let’s keep things rolling and dive into this one! Good luck tonight, guys!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Only two or three troublesome forecasts to keep an eye on tonight -- BOS @ TOR and SD @ ATL being the two games with the most notable concern. At this time, for the purposes of this newsletter, I will not be ruling out any particular player from consideration due to weather (aside from SPs in BOS @ TOR).

BOS @ TOR (7:07 ET, 11.5 O/U): There will be storms in the general Buffalo area, which makes a late start or in-game delay a possibility, but at this time it seems as if a postponement isn’t the most likely outcome here. This game holds the highest total on the slate and I don’t really know why anyone would want to use either starting pitcher, to begin with, but the chance of an in-game delay would make them even riskier. Bats should be safe as of now but definitely see how things are looking closer to lock in case of any notable changes.

TEX @ DET (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance for a delay if one of the scattered showers passes over the park.

NYM @ CIN (7:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Nothing particularly notable here to mention, but there will be similar conditions in this game tonight as there were in last night’s contest between these same two teams which saw 26 combined runs scored, including a slew of homers. Warm weather in the 80s with light winds blowing out in a hitter’s park. Advantage: hitters.

🚨SD @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U):🚨 This was the only trouble spot on last night’s slate and the game of course ended up being PPD despite the fact that there was hardly any rain that actually made it over the ballpark. They could have easily played. The forecast tonight looks very similar to the one yesterday with scattered storms possibly rolling through Atlanta, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll postpone again. I would like to think they’ll be less trigger happy on calling off the game and instead do what they can to get this game played. However, trying to predict what a team should do versus what they will do is a slippery slope. So, again, just check on the outlook in ATL closer to lock.

MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10+ mph winds blowing out to right field. Slight bump to bats.

SEA @ COL ( 8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Temps in the low-90s at first pitch with winds blowing out to left field at 10 mph. Excellent hitter’s weather in a hitter’s ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McLanahan (LHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. BAL

So, if I’m spending up today, I’m probably leaning towards Yu Darvish ($9.8k/$11.2k) against a depleted Braves lineup (weather permitting) or going to Aaron Nola ($9.5k/$9.1k) against another depleted offense in the Yankees that is missing several core pieces. But I’m not overly drawn to rostering either guy.

McLanahan is an interesting option out of the mid-range, though I’m sure a lot of people will be hesitant to go here after getting burned by another Rays pitcher yesterday (Yarbrough). Baltimore is actually a top 10 offense against left-handed pitching, however, McClanahan does boast a slate-best 3.25 xFIP with a high 28.2% kRate and an excellent 15.9% Swinging Strike Rate. However, a somewhat limited pitch count has been the main concern with him. He’s thrown more than 90 pitches just once in his 13 starts this season… which did happen to come in his most recent game. Obviously, they didn’t come away victorious last night when they were huge -290 favorites, but the Rays will once again be the heaviest favorites on the slate (-210) and Baltimore has just a 3.2 implied run total. Due to his uncertain pitch count and Baltimore’s ability to hit lefties well, McClanahan will be a moderately high risk, high reward GPP option.

German Marquez (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SEA

How weird would it be for a Coors Field pitcher to be chalk? Given the amount of love I’m seeing for Marquez, it seems to be a strong possibility on this slate. But, I mean, the dude has been absolutely cruising. Over his last five starts, three of which were at home in Coors, Marquez has posted an incredibly low 0.74 ERA and 0.50 WHIP with a strong 27.4% kRate while averaging 30.55 DKFP/49.2 FDFP. Aside from a bad game on the road in Cincinnati on June 12th, Marquez has not scored below 18 DKFP/34 FDFP in his other previous 11 starts. That’s truly some impressive consistency out of a Rockies pitcher. He draws a match-up with the Mariners who have been a below average offense much of the season and have the 4th highest kRate versus RHPs (26.0%). When Marquez faced Seattle on the road a few weeks ago (6/23), he pitched eight full innings and allowed just one run on two hits while striking out seven and earning the win -- good for 33 DKFP/52 FDFP. Of course, it’s never a completely safe investment rostering a Coors Field pitcher, and the weather sets up great for hitters today in Colorado. But you also cannot deny the fact that Marquez has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last couple of months.

Tarik Skubal (LHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. TEX

Skubal provides some solid strikeout potential with his 27.1% kRate. He gets a match-up with the Rangers who have struggled mightily against lefties as of late. Over the last two weeks vs. LHPs (120 PA), they have hit for a mere .171 AVG with a .214 wOBA, .063 ISO, and a 34 wRC+. Truly awful. Now, they’re certainly better than those numbers would indicate from what is, admittedly, a small sample size. However, the hope here is that they will continue to struggle on offense which would provide Skubal with 30 DKFP/50 FDFP upside. Skubal has also been a bit better at home at Comerica Park, which has rated out as the #4 pitcher’s park in terms of an adjusted run factor this season.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

The Colorado Rockies get the obvious Coors Field bump today and will be the preferred offense to stack in their match-up with the Mariners. Behind them, I have to continue to show some love to the Toronto Blue Jays despite a poor showing last night. I also don’t mind going back to some Cincinnati Reds bats again tonight.

San Diego Padres vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

(Weather permitting)

Assuming they avoid the worst of the weather and do indeed play tonight, I have to show some love for the Padres facing off with my poor Braves. Touki Toussaint will be making his first MLB start since September 14th, 2020 and he hasn’t exactly been impressive in limited work in the minor leagues this season. He also hasn’t pitched deep into games in the minors this year so, if I had to guess, Toussaint pitches only around three or four innings before a Braves bullpen that loves to implode comes into pitch the remaining frames. The Padres have been crushing when on the road lately and have posted a monstrous 191 wRC+ over the last two weeks, 143 wRC+ over the last month -- both rank 1st in the MLB in those stretches. Given, there is still some postponement potential here but as of now, I believe they’ll play and I can actually see the Padres going very under-owned as people shy away from them following last night’s postponement.

Chicago White Sox (LHBs) vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

I’m liking the potential for a lefty White Sox stack today as they face off with Bailey Ober. It’s not a great sample size, but Ober has gone up against 76 left-handed hitters this season and has allowed a .343 AVG, .452 wOBA, .299 ISO along with a 6.46 ERA, 5.77 xFIP, and has surrendered five home runs, which equates to 2.93 HR/9 Rate. There will also be those 10+ mph winds blowing out to right field in Chicago tonight. I wouldn’t totally rule out any White Sox bat just because he’s a right-handed hitter, but the LHBs do stand out as the preferred targets.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

A Coors Field stack… being low owned? It would seem to be a likely scenario tonight considering how well Marquez has been pitching. Now, I do like Marquez tonight as I highlighted him above. BUT, if he happens to be even somewhat chalky (20+% owned), then Seattle would stand out as a suitable leverage stack in GPPs. I wouldn’t expect them to rock Marquez, but if they can knock him around a little bit and manage to get 4+ innings against the Rockies bullpen, there could be some late inning potential here. The hitting conditions will also be excellent in Coors Field with temperatures in the low 90s at the first pitch and 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), CHC

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

3B Yoan Moncada | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Robert Stock (RHP), NYM

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Gavin Sheets | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Robert Stock (RHP), NYM

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Robert Stock (RHP), NYM

OF Jarren Duran | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Thomas Hatch (RHP), TOR

3B/OF/SS Wilmer Difo | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Yoan Moncada | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

I ran through Ober’s struggles with LHBs above (.343 AVG, .452 wOBA, .299 ISO, 6.46 ERA, 5.77 xFIP, 2.93 HR/9 Rate) and Moncada comes into this evening showing some pop, with two home runs in his last three games. He only has seven home runs this season, so he certainly hasn’t been showing consistent power, but those 10+ mph winds blowing out to right field should help a bit and he has posted an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (85th percentile). I believe he has a solid shot to send one over the fence this evening.

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