Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/2 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 4:20  Patrick Corbin vs. Miami

• 7:36  Fading Musgrove

• 15:56  Stack of the Day

• 20:09  Phillies @ Braves

• 23:21  Angels in Texas

• 29:33  Offense at Coors

• 38:14  Betting Lines & HR Calls

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There’s definitely a bit of a somber overtone that blankets today’s baseball action after the sudden and unexpected passing of Tyler Skaggs yesterday. That was some truly awful news. Thoughts go out to his loved ones and may he rest in peace. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will be proceeding under the assumption that the Angels at Rangers game plays. However, realize that another game cancellation could certainly (and understandably) happen but, in all likelihood, that would be announced well before the scheduled first pitch. Elsewhere, we’ll have every MLB team in play today for a typical full Tuesday slate.

Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

There are no overly concerning weather issues but as we get deeper into the summer months, quick developing pop-up thunderstorms become more and more common. So as we near lock, keep an eye on the LineStar Daily Dashboard for all up-to-date forecasted game time temperatures and weather conditions.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin (DK: $11.1k, FD: $10.6k) | LHP | WAS vs. MIA

It may get redundant to constantly pick on Miami but you can’t ignore the fact that Corbin has combined for 69.7 DKFP/107 FDFP in his two starts against them this season. He’s also been much more reliable at home despite the fact that Nationals Park isn’t typically considered a pitcher-friendly environment. In seven home starts this year, Corbin has posted a 2.17 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28.3% kRate while allowing just a .181 AVG/.229 wOBA. That is pretty lights out pitching by anyone’s standards. And, of course, Miami is one of the worst offenses in the league. Against LHPs, they are ahead of only San Francisco in terms of offensive efficiency. Perhaps he profiles as more of a cash game pitcher today and could be worth lowering exposure to in GPPs if he sets up to be relatively chalky. Corbin certainly hasn’t been the model of consistency up to this point and as most are probably aware by now, any pitcher can get blown up on any given day no matter how poor the opposing offense may be.

Matt Strahm (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | SD vs. SF

Attacking the Giants definitely hasn’t been very successful the last couple of days, as they have scored 10 runs and 13 runs over their previous two games. You know the saying “Once is a fluke. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a trend.”? Well, I don’t know about you, but I’m not sure that I’m prepared to crown the Giants as a ‘trending’ powerhouse offense just yet. However, I do realize that recent lineup adjustments have made them a more respectable offense in general. Even though Matt Strahm hasn’t been all that great this year, he brings some decent upside as a cheap GPP pitcher and is coming off of a 9 K performance at Baltimore. Across the entire season, the Giants have a miserable .195 AVG, .249 wOBA, .110 ISO, and 49 wRC+ against LHPs on the road. They also strike out 26% of the time. Again, they’re getting a bit better but the core of the order responsible for those awful numbers still land in the starting lineup daily. Assuming the Giants are due to regress back more towards their usual minor league-esque level of offensive ways and Strahm can find some of the form he showed in April/May, he could wind up as a solid value play by day’s end.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taylor Clarke (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Now that the Dodgers are through with their Coors Field series, we can get them at salaries that won’t entirely break the bank. In terms of offensive production at home, the Dodgers rank 4th in the league scoring 5.63 runs/game -- and I believe we can sort of put an asterisk beside two teams that are ahead of them (Rockies & Rangers). They’re also a team built to destroy right-handed pitching and Taylor Clarke could very well be their next victim. He allows a lofty .423 wOBA, .325 ISO to LHBs and a .366 wOBA, .261 ISO to RHBs, which is still plenty bad. You’re obviously going to be paying a premium when taking Cody Bellinger so some other more affordable pieces in this offense to consider would be Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, and a red hot Chris Taylor. 

New York Yankees vs. Zach Wheeler (RHP, New York Mets)

Hopefully the Yankees have put the jet lag behind them after their weekend in London. Now that they’re back stateside, they’ll face a solid pitcher in Zack Wheeler. So with that in mind, along with this being a 15 game slate, perhaps we see the Yankees ownership a bit lower than what we’ve gotten accustomed to. The Yankees scored nine runs (five earned) in just 4.2 innings against Wheeler in their last meeting with him on June 11th. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance to that degree but there aren’t a whole lot of arms that have been able to slow down this Yankees group that is, over the last month, batting .350 (2nd) with a .180 wRC+ (1st) with runners in scoring position.They’ll also see some at-bats against a Mets bullpen that has been truly awful in the last 30 days (7.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .294 AVG, 2.14 HR/9). Honestly, in terms of “stackability,” you can make a case for pretty much anyone throughout this entire Yankees batting order.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chase Anderson (RHP, Milwaukee Brewers)

There will be some great hitting weather in Cincinnati today and Anderson has struggled on the road this year with a 6.00 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, and just a 17.7% kRate. The Reds also tagged him up a couple weeks ago for six earned runs across five innings. Anderson has shown very poor reverse splits throughout his career and that trend has continued this season, as he allows a .403 wOBA and .239 ISO to RHBs. Bad news considering Cincy may be rolling out as many as seven RHBs tonight. I loved Yasiel Puig yesterday but he ended up getting the day off. Assuming he’s back in the mix today, I’d look to start with him and throw in guys like Eugenio Suarez and Nick Senzel alongside him. I’ll be rolling with Puig as my home run call today. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k) | SS | vs. RHP Tyler Beede

The rookie is absolutely raking right now and if he could manage to get his strikeouts under control, he could legitimately make a run at the batting title this year assuming he reaches the minimum 502 plate appearance requirement. He’s hitting .337 on the year, .380 over the last month, and .430 over the last week with a .599 wOBA, .522 ISO, four stolen bases, and a trio of home runs. Beede hasn’t done much to make him feared at the Major League level and Tatis Jr. already has a homer off of him this year. The Padres lead off man has been a pretty safe investment as of late and the premium price tag is certainly warranted.

Jean Segura (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k) | SS | vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel

I don’t actively try to highlight multiple hitters at the same infield positions but it just so happens that short stop is pretty loaded with appealing one-off bats today. The Phillies could honestly be a top team to stack considering the match-up with Keuchel and they have one of the highest implied totals of the day (5.5 runs) but Segura may be my favorite guy of the bunch to focus on. Keuchel has yet to find his groove through his first two starts and has gotten clobbered by righties across 41 plate appearances resulting in a .389 AVG, .488 wOBA, and .361 ISO. Segura boasts a strong line against lefties this year hitting .313 with a .432 wOBA and .388 ISO. He has 10 homers on the year, six have come off of lefty pitching in 181 fewer plate appearances than he has against righties. Don’t be surprised if he continues those strong trends out in the 90+ degree weather inside the hitter-friendly SunTrust Park.

Luis Arraez (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Daniel Mengden

Arraez isn’t a major power bat by any means but in true ‘Moneyball’ fashion, the guy simply gets on base. Through his first 20 professional games (67 plate appearances) he’s batting .411 with a .493 OBP while striking out just 6% of the time. Mengden hasn’t given up much power this year, surrendering just one home run in 29 innings and a stiff .020 ISO to lefties but, again, that isn’t Arraez’s game anyhow. Mengden is, however, allowing a .294 AVG to LHBs (like Arraez) along with a .429 OBP. There’s a decent chance the Twins insert Arraez into the lead off spot tonight, or at least towards the top half of the order. Given the overall effectiveness of this lineup, he should be very capable of returning value at these low salaries via simple and straightforward hit/run/RBI opportunities.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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