By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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TGIF! We get to kick off this Fourth of July weekend with a whopping 14-game main slate. Soggy weather has been a bit of an issue the last couple of days, though every game on yesterday’s main slate ended up playing without any major issues. There will still be a few ballparks in danger of running into some delay/postponement problems due to rain, but fortunately, if one or two games happen to get knocked off this slate, there are still plenty of other remaining match-ups available to choose from.

It’s a talking point that I’m sure many are tired of hearing about, but as pitchers continue to adjust to the restrictions barring sticky substances being used to doctor baseballs and increase spin rates, it’s been a bit of a whirlwind trying to figure out who we can and cannot trust in our DFS lineups. I believe those restrictions are definitely good for the game overall, but I know throughout the last couple of weeks, plenty of us have been torched by some terrible outings from certain pitchers who were otherwise super reliable prior to the crackdown. It will take a little while to see where the new baseline will settle at for certain pitchers but, on the flip side, I feel like picking and choosing the right hitters and stacks has been noticeably easier overall. Of course, nothing in baseball will ever be automatic or fully predictable -- top-tier offenses in great spots will still continue to tank on a fairly routine basis and scrubby pitchers will still come out of nowhere and toss a gem. But, hey, at least there aren’t mediocre pitchers like Spencer Turnbull and Wade Miley constantly making no-hit bids left and right!

We’ll have 28 teams to dissect and sift through today so let’s hop to it! Good luck tonight and I hope all my fellow Americans out there have a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We have a couple of trouble spots to keep an eye on for this big boy slate. Currently, the two match-ups to primarily track leading up to lock will be NYM @ NYY and TB @ TOR. For the purposes of this newsletter, the risk is high enough to where I’m leaning towards not mentioning any players from those two games for now (doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately play).

🚨NYM @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9 O/U):🚨 Rain chances jump up right around the first pitch and storms could linger for a while. Some sort of delay is quite likely here with a postponement being a legit possibility.

MIL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low coverage storms give this game about a 10% chance at seeing some kind of delay. Wouldn’t worry too much.

🚨TB @ TOR (7:07 ET, 10 O/U):🚨 Plenty of scattered showers around Buffalo, NY this evening. Those storms will bring considerable delay risk to this game and notable postponement risk as well.

CWS @ DET (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Not overly warm (70-75 degrees), but there will be 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to CF.

HOU @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Rain moves out of the area around the first pitch. They could see the potential for a late start but the skies look clear once they get going (and they could, of course, end up starting right on time). Winds blowing IN from left/center at 10-15 mph.

MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Maybe about a 10-15% chance of a passing shower making its way over the ballpark. Not a major concern.

MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Aside from Coors, this game has the best hitting weather on the slate. Very light winds blowing in but it’ll be in the mid-80s most of the game & Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #4 hitter’s park on the season.

STL @ COL (8:10 ET, 12.5 O/U): Rain will be around Coors Field today but at worst, unless the forecast changes, they’re probably only looking at some kind of delay (if anything at all). Warm with light winds blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | @ DET

I’m not really loving the prospects of spending up on pitching today, but if there is one high-end SP that looks the most ‘cash safe,’ it feels like Lynn is that guy. He had a rough start on the road against a hot Astros team two starts ago and then only pitched three innings in his previous outing against Seattle before his day ended due to a lengthy rain delay. I do wonder if people will just glance at his fantasy point total for that last game and assume he’s on a downward trend without realizing he had three no-hit innings under his belt before the game was delayed. Lynn boasts a 2.06 ERA on the season but that low ERA is backed up by a somewhat worrisome 3.83 xFIP and 3.62 SIERA. He does have a good bit of strikeout potential with a 28.5% kRate, which is up to a 31.1% kRate over his last five starts, and his WHIP sits at 0.99 on the year. The Tigers are not exactly the pushovers that many may want to make them out to be and their 107 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month actually puts them more towards the middle of the pack (ranks 15th). They’re also striking out a bit less in that span (24.7% kRate), which is down from their 26.3% kRate on the season (2nd highest kRate vs. RHPs). I also have some concerns about Lynn’s iffy splits when on the road this season, but it’s also a small sample size (four starts, 19.2 IP), so I’ll chalk it up to more of a happenstance. I know a lot of this isn’t a resounding endorsement for Lynn today but I would view him as a pretty safe investment on this slate. In 79 PA against Lynn, the current Tigers roster is hitting just .171 with a .215 wOBA and 34.2% kRate. If that BvP trend continues, Lynn should come away with an excellent fantasy day.

JT Brubaker (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. MIL

Quickly, I want to mention that if it is announced that Sonny Gray ($7.5k/$7k) won’t be on any sort of pitch limit, then he’s likely the go-to target out of this range. Gray hasn’t started since June 8th due to a groin injury but threw 53 pitches in his rehab start on Saturday. There has been no report as of yet (that I’ve seen), but I’m guessing he will be limited in some capacity. If it’s around 60-70 pitches, that would make him a less appealing option despite the attractive salaries for a pitcher of his pedigree. If he pushes for around 85 pitches, then there would be some legit upside against a strikeout-prone Cubs lineup.

Brubaker would be another potential value target today, especially since he is stepping on the mound at home. In his six starts at home this season (33.2 IP), Brubaker has posted a 2.67 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 26.3% kRate, and a .279 opp wOBA. He’s shown a quality floor in those home starts, scoring no less than 13.5 DKFP/23 FDFP (which came against a tough Dodgers squad). Brubaker will be taking on a hot Brewers lineup that has posted a stout .388 wOBA & 146 wRC+ over the last week, .355 wOBA & 124 wRC+ over the last two weeks. However, they could also regress more towards their season long averages -- they’ve been poor against RHPs as a whole (87 wRC+ in 2021, ranks 25th). Brubaker had a great game against the Brew Crew earlier in the season when he went 6.0 IP on 83 pitches, allowing one run on four hits, and struck out eight while earning the win -- good for 27.3 DKFP/49 FDFP. In 42 PA against Brubaker, the Brewers have hit .222 against him with a .322 wOBA and a lofty 38.1% kRate. The eight-run total in this game is tied for the lowest on the slate and Vegas is giving Milwaukee a fairly low 4.3 implied run total. There’s a better than a decent chance for Brubaker to provide some nice value today.

Logan Gilbert (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. TEX

Gilbert feels like perhaps the strongest value candidate of the day, especially on DK. After a rocky start to his MLB career, Gilbert has righted the ship over the last month. In his previous five starts (25.1 IP), he has come away with a 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 28.0% kRate in that span. Also, in case you see his low fantasy point total in his last start against the White Sox, remember that is the same game that Lynn pitched in which both SP outings were cut short due to being hit with a lengthy rain delay. Gilbert has been posting those strong numbers against tougher competition than what he’ll face today. The Rangers rank 19th with a 91 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season alongside a decently high 24.8% kRate. If Gilbert can get past a white hot Joey Gallo and an always dangerous Adolis Garcia, the other seven hitters should be fairly easy to work through. T-Mobile Park in Seattle has also rated out as the worst hitter’s park in the league this season and this game will carry a low eight-run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  Despite the huge slate heading our way, I imagine we’ll see the Coors Field bats run away with the highest ownership, by far (as long as the weather cooperates, which it should). With low-end starting pitchers on both sides in that game, expect the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies to both be extremely popular stack options. I have no argument against either team and will be targeting Coors bats myself. The Houston Astros are gonna check off a lot of boxes for me today as well, though their crazy high offensive numbers have come back down to earth over the last week or so.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

It’s another day where Reds bats will look mighty attractive. When they face righty pitchers at home, they have led the MLB with 53 HRs, a .375 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 133 wRC+. They’ll see a below average starter as Alec Mills steps on the mound. On the season, Mills has a 5.11 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, and 1.59 WHIP. He’s been particularly bad on the road where he has accrued a 7.40 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, and 1.84 WHIP. Mills hasn’t pitched beyond five innings in any game this season, so the Reds could see plenty of at-bats against relief arms. Across the last month, the Chicago bullpen has a 4.51 xFIP, which is the 9th highest mark in the league in that span.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

This match-up has some strong game stack appeal given the warm temperatures in Kauffman Stadium today, which (as mentioned above) has somewhat surprisingly been the #4 hitter’s park on the season. Combine that with some underwhelming starting pitchers on both sides today, and I could definitely see the over (10 run O/U) hitting here tonight. I slightly favor the Twins side, as they have checked in as a top five offense when facing RHPs on the road (108 wRC+, ranks 4th). More often than not, Brady Singer (4.70 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP) pitches decently well and doesn’t get completely blown up… but he is certainly not immune to being knocked out of games early. Also, in 67 PA, the Twins roster does have a .316 AVG against Singer with a .391 wOBA. The Royals will deploy their bottom five ranked bullpen once Singer is retired from the mound for the evening. It’s a bullpen which has given up the most home runs (23) over the last month and has posted a 5.58 ERA and 4.85 xFIP in that span.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

This may not seem like a stack that *should* go super low-owned, and maybe they won’t, but I do believe the Angels will at the very least be *under-owned*. Many will use Shohei Ohtani as a one-off hitter, that’s a given… the man is just murdering baseballs right now. But many will also likely avoid stacking any other Angels bats alongside him. The prediction that LAA will be a relatively unpopular team stack circles back to the fact that a large portion of MLB DFS players just simply overlook west coast teams when they’re at home for a number of biased reasons. However, lo and behold, the Angels have absolutely demolished lefty pitching at home this year where they lead the league with a .374 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 139 wRC+. Keegan Akin (7.11 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP) is far from a premiere lefty and could easily get knocked around early in this game. Once Akin is gone, there’s nothing too scary about the thought of facing the Baltimore bullpen either.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

C Sal Perez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

SS Paul DeJong | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

OF Brian Goodwin | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Steven Duggar | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Miguel Rojas | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF Myles Straw | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

2B/SS Ramon Urias | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

3B/2B Alejo Lopez | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

Arenado returned to Coors Field yesterday which, of course, was the ballpark he called “home” for every game of his MLB career prior to landing with the St. Louis Cardinals in the off-season. Despite the ovation from the Colorado crowd as he stepped up to the batter’s box, it was a forgettable night for Arenado in the box score as he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Now, what are the odds he duds in back-to-back Coors Field games? I’m willing to bet those chances are fairly slim. In 543 career games at Coors Field, Arenado hit .322 with a .409 wOBA, .288 ISO, and 136 Home Runs. He’s pretty much been “home run or bust” much of the season, but this is a great spot for him to go yard against his old buddy Chi Chi Gonzalez, who is allowing a .354 wOBA, .261 ISO, and 1.93 HR/9 to RHBs this season. Arenado has also hit four homers off of right-handed pitching over his last 20 games. Let’s make it a five tonight… and possibly six?

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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