Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Got the Monday blues? How about an 11-game MLB slate to cheer ya up? This is a solid set of games on deck for tonight. I’d say the pitching is a bit weak in general, and honestly, that's putting it lightly, but there is a multitude of appealing offensive stack options so we could be in for a high-scoring evening. Another bonus is the fact that there is really only one notable weather/postponement concern (Padres @ Braves), so at worst we’re looking at a 10-game slate with no other forecast headaches to deal with. Let’s kick this week off with a bang and secure a few bags for the LineStar crew!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As mentioned in the intro, there’s only one potential postponement scenario tonight. Also, while it will be warm in the majority of today’s outdoor games, there is no game location where it will be overly hot (90+ degrees). There are no particularly impactful winds to speak of either.

🚨 SD @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): 🚨 There could be a scenario where the incoming cluster of scattered storms stays to the north and slips past Atlanta while the large storm system stays south and they avoid trouble altogether, but that is not incredibly likely. I’d say the best-case scenario is they start off the game on time in dry conditions and play through some rain in the mid/later innings but that’s being optimistic. In early builds, I’d say just avoid this game for now since the ten remaining games are all clear. If the forecast looks good closer to lock and you like players from this game, then feel free to get some exposure but it will probably be risky regardless. For the sake of this newsletter, I won’t be mentioning any players from this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | @ LAD

A $10k pitcher versus the Dodgers rarely seems like a good DFS investment, but I actually don’t mind looking to Gausman in this spot especially if he’s going to be around 15% owned. If Jacob deGrom didn’t exist, I’d actually love Gausman’s chances at winning the NL Cy Young award this year. He’s just been one of the most consistent pitchers all season and has racked up an impressive 1.73 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 30.5% kRate, and 15.7% SwStr%. This will be the third time Gausman has faced the Dodgers this season and in the previous two, he’s had one great game (6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 7 K, 30 DKFP/49 FDFP) and one poor game (5.0 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 3 ER, 4 K, 8 DKFP/18 FDFP). The Dodgers are, of course, one of the better offenses in baseball but they are coming off of a road trip against the Rockies and the “Coors Field hangover” can certainly come into play here. If you’re okay with taking on some moderate risk with the tough match-up and losing some salary allocation for your bats, Gausman stands out as a strong option.

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. BAL

I just don’t know if I can stomach paying $9k/$9.1k for Kyle Gibson, especially when he’s setting up to be chalk. Sure, he makes sense against the strikeout-prone Tigers… but I just don’t love the upside at those prices (I’m sure he’ll rack up 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP now, though). Yarbrough hasn’t shown a ton of upside either, at least not consistently, but not many pitchers on this slate have. In his defense, he has faced a tough gauntlet of offenses lately -- White Sox, Red Sox, Angels, and Blue Jays (twice) over his last five starts. Yarbrough will draw a softer opponent today against the Orioles who he was able to rack up 23 DKFP/40 FDFP against when he faced them last (6/11). Baltimore has been struggling lately and have only an 88 wRC+, .298 wOBA, .130 ISO over the last two weeks with a high 26.5% kRate. Yarbrough isn’t the biggest strikeout guy by any means (19.7% kRate) but he’ll be taking the mound at home at the very pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field where the Rays will be the heaviest favorites of the day (-270). If Yarbrough can push for 100 pitches (which isn’t a guarantee), then I imagine he can cover six, maybe seven innings with five to seven strikeouts along the way and put himself in line for the win bonus.

Alec Mills (RHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.4k | @ STL

Pitching is just very suspect on this slate but I actually really like this spot for Alec Mills, especially for where he’s priced in this $6k range on both sites. Mills isn’t setting the stat sheet on fire, but he has been pretty damn solid lately. Over his last five starts (24.2 IP), Mills has posted a solid 3.65 ERA with a very impressive 2.93 xFIP. In that span, he also has a respectable 24.3% kRate, 1.30 WHIP, .271 opp AVG, .299 opp wOBA, and a high 57.7% Ground Ball Rate. After pitching out of the bullpen in most of his appearances this year, Mills has also thrown 92 and 95 pitches over his last two starts so it would seem he is fully stretched out and should take on a typical starter’s workload. The Cardinals don’t strike out very much (21.8% vs. RHPs) but, in general, they’re simply not a good offense. They rank 27th this year versus RHPs with an 85 wRC+ and Busch Stadium is a top 10 park for pitchers. It’s not a safe bet, but I so believe Mills has a strong chance to pay off these very modest salaries.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

With the suspect pitching today, you’ll have a load of appealing stack options. My favorite team stacks to target would be the New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays. I’d put the Tampa Bay Rays up there as well, though as more of a GPP stack.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

What? The Pirates? Yes. The Pirates. They’ve quietly been very, very good on offense as of late and they actually lead the MLB with a 143 wRC+, .388 wOBA, and .395 OBP over the last two weeks. They’re also striking out a league-low 17.8% of the time in that span. I actually wasn’t too far off from highlighting Caleb Smith in the pitching section above since he had been hitting a nice stride prior to getting blown up by the Dodgers in his last start. But Smith does have a poor 5.04 xFIP this season and will be supported by arguably the worst bullpen in the Majors. So, I’ll side with the red hot Pirates bats and hope they keep rolling. There are so many affordable hitters in this lineup as well so, even though there aren’t many great pitching options to spend up on today, if you’re targeting someone like Kevin Gausman, you can find ample salary relief with Pirate bats.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jerad Eickhoff (RHP), NYM

The Cincy bats have cooled off lately (85 wRC+ last two weeks) but they’re still a strong offense at home (5.39 runs/gm) in Great American ‘Smallpark” which ranks out as the #3 hitter’s park. Cincinnati did also just play Milwaukee seven games in a row, who has perhaps the best pitching staff in the MLB -- definitely top five, so that could explain some of the recent offensive woes for the Reds. Jerad Eickhoff has only thrown 12.2 IP this season but in that time he has racked up a slate-worst 6.10 xFIP and 1.66 WHIP. The Mets bullpen has also been performing very poorly as of late, racking up a 5.07 xFIP over the last month (4th worst) with a 1.54 WHIP and a 2.01 HR/9 Rate. This could certainly be one of those spots at home for the Reds where they just come out and crush for nine innings.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX

I’ll highlight the Tigers here as a pure leverage stack. Kyle Gibson could potentially hit 30+% ownership on this slate, which is kinda wild in my book. Detroit is not a “good” offense, but they’re also not as bad as many would like to believe. They also just faced Gibson in his last start prior to the All-Star Break 12 days ago and were able to get eight hits and a couple walks off of him while plating five runs in his 6.1 IP. If they can tag up Gibson early, they’ll get some innings against a below average Rangers bullpen. Aside from maaaaaybe Akil Baddoo, no Tiger bats will be over 10% owned.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

3B/OF JD Davis | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jerad Eickhoff (RHP), NYM

1B/3B Patrick Wisdom | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX

OF Michael Conforto | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jerad Eickhoff (RHP), NYM

1B John Nogowski | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

OF Ben Gamel | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B/OF JD Davis | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

There was a long gap on the IL in the middle of his last 20 games, but JD Davis has hit .352 with a .278 ISO and .467 wOBA in that stretch with four home runs. He has created a 46.4% HardHit% against RHPs this season and has racked up a massive 216 wRC+. Of course, he has been hurt most of the season, but Davis has posted some impressive numbers regardless of the smaller sample size. Gutierrez has shown some struggles against RHBs this year and has allowed a .212 ISO and 1.63 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. A poor Reds bullpen will come in behind Gutierrez and Great American Ball Park has rated out as the #1 park for home runs this season. It won’t be sweltering, but it’ll be in the mid-80s for much of this game and it’s no surprise to see a lofty total in this game. Expect a few home runs to get blasted over the fence in Cincy tonight. I’d expect Davis to account for one of ‘em. 

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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