Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/19 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 6:13  All In On deGrom

• 9:22  Yankees Offense

• 13:55  Bieber vs. Royals

• 15:50  Tournament Arm of the Night

• 20:13  Fading Corbin

• 26:14  Dodgers Bats

• 29:35  Betting Lines & HR Calls  

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Happy Friday ladies and gents! I hope you guys are ready to ride into the weekend on a high note. There is no lack of routes to take on this 14 game main slate and I think resident LineStar member and content contributor @ZeroInDenver said it best in chat yesterday: “Go with what you think. The best way to be contrarian is to think for yourself.” These newsletters are always meant to be a helpful tool but it’s important for you to put in some further research yourself in order to develop and improve your personal process. Everyone approaches DFS differently so that makes you the leading expert in knowledge about your own methodology. Finding out ways to tweak and improve your approach is a vital DFS skill in of itself. With that said, here’s to some Friday LineStar community takedowns! Let’s go get ‘em.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

No major postponement threats today. There are areas that may carry some late start or in-game delay risk. Those games include: WAS @ ATL (highest risk for delay), TOR @ DET, KC @ CLE, and OAK @ MIN. Run a final weather check once we get closer to lock to determine just how impacted rain will be in those contests.

As we get into late July, it’s no surprise that we have a ton of games that will experience 90+ degree temps so you always want to give a slight boost to hitters there.

Some notable wind conditions:

KC @ CLE: OUT to right 10-15 mph

OAK @ MIN: (Mostly) OUT to left 10-15 mph

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

David Price (DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k) | LHP | BOS @ BAL

There’s certainly no shortage of great pitchers to choose from today. If you’re not looking to spend up on guys like Verlander, Bieber, deGrom, Ryu, or perhaps even Corbin against the Braves, then it doesn’t seem like a bad idea to drop down to David Price. Boston is a very strong favorite heading into tonight with a -240 moneyline. Price has also allowed more than two earned runs just once in his previous 11 starts and in his last appearance against Baltimore he pitched quite a gem (7 IP, 7 K, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 1 W, 1 QS). Even though the Orioles popped off for nine runs in their last game on Wednesday against the Nats, they’re still struggling quite a bit after scoring two runs or less in four of their last seven games. Across the last month against LHPs, they are striking out a ton with a 27.3% kRate. Price has been excellent this year with a 28.1% kRate, a low 1.15 WHIP, 0.82 HR/9, and is holding hitters to a .232 average. He should be an excellent “floor” option and he's ideal for cash games builds.

Brendan McKay (DK: $8.7k, FD: $8k) | LHP | TB vs. CWS

I’m really digging the idea of rolling out McKay as a GPP pivot off of the more expensive arms. In three Major League starts (versus Rangers, Yankees, and Orioles) across 16 innings, he has definitely impressed after posting a 1.69 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, 0.69 WHIP, with 13 strikeouts and a .175 opponent batting average. His strong numbers don’t seem like a flash in the pan either. He’s been dominant in in the minor leagues, posting a sub-2.00 ERA at virtually every level. So the Rays may have something special in this kid. Obviously, pitching in the MLB is a completely different challenge but you could argue that his match-up tonight with the White Sox has potential to be his easiest Major League test yet. The White Sox have averaged just under 2.6 runs/game over their last nine contests and they’re striking out 25% of the time against LHPs in the last month. The Rays are very strong favorites this evening (-240) so look for McKay to have a great chance at the win and quality start bonuses when he takes the mound at home at the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.

Tyler Mahle (DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k) | RHP | CIN vs. STL

I’ll pass on Mahle the vast majority of the time when he is on the road but he’s a considerably better pitcher (and fantasy point producer) at home. This season in his seven home starts he has a 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 29.3% kRate while holding hitters to a .204 AVG and .291 wOBA. The St. Louis bats did show some life yesterday by bringing in seven runs and, admittedly, this game won’t feature very favorable weather for pitchers. But hey, it’s July. Aside from indoor stadiums and west coast parks, you’re rarely going to see good conditions for a pitcher. St. Louis has struggled plenty against righties lately (76 wRC+ last 30 days, ranks last) and Mahle won’t need to do anything extraordinary to pay off his modest salaries. Not the worst SP2 punt on the board.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, Chicago White Sox)

There’s a multitude of gas cans you can attack today, Reynaldo Lopez likely being one of ‘em. Lopez will throw for one of his ceiling games here and there but he has not been good in consecutive starts since late-April when he had a couple back-to-back match-ups against Detroit. So, after shutting out the A’s thru six innings in his last appearance, we could see some quick regression once again. Overall, Lopez has a poor 5.97 ERA, 5.58 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and gives up 1.99 HR/9. In his April 10th start against the Rays, he quickly surrendered eight earned runs on 10 hits (three HRs) and four walks before getting yanked after 4.1 innings. He’s marginally worse against lefty hitters but you can really just look to take the best Rays bats, regardless of handedness, and call it a day. For me, I would put Nate Lowe, Tommy Pham, and Austin Meadows squarely in my cross-hairs when stacking up some Tampa Bay bats.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Taylor Clarke (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Speaking of gas cans, Clarke is in danger of getting lit up tonight at home against the Brewers. His 2.14 HR/9 rate trails only Kyle Freeland (2.27 HR/9) among starters today and his 5.82 xFIP ranks dead last. Clarke holds no prejudice on who he allows production to as both righties and lefties have at least a .400 wOBA and .293 ISO against him. Aside from that Christian Yelich kid, I’d look to go back to the well today with Keston Hiura along with Ryan Braun and perhaps jump on board with Jesus Aguilar as a boom or bust GPP play, assuming he makes the starting lineup.

Atlanta Braves (RHBs) vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP, Washington Nationals)

On huge slates like this, if you’re more of a one to five lineup type guy/gal, you really don’t need to force yourself to go after risky stacks. While I don’t expect many people to be rostering Patrick Corbin, I also don’t see much love going towards the Braves either. The Braves have cooled off quite a bit post All-Star Break, after scoring over five runs just once in the last seven games. Additionally, Corbin is an ace pitcher in great form and will be looking to dominate today on his 30th birthday. However, if you dig into the numbers, you’ll notice that he is fairly average against right-handed hitters, especially on the road, where he has a 4.16 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP and allows a .332 wOBA, 1.76 HR/9, and 40.9% Hard Contact. Really not terrible numbers, but they’re not good. As you’re aware, any pitcher can get blown up at any time, and taking some discounted Atlanta righties will be a pretty unique approach today. Also remember that this game will have prime hot and humid hitting weather. Potential for an in-game delay due to a pop-up storm could also knock Corbin off the mound early opening the door to more action from a below average Nats bullpen. Not a super likely scenario, but possible. Anyhow, the preferred Braves RHBs for me would be Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Mike Trout (DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.9k) | OF | vs. RHP Mike Leake

Now that Trout is back from the strained calf and appears healthy, we should expect him to pick up where he left off when he faces Mike Leake tonight. Trout has great BvP numbers against most pitchers he’s faced in his illustrious career, but he has absolutely owned the match-up against Leake. In 30 plate appearances, Trout is hitting .538 against Leake with a .700 wOBA, .615 ISO, and three home runs. The Angels’ superstar has also decimated the Mariners in general this year: 16 games (70 plate appearances), .385 AVG, .553 wOBA, .500 ISO, 260 wRC+, with six homers, six doubles, a triple, and 18 RBI. Phew! I’m not sure if this is considered cheating, but I need a win here, so I’m taking a layup by making Trout my home run call for the evening.  💣 Joe and Chris, please don't hate. 😄

Gary Sanchez (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k) | C | vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Sanchez has been in a bit of a drought lately, as he’s played eight games since he hit his last home run (July 4th) which, coincidentally, was his first dinger in eight games prior to that. For the majority of MLB hitters, that’s not too unusual. For Gary Sanchez, it is. What makes for a potential remedy? How about some batting practice against Kyle Freeland? Freeland is possibly the worst pitcher on the slate and Sanchez, even in his current rut, has been very effective against LHPs lately. In his last 24 plate appearances against lefties, he’s hitting a respectable .286 with a strong .432 wOBA, .381 ISO, and a pair of home runs. He’ll likely bat fourth or fifth in a Yankees order that has the highest implied run total of the day (6.3 runs). Yankee bats will certainly be popular tonight, but people may be scared off of Sanchez due to fairly high price tag alongside his relative lack of success over the last month.

Harold Castro (DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Not only is Castro dirt cheap and now bats high in the order at a prime infield position to spend down on (second base), but he’s someone you could probably roll out with considerably more confidence than your typical run of the mill punt play. He’s been a great hitter in an offense that was severely lacking production for much of the year. In the last month, Castro is batting .380 with a .393 wOBA, .181 ISO, and a 141 wRC+. Stroman shuts down fellow righties with relative ease, but he definitely has some struggles against lefty bats, like Castro, in which he’s allowing a .331 wOBA and .153 ISO. Castro is also hitting .414 in his last 20 games against RHPs (62 plate appearances) and he has scored double-digit DraftKings points in eight of his last 13 games. He’s not the biggest power hitter but his ability to produce multi-hit games while scoring and batting in runs makes him a very viable value bat to roll out despite the fact that he’ll be going against a quality pitcher in Stroman and plays for a poor offense. Detroit still has a reasonably high implied total of 4.4 runs.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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