Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/18 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 9:17  Morton @ Yankees

• 10:46  Dakota Hudson $5.8k

• 12:24  Bauer or Boyd? 

• 13:50  Mets @ Giants

• 15:48  Fiers and the A’s 

• 18:03  Astros Bats 

• 18:55  Brewers @ D’backs

• 22:11  Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Thursdays will often feature a minimal amount, or often a tapered, set of games but there’s plenty of all day MLB action this go ‘round. Eight games will land on the scope of the main slate. Pitching is a bit top-heavy but, overall, it’s far from ugly. From an offensive perspective, I don’t think we’ll see a ton of crazy high scores but half of today’s teams do have an implied total of at least 4.9 runs, so maybe I’ll be wrong there. Let’s jump right into the thick of things as I do my best not to get distracted by British Open coverage.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

After a pesky Wednesday that featured a couple delays along with a postponement, it seems like we’ll need to continue paying attention towards the skies. Though, I don’t expect things to be quite as annoying as yesterday. There are really only a couple spots that feature potential trouble today.

TB @ NYY: Yesterday’s postponement results in a doubleheader being played today. However, there’s about a 20-30% chance of rain throughout the day in New York from about 1:00 pm ET and well into the night. All things considered, they should be able to get both games in but don’t be surprised by some sort of delay in game two. Starting pitchers could be a tad risky if that becomes a more likely scenario.

WAS @ ATL: In typical Atlanta fashion, some stray pop-up storms may roll through over the stadium and cause a delay but postponement risk isn’t very high at all.

OAK @ MIN: Rain may come into the picture late but overall, it doesn’t present much of a problem.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Matthew Boyd (DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.8k) | LHP | DET @ CLE

There are several other pitchers you could spend up on that can be considered safer but for the contrarian side of things, Boyd makes plenty of sense. Sure, Detroit is the largest underdog on the slate (+190) and Cleveland has hung 23 runs on the Tigers in the last three days but Boyd also leads all starters today with his 32.1% kRate and he is equally effective against both sides of the plate. From a fantasy scoring perspective, Boyd has also been very solid on the road this season, as he boasts a 35.8% kRate alongside a remarkable 2.76 xFIP. He’s also thrown double-digit strikeouts in his last three starts, whiffing 34 batters across just 19.1 innings. Some downsides: he has given up at least four earned runs in five consecutive starts along with nine home runs in that time -- not ideal. But the Indians have only been a slightly above average offense against lefties in the last month (104 wRC+, ranks 13th) so perhaps he limits the damage. Overall, if you’re playing cash games you probably want to look elsewhere and roll out a safer option, but Boyd is a strong leverage play for GPPs with ample talent and immense strikeout upside.

Tanner Roark (DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k) | RHP | CIN vs. STL

The Cards are attempting to right the ship after going 4-1 in their last five games, but that doesn’t mean that they’ve had success across the larger scope of things. In the last month, St. Louis is dead last in the MLB against right-handers with a 67 wRC+ rating. It’s important to remember that “Weighted Runs Created Plus” is a park-adjusted statistic -- a 100 wRC+ will always indicate “league average” -- so the St. Louis offense has been 33% worse than the average team at creating runs. Not good. Roark isn’t an amazing pitcher by any means, but he can shut down righty bats very well and the Cardinals could be rolling out perhaps six RHBs this evening. This season, Roark has held RHBs to a .222 AVG, .259 wOBA, .094 ISO, with a 1.01 WHIP alongside a 26.9% kRate. All very strong numbers. The Cardinal lefties don’t exactly feature a Murderer’s Row of options with guys like Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman, Dexter Fowler, and Matt Wieters. If Roark can limit trouble from those guys, expect a solid fantasy result today.

Zach Davies (DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k) | RHP | MIL @ ARI

In the territory of SP2 punt plays, I have to think that Davies is a viable option here, especially on DraftKings where he is cheaper than even a few hitters. You’re not getting very much strikeout potential with Davies (15.7% kRate) so if he lets up three or four runs then his fantasy score may be toast. Fortunately, he doesn’t often allow many runs and, relative to his price, he has been really solid on the road this year where he is sporting a 2.75 ERA and an 83.1% LOB%. After the Diamondbacks scored 28 runs on the Rangers across the last two days, don’t expect to see many people jump at the chance to roster Davies despite the low salaries. However, he’s certainly capable of delivering around 15 DKFP/30 FDFP, which I would be content with if it means I can snag some premium hitters.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Matt Harvey (RHP, Los Angeles Angels)

When Harvey is on the mound, you have to give the opposition some significant credence. He’s been especially terrible at home this season where he is rocking an 8.91 ERA, 5.60 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP and allowing hitters a .313 AVG and .410 wOBA. He’s also giving up 2.51 HR/9 at home. I don’t think there should be much to overanalyze here. Harvey has simply been (at best) a fringe MLB starting caliber pitcher this season. You could target much of this Astros order but I’d feel best about Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Yuli Gurriel and George Springer (due to price) perhaps as secondary options. Also, I'm kind of assuming Yordan Alvarez sits again today, which is why he wasn't mentioned, but he's definitely a great option if he's in the lineup.

Cincinnati Reds (LHBs) vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Hudson has very extreme splits so feel free to stack up some of these Reds lefties in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Against LHBs, Hudson is allowing a .298 AVG, .402 wOBA, .232 ISO, 1.86 WHIP and a 46.6% Hard Contact Rate which has led to 2.01 HR/9. Many of these Reds haven’t been all that effective lately but that is also reflected in their DFS salaries. I’d consider Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett as options today. Throw in Derek Dietrich as well, so long as he is able to suit up after taking a pitch to the knee yesterday.

Detroit Tigers (LHBs) vs. Trevor Bauer (RHP, Cleveland Indians)

Here’s another stack to consider due to the opposing pitcher’s pretty extreme splits, but this is obviously more of a contrarian suggestion (it is still Detroit, after all). This will be Bauer’s fourth start against Detroit this year and he’s had mixed results against them up to this point. In his June 16th start against the Tigers, he pitched an absolute gem of a game -- a complete game shut out with eight Ks and only four hits allowed. In his other two starts (April 10th, June 21st) he allowed a combined nine earned runs off of 20 hits (four home runs) in a total of only 9.2 innings. Bauer's splits against LHBs are not very good at all: .251 AVG, .362 wOBA, .242 ISO, 42.6% Hard Contact, 2.08 HR/9. Consider Victor Reyes, Christin Stewart, and Jeimer Candelario a few lefty Tiger bats to possibly roll out. Even just taking a one-off hitter or a two man stack from Detroit would be an intriguing GPP approach. 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Keston Hiura (DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k) | 2B | vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Good heavens, is Hiura crushing the ball lately or what? In his last seven games (27 at-bats) he’s hitting .556 with a .691 wOBA, .593 ISO, with nine XBHs (5 2Bs, 1 3B, 3 HRs). The 63.2% Hard Contact Rate is off the charts along with his 96.5 mph average exit velocity versus RHPs in the last two weeks (top 95%). The righty on righty match-up with Merrill Kelly isn’t very concerning. Kelly has relatively neutral splits, except he’s been giving up homers to RHBs more often (1.67 HR/9 vs. RHBs, 0.89 HR/9 vs. LHBs). Hiura has shown more power against right-handed pitching as well. Eight of his nine homers have come against righties and his .303 ISO vs. RHPs is over a hundred points higher than his .200 flat ISO against lefties. He’s getting a bit pricey but for good reason. Hiura will be my home run call for this slate. 💣

Mark Canha (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k) | 1B/OF | vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Oakland is on a major tear lately, winning 12 of their last 14 games, and Canha has played a vital role in that run. During this 14 game stretch (since June 28th), Canha has been hitting for a .326 AVG, .474 wOBA and .391 ISO with five home runs and a stout 206 wRC+. Canha, a righty, is a reverse splits hitter and even though Kyle Gibson is a solid pitcher, he’s been largely inconsistent lately. So this is certainly a beatable match-up. Honestly, I could have highlighted Oakland as a team up in the stack section because many of their bats are really clicking, but I’d definitely look to get some sort of A’s exposure going today -- whether it be through Canha or some others like Laureano, Olson, Chapman, Semien, or… dare I say it? Khris Davis (hey Khris… do stuff). 

Roberto Perez (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k) | C | vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

I know I highlighted Boyd above but that was pretty much under the pretense of him being a leverage play in tournaments. He’s still been giving up quite a bit of hits, homers, and runs -- he’s simply recovering (from a fantasy scoring standpoint) by also carding a ton of strikeouts as a counterbalance. Roberto Perez facing a lefty is always a strong play to ponder. This season against LHPs, Perez has a healthy .282 average with a huge .416 wOBA, .296 ISO, and a massive 55.3% Hard Contact Rate. When facing lefties, he has been a key component in creating runs for the Indians, evidenced by his strong 153 wRC+. It’s a minuscule BvP sample size so take it with a grain of salt, but Perez is also hitting .800 against Boyd in nine plate appearances -- worth mentioning at least. You can scroll through Perez’s game logs to see the upside he can bring to the table. It’s the sort of upside you won’t find among many other guys in this low of a price range. DFS salaries are typically depressed for ~90% of catchers so we have to take advantage of mispricings when an offensively talented catcher is in a prime spot, like Perez is in today.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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