Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 7/16 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 8:17  Dodgers Stack

• 10:47  Sabathia vs. Rays

• 14:28  Cashner in Boston

• 18:42  Reds Offense

• 22:00 Woodruff Pivot

• 25:15  Rockies & Giants Bats

• 29:25  Betting Lines & HR Calls  

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Another Tuesday in the MLB brings us another jam-packed evening with every team appearing onto the daily fantasy scope. You can quickly get a feel for what sort of day we may have in store just by peeping at the current implied game totals. As of 10:30 am ET, with HOU @ LAA yet to have a line released, there are TWELVE games with a total of 9.5 runs or higher and SIXTEEN teams with an implied total of at least five runs. Perhaps the lines are juiced a bit because the books may be feeling the affects of all this offense going on and are tired of getting beat by bettors taking straight overs -- but I don’t recall a set of totals being this high across the board all season. We’re certainly trying to predict a game that may be more unpredictable than ever before. With power hitters dominating the landscape, the days of confidently piecing together a group of pitchers that you feel strongly about are getting fewer and farther in between. Still, it’s better to at least attempt to find some areas where edges can be had as opposed to going in blindly, so let’s suit up and knock today’s slate out of the park.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ⛅

There are no glaring postponement risks at this time, but the following games carry a decent risk (20-30%) for some sort of delay: DET @ CLE (highest risk), CIN @ CHC, and PIT @ STL. Other slight weather risks could arise but, again, nothing seems overly threatening. As always, do a final forecast check roughly within half an hour of contests locking!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jordan Yamamoto (DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.7k) | RHP | MIA vs. SD

From a pure proven talent perspective, you can certainly look towards Walker Buehler or Lance Lynn when spending up at pitcher today, especially for cash games, but some strong consideration should be sent Yamamoto’s way as well -- at least for GPP builds. He may only have a small sample size of just 29 professional innings to his name, but in a day and age where home runs reign supreme, Yamamoto has yet to surrender one this year. San Diego is a boom/bust offense that relies heavily on the long ball, so throw in the fact that they are playing on the road in a very pitcher friendly environment and the match-up only becomes more appealing for the Marlins’ rookie right-hander. The Padres also offer a ton of strikeout upside. Their 26.2% kRate against RHPs is the highest strikeout rate in the Majors this year. Yamamoto has posted some impressive numbers in the early goings of his MLB career -- through five starts he is 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA, 27% kRate, 0.90 WHIP, and is holding hitters to a .116 average. Those numbers will clearly regress, especially when taking his 4.80 SIERA and .169 BABIP into consideration. But the regression monster may stay away for at least one more game.

Jack Flaherty (DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k) | RHP | STL vs. PIT

On the year, Flaherty has some of the more extreme home/road splits that you will see among seasoned pitchers. Given the fact that he is at home today, and facing a Pirates team that is averaging 2.5 runs/game over their last four, Flaherty should be a pretty viable mid-level pitcher to roll out. At home this season, Flaherty has a 3.48 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 28.4% kRate, and 0.95 WHIP while holding batters to a .209 AVG and .279 wOBA. Those are numbers fringing on the level of “elite.” No one is confusing Flaherty with Justin Verlander this year, but as long as he’s pitching in Busch Stadium, he becomes a fairly reliable source of fantasy production. Aside from Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, and maybe Kevin Newman, I don’t believe Flaherty should have too much trouble navigating through the rest of this Pittsburgh order.

Zach Plesac (DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k) | RHP | CLE vs. DET

Truthfully, I don’t love attacking the Detroit offense all that much lately. In the last two weeks they’ve actually been a top 10 offense with a 113 wRC+ rating and have shown a decent amount of pop with a .195 team ISO. But the low DFS salaries give Plesac his major appeal and Cleveland is currently the heaviest favorite of the day (-230). A low salary pitcher who can go six or seven innings on a heavily favored team is simply a combination that you won’t run across all too often in DFS. Plesac’s last solid start also came against Detroit on June 23rd when he went seven innings on 97 pitches, holding the Tigers to five hits and one earned run while capturing a win and quality start. If he can land his fantasy output at or above 15 DKFP/30 FDFP, I’ll be perfectly content with that as I go about my merry way loading up on the big boy hitters.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Cleveland Indians vs. Ryan Carpenter (LHP, Detroit Tigers)

The Tigers have reluctantly recalled Carpenter back up from Triple-A for the spot start tonight and the Cleveland hitters should be licking their chops. Carpenter’s 8.36 ERA on the year is easily the worst mark among starters today and he’s boasting an awful 1.75 WHIP, 14% kRate, and is allowing at least a .415 wOBA and .258 ISO to both sides of the plate. The last time the Indians faced Carpenter, they rung him up for six runs across just three innings, so we could anticipate some higher usage from a below average Detroit bullpen today. Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, and Roberto Perez stand out as some go-to options here.

Washington Nationals vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

Wojciechowski has a couple of lackluster starts under his belt this season (9.2 IP, 7 ER, two HRs allowed) and I wouldn’t expect things to improve when he takes on the Nats today. Washington could likely get some extra at-bats against a poor Orioles bullpen staff if they get to Woj early. But, across his brief career, Wojciechowski has allowed a .324 AVG, .416 wOBA, 1.86 WHIP, and 1.81 HR/9 Rate to left-handed hitters, so I’d give the Nats lefties a slight bump over their righties. Juan Soto, Matt Adams, and Adam Eaton all make for solid targets. Soto will be my home run call for the day. 💣

Los Angeles Angels vs. Collin McHugh (RHP, Houston Astros)

On a full slate like today, along with Coors Field in play, you typically don’t have to go out of your way to get too contrarian. However, out among the often ignored West Coast games tonight, I could see the (potentially) Trout-less Angels offense going overlooked once again, despite the fact that they’ve been perhaps the hottest offense in baseball over the last two weeks (135 wRC+, ranks 1st). Sure, Trout has plenty to do with their production as of late but the Angels still strung together nine runs last night in his absence. It’s still unclear what the Astros starting pitcher situation will shake out to be, but for now it looks like Collin McHugh will get the nod. Though, he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in a single game since May 7th so you would expect a ton of action from the Houston relief pitchers. Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher, and Justin Upton are all very affordable bats who have been performing well and make for an intriguing low-owned ‘budget’ stack. Mike Trout could also very well return to the lineup tonight, and he is a prettyyyy good player as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Alex Dickerson (DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k) | OF | vs. RHP Peter Lambert

With the Giants offense rejuvenated, but also a bit shorthanded, I would imagine that Dickerson gets the start (likely) from the clean-up spot in the order today in this Coors Field showdown. Dickerson has had outstanding success lately. Over the last month, he is hitting .360 with a .498 wOBA and .400 ISO. You really have to feel for the Rockies pitchers sometimes -- especially the young guys, like tonight’s starter, 22-year-old Peter Lambert. But you also have to take advantage of a match-up when it’s this enticing. Lambert has a 9.17 ERA at home this season and is giving up a monstrous 56% Hard Contact Rate to LHBs (like Dickerson). Great chance for Dickerson to go yard tonight (along with about ten other guys in this game).

Yasiel Puig (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k) | OF | vs. RHP Alec Mills

Seriously, what is up with these Puig salaries? With the way he has been slugging, he is easily $500-$1,000 underpriced on both sites. That may make him a bit chalky today, but hell, I don’t know if I care. The man is absolutely demolishing right-handed pitching lately. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (64 plate appearances), he is hitting .414 with a 1.120 wOBA+ISO (.569 wOBA, .552 ISO), NINE home runs, 17 RBI, and a trio of stolen bases. Put those numbers up against anyone else’s equivalent recent sample size in the league and you won’t find one hitter who is outperforming him. As for the pitching match-up, Alec Mills is making his 2019 MLB debut, in Wrigley Field no less, and his minor league numbers from this season don’t really peg him as someone to fear (80 IP, 4.73 ERA, 5.38 xFIP, .272 opponent average, 1.69 HR/9, 15.5% HR/FB). Fire up Yasiel.

Robel Garcia (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k) | 2B | vs. RHP Anthony DeSclafani

Robel Garcia and Addison Russell have been alternating starts at second base, so I would think that Garcia will get the nod today after getting yesterday off. Garcia has gotten his rookie campaign off to a fast and productive start, going 6-for-18 with two homers, a triple, and two doubles. He’s a switch hitter who will bat lefty tonight when he faces off against the righty Anthony DeSclafani. This season, DeSclafani has shown extreme splits and has given up a ton of production to left-handed hitters: .313 AVG, .413 wOBA, .285 ISO, 2.49 HR/9, and 49.3% Hard Contact. As is often the case, second base is a solid position to pay down for, and Robel Garcia certainly draws my interest as a value play with great upside.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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