Top MLB DFS Plays 7/16 | Back in Action! ⚾

July 16, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Welcome back! I hope everyone enjoyed the All-Star Break and a little time off from the grind that is MLB DFS. It’s a fun grind, but a grind nonetheless! Now it’s time to recalibrate and get set for the second half of the season. It’s all gas, no brakes all the way to October!

Friday will bring us a huge 13-game slate to work with. Unfortunately, following the postponement of last night’s Red Sox/Yankees game strictly due to COVID-19 reasons, it would seem that we’ll have to start worrying about coronavirus-related postponements once again for the first time since the very early portion of the season. Let’s just hope that things don’t get too out of hand and the league can manage to keep incidents like the one we saw yesterday to a very isolated level (I won’t hold my breath). We’ll also have several weather issues to monitor today, so let’s hop right to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

PLENTY of pesky situations to keep track of today, ranging anywhere from slightly to significantly concerning. The Twins/Tigers doubleheader has already been washed out and postponed which only impacted the DK slate. The following three games carry the most weather risk today: NYM @ PIT, TEX @ TOR, and MIL @ CIN. For now, I won’t be ruling any specific teams or players out of consideration.

🚨NYM @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U):🚨 This is a medium-risk game with rain chances hovering around 20-25% throughout the game. Odds are they can get this game played but the chance of an in-game delay will make starting pitchers riskier.

SD @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Solid hitting conditions with humid 90 degree temps throughout the game and light winds blowing out.

BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Similar to the Washington forecast. It’ll be humid with temps near 90 and light winds blowing out. Decent bump to bats. (Remember to monitor the COVID-related impacts of this game, but expectations are that they’ll play however the Yankees will be without some guys.)

🚨TEX @ TOR (7:07 ET, 9.5 O/U):🚨 It’s doubtful they’ll avoid rain here. Rain starts off light around the first pitch and gets a bit heavier later in the game. It’ll be lingering into the night as well, so a delay could lead to an outright postponement. So, if they play, they’ll have to play wet.

🚨MIL @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9 O/U):🚨 More risk in Cincy with scattered thunderstorms making a delay a likely possibility. A postponement can’t be ruled out either.

TB @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance that a pop-up storm causes a delay.

HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Rain should be gone by the first pitch. Winds blowing out to RF at 10 mph.

SF @ STL (8:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Could see some rainstorms hanging around early so there’s a chance of a late start. Should be all clear after that.

LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Possibility of a sprinkle or brief period of light rain, but not a major concern. It’ll be 90 degrees in Coors Field at first pitch with light winds blowing out to center at times. The obvious advantage to the bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Bassitt (RHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CLE

Quickly, I’d like to mention that, as long as it seems like they’ll be okay playing through some rain, Robbie Ray ($9.3k/$9.8k) would be a great option against Texas and would have some 10+ K upside. Also, I would have no issues spending all the way up for the ultra consistent Kevin Gausman ($10.3k/$10.6k) versus a bad Cardinals offense either.

Bassitt has shown for the vast majority of the season that he will rarely burn you when given a solid match-up. For the most part, his floor will be around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP and his upside is firmly in the 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP range. He isn’t the most prolific strikeout pitcher with a 24.4% kRate and 9.9% SwStr% on the year. But he doesn’t put too many guys on base (1.05 WHIP) and doesn’t give up much hard contact (33.1%). Cleveland has a very average offense and they’ve been particularly bad against RHPs on the road in recent weeks, producing a putrid 64 wRC+ over the last month (4th lowest) while striking out 25.3% of the time. Bassitt’s numbers improve when pitching at home as well in the ultra pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum and I would view him as a reliable option to roll with today.

Note: There does seem to be some uncertainty on whether Oakland’s starter will be Bassitt or Sean Manaea, so just keep an eye out on the confirmed lineup once it is released. If Manaea is the guy, I’d be alright with rolling him out, too.

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TB

Morton draws a match-up with a Rays team that can certainly be dangerous on offense. However, they also provide plenty of strikeouts to opposing pitchers. Versus RHPs this season, they hold a 26.6% kRate (3rd highest) and only two of their nine hitters in the confirmed lineups have a <26% kRate against righties this year. Morton has been excellent over his last five games, amassing a 31% kRate, 0.70 WHIP, and 1.91 ERA while averaging 26.7 DKFP/45.8 FDFP per game. He won’t be the safest option, but he does bring 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP upside to the table today out of the mid-salary range.

Julio Urias (LHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.9k | @ COL

Even at an affordable $7,800 price tag, Urias is already a contrarian option on DK since he’ll be pitching in Coors Field… so rostering him at $8,900 on FanDuel would be going down an ultra contrarian path. Hardly anyone is going to be on him tonight, strictly due to the fear of Coors Field. However, Urias did already pitch a great game at Coors in his first start of this season when he needed just 79 pitches to throw seven complete innings, allowing three hits, one run, six strikeouts, and earned a win/QS -- good for 27 DKFP/46 FDFP. As bad as the Rockies offense is, they actually don’t strike out all too often against lefties (21.5% kRate this season). But if you’re taking the gamble on Urias, you’re more so counting on Colorado to struggle with making contact at the plate, as they have in many games this season, even at home. And if Urias can get five to seven Ks along the way, even better. The Dodgers are also one of the heaviest favorites of the day with -196 odds. If this game were being played at Dodger Stadium, Urias would probably be 30+% owned. Today, he’ll be <5%.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  The Los Angeles Dodgers will be the obvious go-to stack today at Coors. I would also look for the Toronto Blue Jays to be an attractive option as long as they plan to play through the rain. Though, these days, the big Blue Jay bats are often more expensive than the best Coors Field bats, so perhaps they'll go under-owned.

San Diego Padres vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Fedde was trending down quickly prior to the All-Star Break and there is no reason to assume that he’ll right the ship tonight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Washington and he’s facing a Padres team that just plated six runs on eight hits against him just ten days ago. The Padres have averaged the 6th most runs per game on the road this season and will find themselves in a great spot today against Fedde and a mediocre Nats bullpen.

Kansas City Royals vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

To say Akin has had a rough time over the last month would be a bit of an understatement. In his last six starts, he has racked up a 10.66 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, .361 opp AVG, and .449 opp wOBA. Now, it hasn’t all been Akin’s fault considering he does have a 4.89 xFIP in that span (still bad, but not “10.66 ERA” bad) and he’s fallen victim to an absurdly high .421 BABIP. But, at the end of the day, he just isn’t a good MLB starting pitcher and Kansas City should take advantage. The Royals haven’t necessarily been a great offense themselves, but they have been a bit better against lefties than righties this season. The Baltimore bullpen has also posted a very poor 5.02 xFIP and 1.55 WHIP over the last month -- both are the 4th highest (worst) figures in the league during that span.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

Heaney is going to be a popular pitching option tonight, specifically as an SP2 on DraftKings. While he does have great strikeout stuff, he’s also about as volatile as it gets when it comes to contact allowed. Seattle does strike out a good bit, but they’ve also been posting better offensive numbers in the last month or so. They also get a significant park upgrade going from their home field of T-Mobile Park (worst hitter-friendly park this season) to Angel Stadium (#4 most hitter-friendly park). In 92 plate appearances against Heaney, the current Mariners roster is hitting .302 with a .415 wOBA and a not-so-high 23.9% kRate. I could see a sneaky three or four-man Seattle stack working out well this evening.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

SS Javy Baez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

C Sean Murphy | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

C Luis Torrens | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Gavin Lux | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $2.9, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

2B/SS Alcides Escobar | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

2B/3B/OF Dylan Moore | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Sean Murphy | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

I’m going with a bit of a wild card today with Murphy. The simple reason behind picking Murphy is the fact that Eli Morgan has shown some awful reverse splits in his rookie campaign. He’s faced 60 RHBs and has allowed six home runs (4.26 HR/9) alongside a .364 AVG, .436 ISO, .489 wOBA, 43.2% Hard%, and 55.8% Fly Ball Rate. Murphy went into the All-Star Break with home runs in back-to-back games and has hit five homers off of RHPs in his last 20 games (57 plate appearances). He’s been solid against RHPs all season, so let’s see if Eli Morgan continues to get rocked in righty-on-righty situations.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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