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- Top MLB DFS Plays 7/15 | A Monday Filled with Risk/Reward Decisions
Top MLB DFS Plays 7/15 | A Monday Filled with Risk/Reward Decisions
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We have ten games on the menu this evening to help cure you of the Monday blues. These games include some pretty decent pitching options, plenty of strong spots for offenses, and the second game of a Coors Field doubleheader is also in play -- should be an interesting night. There isnāt too much straightforwardness in hardly any of todayās match-ups, so expect the unexpected. Attacking this slate with a contrarian mindset may end up paying off handsomely if you can accept some risky approaches. Letās grease the wheels and get rolling!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ā
PIT @ STL: This is the lone spot today that could bring significant trouble. The remnants of (now) Tropical Storm Barry could affect the St. Louis area with plenty of rain and thunderstorms leading up to, and possibly during, this game. Currently, the delay risk seems much more likely than an outright postponement but I wouldnāt be surprised if the outlook worsens later in the day. Weāll just have to wait and see. For now, I would be cautious about using the starting pitchers in this match-up but keep an eye on this situation closer to first pitch.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Lucas Giolito | RHP | DK: $11.2k, FD: $9.1k | CWS @ KC
To say Giolito has dominated the Royals this season would be a bit of an understatement. In four starts against them (25 IP), Giolito has posted a 1.80 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.56 WHIP, and 37.8% kRate while holding Kansas City hitters to a .108 AVG and .157 wOBA. In three of those four starts, he tallied at least 29 DKFP/48 FDFP and he very likely could have hit that threshold in all four games if he didnāt have to get pulled after 2.2 innings in the April 17th match-up due to a hamstring issue. There are still plenty of games to be played post All-Star Break, but Giolito is making a strong case as perhaps the most improved pitcher of 2019. He has a 30% kRate against both sides of the plate this season and he has also been a more efficient pitcher on the road this year by most meaningful metrics, resulting in +8.2 DKFP per game. Over the last month against RHPs, the Royals rank in the bottom half of the league in batting average, wOBA, ISO, OBP, and wRC+ so donāt be surprised if Giolito continues his success against them this evening. The FanDuel price is especially appealing.
James Paxton | LHP | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | NYY vs. TB
On one hand, the Rays offense has looked pretty scary after averaging 8.25 runs/game over their last four. On the other hand, that was during a four game series when they saw a ton of innings against an awful Orioles bullpen. Against lefties over the last 30 days, the Rays offense ranks inside the bottom ten in batting average, wOBA, OBP, and wRC+. Paxtonās last start came against the Rays when he struck out 11 hitters across six innings, allowing only two earned runs. I understand the reasoning behind some people not being too keen on rolling out a pitcher who just faced an opposing offense very recently, but Paxton is one of the only guys on this slate with legitimate double-digit strikeout upside. His 28.9% kRate ranks third on the slate (among traditional starters). Paxton has allowed at least seven hits in five of his last six starts, so youāll probably have to live with the downside there if you play on DraftKings, which of course negates points for hits allowed. Heāll also have to contend with a stout counterpart in Blake Snell but the Yankees are still solid -144 home favorites so there is plenty of room for Paxton to earn a win and quality start bonus (on FanDuel).
Daniel Norris | LHP | DK: $4.2k, FD: $6k | DET @ CLE
This is pretty much a āDraftKings onlyā SP2 punt play. Even for a low-quality, low-upside starter like Norris, $4,200 is just too cheap of a price tag, especially when you consider that he has pitched at least five innings in all 15 starts this year and was also able to tally eight strikeouts against the Indians in their June 23rd meeting (which was also played in Cleveland). This isnāt a statistically driven pickā¦ like, at all -- but you simply donāt see a starting pitcher, who is pretty much guaranteed five innings of work, for this sort of DraftKings salary very often. If youāre willing to take on the inherited risk with rostering Norris, you can go absolutely wild on big bats by throwing him in as an SP2. Iād be completely satisfied with any result for Norris that nets 12+ DKFP, which he does accomplish more often than not.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, thereās no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Coors Field Notice: With a huge implied total of 13 runs in Colorado today (game two), you can safely assume that the Rockies (7.0 implied runs) and Giants (6.0 implied runs) are two of the best teams to stack up. Neither team will be highlighted in this section.
Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Josh James/LHP Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)
The Angels are perhaps the hottest offense in the league right now, boasting a 136 wRC+ in the last two weeks (ranks 1st in MLB) alongside a .237 ISO (2nd). Theyāll face a Houston opener/long reliever tandem of pitchers, with Framber Valdez expected to get the majority of work. Itās a small sample size, but in 18.1 innings pitched on the road, Valdez has an awful 6.87 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, and 1.91 WHIP while throwing just 18.2% strikeouts. The Angels offense may be taking a major hit if Mike Trout doesnāt suit up after suffering a calf injury yesterday. Even if Trout sits this one out, you still have strong options to choose from with guys like Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton, and David Fletcher leading the way.
Los Angeles Dodgers (LHBs) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (Philadelphia Phillies)
You better believe Iām throwing some attention in the direction of these lefty Dodger bats today. Eflin gives up a ton of power to LHBs, allowing a .275 ISO on 45.6% Hard Contact and a 43.6% Fly Ball Rate resulting in 2.28 HR/9. Eflin is also just struggling in general lately with a 9.64 ERA, .498 wOBA, and six homers allowed on 56.1% Hard Contact across his last three starts. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Alex Verdugo are all in play for me. Muncy will be my home run call for this slate. š£
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Rick Porcello (Boston Red Sox)
If you want to get a contrarian stack out there, Iām expecting Porcello to potentially be a pretty popular value pitcher that people will look to roll out. However, heās been awful lately after putting up a 12.75 ERA, .461 wOBA, and 2.33 WHIP across his last three starts while throwing just 11.1% strikeouts. One of those starts was against Toronto, who hung five earned runs against him on eight hits and four walks during his six innings of work. The Red Sox bullpen was also forced to throw 148 pitches in last nightās 12-inning game against the Dodgers, so expect some possibly weary relievers once Porcello is retired. Freddy Galvis, Danny Jansen, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would be some Toronto bats that I would consider.
One-Off Hitters
Here Iāll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a āone-offā piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Yoan Moncada (DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k) | 3B | vs. RHP Jakob Junis
Moncada has enjoyed some strong success in his young career when facing off against Junis. In 16 plate appearances against the right-hander, he is batting .500 with a pair of homers and a 1.044 wOBA+ISO (.615 wOBA, .429 ISO). Moncada is a switch hitter but he is much more dangerous when batting lefty against RHPs. Heās also hitting .350 over the last month and he has been stout in 12 games against Kansas City this year, batting .388 with a .449 wOBA, .286 ISO, and 188 wRC+ with four home runs. If Junis is set to be popular tonight, you can gain some nice leverage by rolling out a guy like Moncada, who is capable of doing a ton of damage in just a couple of at-bats against him.
Austin Slater (DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k) | OF | vs. Colorado Rockies
I bet many would be surprised to learn that the Giants rank 1st in baseball over the last two weeks with a .241 team ISO and a league-leading 18 home runs in that span. One of the guys that is leading the way in providing the pop for San Francisco is 26-year-old Austin Slater. Itās just an eight game, 25 plate appearance sample size, but Slater is boasting an absurd .566 wOBA and .609 ISO since being called up from triple-A. There are a few question marks surrounding this play. First off, the starter for the Rockies is still to be determined at the time of this writing -- but, this is Coors Field and whoever Colorado rolls out isnāt going to be one of their top arms anyhow. Slater has also been battling an illness (fever) but he was well enough to sub in for some at-bats yesterday when Evan Longoria began dealing with a foot injury. The thinking is that either Slater or Longoria *should* be able to play in game two. Longoria has been extremely dominant lately as well, so Iād be comfortable rolling out whoever gets the nod between these two guys.
Note: Just saw Slater was confirmed in the original game one starting lineup only to be scratched minutes later. Longoria is out as well. So, kind of concerning here but perhaps they're just giving Slater a few more hours to rest up (and also not force him into playing in 90 degree midday temperatures). We'll see how this goes.
Brandon Dixon (DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k) | 1B/OF | vs. RHP Adam Plutko
Itās all about getting some leverage today and Plutko may be another popular spend-down option that people deploy, given the beneficial match-up against a bad Tigers offense. However, Plutko has shown some poor reverse splits in the power department this season by allowing a .282 ISO, 40.7% Hard Contact, and seven home runs to right-handed hitters in just 17.2 innings, resulting in a 3.57 HR/9 Rate. Dixon is a RHB who has some slight reverse split tendencies, with a batting average that is nine points higher and an ISO that is 20 points higher against righty pitchers as opposed to his averages against southpaws. He should land either the the fourth or fifth spot in this order and could produce some solid value at his current salaries considering his solid play as of late.
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