Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

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Unfortunately, the problem with slates that are very deep in pitching like the one we had yesterday is they are typically followed by slates without much pitching to choose from. The top tier today isn’t bad (although Bieber and Berrios are facing each other which hurts their appeal on a site like FanDuel where the win is weighted more heavily). The mid and bottom tiers though are pretty rough with a lot of inconsistent options and little to no upside. It should make for a high scoring slate though. Currently five of the 18 teams in action on this slate have an implied total over five runs and four of the nine games have an O/U of over 10 runs (and we are missing Vegas info from a couple of games so that could increase). Stacks should be easy to come by, it’s just picking the right one that can be a challenge (as always). Quick note, Andrew Cashner was slated to be the starter for Baltimore today but he was traded to the Red Sox last night. As I write this, it’s not totally clear who will fill in for him or if the Orioles decide to have a bullpen day. Here are all the games with Vegas details:

Another great day weather wise. It’s still hot, everywhere, with most games in the upper 80s or low 90s but there are no threats or rain. There are a couple of games with some wind blowing out but nothing too drastic. I don’t see much advantages or disadvantages to gain today from Mother Nature. Thankfully, we don’t have to deal with a “hot day in Coors” game on this slate. You literally had no choice but to stack that game every way possible yesterday. It took some of the fun out of hunting for other places where there might be production.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Zack Greinke, ARI | DK: $10.3K, FD: $9.6K | RHP | @St. Louis

I’m going to make a case for Greinke here because talking about deGrom is too easy. He’s clearly the best option on the board against the league worst Miami Marlins. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched. But what if Miami does what they often do and show up against the best pitchers? It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. For those of you who have played MLB DFS for any length of time, you've no doubt been burned by the Marlins before. They are essentially Max Scherzer’s kryptonite. They also pounded deGrom the last time he faced them on May 17th. He allowed nine hits and seven runs (six earned) with just three strikeouts in five innings of work while taking the loss. Does that mean that’s what will happen again this time? No, of course not. He also completely dominated Miami earlier this year with a 14 strikeout performance. I’m just saying this is baseball and in the words of our good friend @ZeroInDenver, what you expect to happen usually doesn't. I want to stress that I'm not suggesting Greinke is a better play over deGrom. I'm simply saying, from a tournament viewpoint, deGrom will clearly be chalk today so give yourself some exposure to non deGrom lineups in case Miami decides to play spoiler as they've done in the past. Greinke’s numbers this season are terrific with a 3.84 SIERA, 0.92 WHIP, 23% strikeouts, and just 3.3% walks. He’s allowing only a .237 wOBA to lefties and a .270 wOBA to righties. The Cardinals, despite a lineup full of recognizable names, are fighting for their lives right now in a tightly contested NL Central dropping one game below .500 at 44-45. They are struggling with right-handed pitching, ranking just 23rd in baseball, with a .304 wOBA and .148 ISO and they strikeout 22.8% of the time. While they are going in the wrong direction, Greinke has been on fire recently, allowing no runs in four of his last six appearances. He’s going to go significantly less owned than deGrom but he has the ability to match him if you want to play a little game theory here in tournaments.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY | DK: $8.8K, FD: $8.1K | RHP | vs. Toronto

I’m not overly impressed with Tanaka this season and I was a bit surprised he was selected as the replacement for Marcus Stroman in the All-Star game. But with limited options in the mid-tier today and a favorable match up against the Blue Jays, it’s hard to argue with choosing him on this slate. His 3.86 ERA is paired with a 4.35 SIERA which suggests some regression is incoming. Against right-handed hitting, he has a 1.03 WHIP and is only allowing a .265 wOBA BUT he’s giving up 44% hard contact and the BABIP against him is an unsustainable .258. The right-handed bats are going to start getting to him sooner rather than later. His numbers against lefties aren’t so hot either with a 4.35 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, only 17.4% strikeouts, and allowing a .345 wOBA. Now that I’ve completely convinced you that you should pay his salary today, let’s actually talk about some good news. First, he’s the largest favorite on the board at -200. Toronto is 26th in baseball against right-handed pitching with a .297 wOBA, .165 ISO, and 24.7% strikeout rate. Sorry Vlad Jr, you were awesome in the Home Run Derby, but until you start doing that in a game environment you and your teammates are just not a match up we need to avoid. The upside for Tanaka is a bit limited with his lower strikeout rate this season compared to years past but the floor is pretty strong in this spot. I’d much rather have Tanaka over a similarly priced Anibal Sanchez against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park or Marcus Stroman, on the other side of this game, against this ridiculous Yankees lineup in Yankee Stadium.

Jose Quintana, CHC | DK: $7.3K, FD: $8K | LHP | vs. Pittsburgh

Inconsistency is the theme of today’s slate. Quintana has been a bit of a roller coaster lately which makes him difficult to trust but then again we are more or less throwing darts down in the lower pricing tier today. His 4.74 SIERA is not ideal and it comes with a slightly below average 19.6% strikeout rate and 40.1% hard contact allowed. What’s standing out to me about Quintana in this spot is two-fold. First, he’s been better at home this season than away from Wrigley. On the road he has a 4.37 xFIP and a 1.42 WHIP while allowing a .328 wOBA and a massive 48.5% hard contact rate. At home he has a 4.33 xFIP and a 1.27 WHIP while only allowing a .297 wOBA and a drastically lower 30.8% hard contact rate. Secondly, the Pirates are bad against left-handed pitching and Quintana has been very successful against them this season. In two starts, he’s 2-0 including his best start of the season on April 11th where he threw seven shutout innings with just one walk and eleven strikeouts. Much more recently, on July 4th, he went seven innings allowing three earned runs with one walk and striking out six. Pittsburgh is awful against left-handed pitching this season. They rank 29th in the league ahead of only the Marlins. They have a .286 wOBA, .138 ISO, and a .676 OPS. They strikeout 23.4% of the time and only walk a paltry 4.6% of the time. We don’t have Vegas info yet because this game is in Wrigley and we need to give the wind time to be accurately forecast but I expect Quintana and the Cubs to be comfortable favorites here.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Washington Nationals vs. Jake Arrieta, PHI

Pre-season hype and World Series aspirations have quickly changed to fear and desperation as the Phillies find themselves just three games above .500 and 7.5 games back of the Braves in the National League East. They are so desperate that they will continue to let Jake Arrieta pitch despite an X-Ray confirming he has a bone spur in his pitching elbow. He has a 7.71 ERA over his last three starts and now we know why he's been struggling so much, but sure, let’s let him keep pitching through his injury anyway. With the public knowledge of the injury, I really don’t see why we wouldn’t attack him with bats every chance we get from now on. Rendon (only 12.7% strikeouts, a .970 OPS, .396 wOBA, and .296 ISO) is one of my favorite bats on this slate. Turner (.354 wOBA, .226 ISO), Soto (.394 wOBA, .219 ISO), and Kendrick (.369 wOBA, and .225 ISO) all have a solid floor/ceiling against right-handed pitching. Some other upside options with lower floors would be Robles (.186 ISO), Suzuki (.236 ISO), Zimmerman (.203 ISO), and Matt Adams (.265 ISO).

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Beede, SFG

An absolutely awful match up and park shift for Beede here, which makes Milwaukee arguably my favorite stack on the board. Beede is just plain bad against lefties. He can get away with it in the left-handed power killing Oracle Park when he’s at home. But on the road, in Miller Park, against all the left-handed power in this Brewers lineup? No chance. Beede owns a 5.79 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and almost as many walks (14.6%) as strikeouts (16.9%) against left-handed hitters. He allows 45.9% hard contact and a massive .368 wOBA and all that is despite his BABIP actually being a below average .281 which means these numbers should actually get worse over a larger sample. Christian Yelich is the top hitter on the slate today (he normally is anyway) with his 1.231 OPS, .484 wOBA, .402 ISO, and 55.4% hard contact rate. Moustakas (.360 wOBA, .280 ISO, 45.6% hard contact), Grandal (.371 wOBA, .260 ISO, 49.7% hard contact) and Thames (.366 wOBA, .265 ISO, and 46.4% hard contact) all smash right-handed pitching. Give me some Ben Gamel in there as well. His numbers aren’t great but Beede is bad and Gamel does have a 43.9% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. You definitely don’t need to shy away from right-handed bats like Cain, Hiura or Braun either as Beede isn’t great against right-handed hitters either. I just wanted to really emphasize the lefties here. Milwaukee has an implied total approaching six runs.

Kansas City Royals vs. Jordan Zimmermann, DET

It’s not often we find a game to stack the Royals but I’d stack the Triple-A affiliate of most teams if they were facing Jordan Zimmermann. He’s now 0-6 on the season with a 6.29 ERA (5.34 SIERA) and a 1.56 WHIP. He strikes out just 15.1% of batters and allows 38.8% hard contact. He’s particularly brutal against left-handed hitting with a 5.71 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, 10.3% walks, and a ridiculous .403 wOBA allowed. There’s not a ton to love in this Kansas City lineup but this is all about the match up here. Mondesi has a .324 wOBA and .198 ISO against right-handed pitching. Merrifield lacks power but has a solid .363 wOBA. Hunter Dozier (.957 OPS, .392 wOBA, .294 ISO) and Jorge Soler (.347 wOBA, .286 ISO) are far and away the best options in this lineup. Alex Gordon is also on the radar with a .346 wOBA and .190 ISO against righties. The Royals have a 5.4 implied team total which tells you everything you need to know. The lineup alone will keep others way despite this being the perfect spot to take a chance on them.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Keston Hiura, MIL | DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.1K | 2B | vs. Tyler Beede, SF

I mentioned in the Brewers stack section you shouldn’t avoid the right-handed bats either but I didn’t go into a bunch of detail because I wanted to save Hiura for this section. Since being called up to take the spot of Travis Shaw, Hiura has five double-digit fantasy games in 12 starts. He has a .369 wOBA and .248 ISO with eight home runs, 14 runs scored, and 15 RBI in 120 plate appearances. He’s even flashed some speed with four stolen bases. Beede has a 4.82 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, a more respectable 23.9% strikeout rate, but he still walks 12.8% of right-handed hitters. At this pace, Hiura’s price shouldn’t stay this cheap much longer.

Alex Dickerson, SF | DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.2K | OF | vs. Jhoulys Chacin, MIL

I’ll start this off by saying it’s 50/50 whether he makes the lineup today or not. He left the game on Friday early with back stiffness and sat out last night as well. Hopefully he’s well enough to get into the game today because he’s popping on my stat sheet. He’s been nothing short of terrific since joining the Giants with a .340/.421/.740 slash line including four home runs and 15 RBI in 17 games. During that span he has an absurd 55.6% hard contact rate and 99.7 mph average exit velocity. He gets an ideal match up with Chacin today who is someone who infamously struggles with left-handed hitters. He has a pathetic 11.2% strikeout rate and he walks 11.8% of lefties. When a pitcher walks more people than he strikes out you tend to want to be sure you have some hitters up against him as it will lead to easy fantasy points. Side note, this is a great park shift for the Giants offense as Oracle Park is terrible for left-handed power and Miller Park is great.

Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.4K | OF | vs. Marcus Stroman, TOR

It’s not a massive sample, but Judge has owned Stroman in the past enough that I felt it was worth bringing up here. In 19 plate appearances, he has a ridiculous 1.416 wOBA+ISO (.666 wOBA, .750 ISO) including four home runs and six RBI. This all equals out to 4.5 FP/PA. Those stats alone, because they are based on only 19 plate appearances, are not enough. But we already know what kind of hitter Judge is, so it doesn’t take much for us to be convinced. Over his last 150 starts against right-handed pitching, he owns a .623 wOBA+ISO and a 2.11 FP/PA. He’s also been knocking the cover off the ball recently with a 63.6% hard contact rate and 99.1 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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