Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

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Finally, the longest few days of the year, when all of us have do to regular activities like our actual jobs or force ourselves to watch non-sports related television because there are no live sports on, are now over. We get the shakes, breakout in cold sweats, and the night terrors are relentless. Four whole days without DFS? I guess I could spend time with my family? Thankfully, we are past it now, and the second half of the baseball season is in full swing. We’ve got a solid 11 game slate on our hands to dig into tonight. This slate truly has it all. At one end of the spectrum, pitching is very deep today, with both sites having six options in the five figure range. At the opposite end of the spectrum, we also have a game in Coors tonight with a ridiculous O/U currently set at 14 runs! I can’t remember if I’ve ever seen a baseball game with a total that high. This should be a really fun slate with plenty of good pitcher performances and some fireworks on offense, so let’s not waste any more time. Here are all the Vegas lines:

Regarding the weather today, it’s hot out there. Of the 11 games in action tonight, five of them are forecast to be over ninety degrees at first pitch. Colorado is actually forecast to be the hottest of those games at 93 degrees with the winds blowing out at 11 mph, as if the ball needed any help carrying in that stadium. That 14 O/U might be conservative. No rain in the forecasts at all today. By the way, if any of you are in the path of Hurricane Barry this weekend, stay safe.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Let’s switch things up a little bit for today’s article. We have so many great pitchers to choose from. Rather than just follow the normal format, I thought it might help to do a little "blind" side by side comparison to see if we can uncover any information that might help us decide between all the top tier arms. I’m going to take the top seven (I’ll include Mike Minor since his salary is very close to the five-figure mark) and take their names and salaries temporarily out of the equation. Let’s just look at the numbers and match-ups and see if the rankings we come up with are different from how their salaries are lined up. We are now past the halfway point of the season, and all of these players have over 100 innings in the books. So unless otherwise stated, I will only be referring to 2019 data from here on out.

First, let's take a look at some data without any splits:

Pitcher #5 is standing out. He has the lowest ERA on the board and a higher, but very solid, 3.44 SIERA. He has the lowest WHIP and a strikeout rate over 31%. His batted ball profile is outstanding with over 50% groundballs, he’s only allowing .72 HR/9 and he has the highest WAR of anyone on the slate. Pitcher #4 is grabbing my attention as well. His ERA is the worst but he’s clearly had some bad luck as his 3.03 SIERA (lowest), 1.07 WHIP (second lowest), 34.5% strikeouts (highest), 14.2% swinging strikes (highest) and 33.5% hard contact allowed (lowest) all paint a totally different picture. I have concerns about Pitcher #2 with his SIERA nearly two full runs higher than the ERA and the worst strikeout rate in the group. Current rankings: #4, #5, #3, #1, #2, #6, and #7.

Next, let's look at how they perform specifically against left-handed hitting:

Pitcher #1, with nearly 40% strikeouts against lefties and just a 1.02 WHIP is certainly interesting if he’s facing a lot of lefties today. Our theory about Pitcher #4 being unlucky is still holding true. He has a .364 BABIP despite only allowing 25% hard contact and having a respectable 3.30 xFIP. Pitcher #6 is getting smoked by lefties allowing a .341 wOBA and 41.2% hard contact rate despite only a .273 BABIP. If he’s going to see a significant number of lefties today, then he’s out. New Rankings: #4, #5, #3, #1, #2, #7, #6.

Let's look at the same stats but against right-handed hitters:

Pitcher #4 is running away with this. I’m really curious what the salary and match up look like. A 3.09 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 35.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters is phenomenal. Pitcher #5 is holding his own as well. He doesn’t have quite the strikeout upside as #4, but the run prevention numbers are outstanding and he’s only allowing a .217 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Pitcher #2’s strikeout rates are concerning for a player priced in this tier. Pitcher #6 and #7 are still very sketchy as the BABIP against them by right-handed hitters is low (meaning they’ve been lucky so far) and they are both giving up a lot of hard contact. No changes to the rankings after seeing this.

Okay, so at this point, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who we like and don’t like. Now it gets interesting as the opponent they are facing can change a lot. Let’s have a look at how the lineup they are up against today is performing against the pitcher’s handedness:

So long #6 and #2. It was fun while it lasted. Both of them were already on shaky ground. Pitcher #6 is facing a team with 122 home runs, a .228 ISO, and 42.2% hard contact rate. Pitcher #2 is facing a team with some incredible plate discipline, displayed by their 11.3% walk rate and only 17.5% strikeout rate plus power upside. I referenced in the previous section I had concerns about #2 because of their low strikeout upside in this price range. Now that I've seen their opponent has a strikeout rate under 18%? No thanks. Pitcher #4 is suddenly not as clear cut as I thought against an opponent with a 44.1% hard contact rate, .331 wOBA, and .192 ISO. Meanwhile, Pitcher #5 has a cake walk against a team with a .299 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and barely 30% hard contact. I’m sliding #5 into the top spot as he looks like the clear cut cash game option here. #4 has more upside for tournaments but it’s a much riskier match up. Pitcher #3 enters the conversation as well. He didn’t stand out quite as much from a numbers perspective but he has a great match up against a team with just a .670 OPS. New ranks: #5, #4, #3, #1, #7, #6, #2. Pitcher #5, #4, and #3 are well ahead of the rest.

Finally, let's introduce the salaries, Vegas lines, ballpark, and weather information to see if we need to make any last tweaks:

This doesn't change anything for me. All these guys are pitching in extreme heat, which is great for hitters and bad for them. So there's no advantage. Most of them are pitching in hitter's parks as well, so there's nothing we can use there. Pitcher #4 is a pretty heavy favorite, despite the difficult match up, so that bodes well for what we've been saying all along. Pitcher #5 does not have a line or an opposing team implied total yet, so there's no help there. I think we can safely conclude they will be a comfortable favorite given the data we've looked at. Pitcher #1 and Pitcher #6 are both in coin flips. Perhaps they are facing each other?

Drum roll please.....the winner is? Pitcher #5 otherwise known as Charlie Morton! The AL Cy Young candidate has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher on this slate and deserves to be at the top of the pricing. His numbers are outstanding and the match-up is equally good. There’s no better option today for safety and upside. The reason we don't have Vegas data is because this game is part of a doubleheader today. In tournaments, Chris Sale (Pitcher #4) feels like an excellent value as the fifth most expensive pitcher on DK and third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel but he ranks second on my list after this breakdown. His ceiling is unmatched and all his advanced stats suggest we will see nothing but “vintage” Chris Sale in the second half of the season. He does have a scary match up against the Dodgers but they are also much better against righties than lefties. Matt Boyd (Pitcher #3) comes in third for me and could be your "less sexy" but dangerous sleeper in tournaments today. He has a solid, if unspectacular, floor/ceiling combination and gets a nice match up against the Royals. He likely goes overlooked compared to some of these other names but I wouldn’t rule him out of being the top scoring pitcher at the end of the night. Patrick Corbin (Pitcher #1) is the wild card. He’s got plenty of upside and the match up isn’t terrible but it’s not great either. His floor is lower than most, making him a tougher sell as the second most expensive pitcher on both sites on this slate. He's fourth on my list. I’ll be passing on Bauer (#6), Nola (#7), and Minor (#2). Too much risk for my blood. All of them have upside and will be lower owned because of that risk so I don’t hate it in a larger field tournament. Bauer has the highest ceiling of this group and Nola has the highest floor given his match up, so depending on which you prefer, you can rank those accordingly (I'd go Bauer first). Minor would be in that conversation if not for his match up today. I'm all set with a lefty against the Astros in Globe Life Park on a hot July day. He's last in this group and given that he's also the cheapest, it makes sense.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors has a 14 O/U today. I'm not going to insult your intelligence and talk about those teams here. You already know they are far and away the top stacks on the board. Let's look at some other games:

Seattle Mariners vs. Matt Harvey, LAA (RHP)

I’m hoping the Seattle stack doesn’t get a lot of attention considering how poorly they’ve been playing. The Mariners sit at 39-55 and have won just two of their last ten games. Doesn’t sound super appealing for a stack now does it? Then we notice they are taking on Matt Harvey today. Yes, that Matt Harvey, the former ace for the Mets. Did you forget about him? I kind of did. Welp, he’s returning to the rotation today after being out with a bad back since the end of May. Prior to hitting the IL, Harvey had a 7.13 ERA (5.12 SIERA), 1.48 WHIP, and only 15.4% strikeouts. In his recent rehab starts in the minors he allowed 13 earned runs in just 10 innings. I don’t care how bad the Mariners are playing right now, I want exposure to them in this spot. Dan Vogelbach is one of my favorite hitters on this slate with his 1.014 OPS, .418 wOBA, and .322 ISO against right-handed pitching. Santana (.348 wOBA, 46.3% hard contact), Crawford (.363 wOBA, .229 ISO), Beckham (.256 ISO), and Narvaez (.361 wOBA) are all worth a look. These guys are high ceiling low floor options, as they all strikeout a ton.

Houston Astros vs. Mike Minor, TEX (LHP)

Minor is pitching great this season and even though he’s part of the top seven group of pitchers we broke down a little while ago, he’s at a clear disadvantage today which we discovered during that earlier deep dive. His SIERA (4.41) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA (2.54) and his BABIP (.270 to LHB and .263 to RHB) is not sustainable long term. Meanwhile, as we highlighted earlier, Houston is arguably the best offense in baseball against lefties with their very high walk rate, very low strikeout rate, and very high power. Yordan Alvarez smashed two more home runs last night. This kid is as real as it gets. I don’t care that it’s a lefty vs. lefty match up. He has a 1.135 OPS, .464 wOBA, and .350 ISO against lefties anyway. Altuve is one of the best in the league against lefties with a 1.099 OPS, .444 wOBA, and .353 ISO. Springer (.995 OPS, .411 wOBA, and .293 ISO) is also high on my list and Brantley (.368 wOBA) loses some power against lefties but is still on the radar. We’ll have to see if Alex Bregman gets back into the lineup tonight or not. He was held out last night and is being evaluated for a concussion so we’ll just have to wait. If he’s in, you’ll want to get him in your lineups. Houston is one of only a few teams (outside of Coors Field) with an implied total over five runs today.

Atlanta Braves vs. Joey Lucchesi, SD (LHP)

Lucchesi isn’t pitching poorly this season by any stretch but he’s also not someone we need to shy away from. His 4.20 SIERA is slightly higher than his 3.94 ERA. He has slightly above average strikeout abilities. His splits, however, between left and right-handed hitters are pretty drastic. He’s excellent against lefties with a 2.59 xFIP, 25.6% strikeout rate, 60.3% ground balls forced, and a 32.2% soft contact rate. But, against right-handed hitters, it swings wildly in the other direction. A 4.35 xFIP, 22.7% strikeouts, 38.3% fly balls, and only 12.5% soft contact. Give me Acuna Jr all day with his 1.054 OPS, .433 wOBA, and .301 ISO against lefties. Austin Riley, though a smaller sample, is smashing lefties so far with a ridiculous 1.278 OPS, .488 wOBA, .553 ISO, and 52.2% hard contact. Albies has a 1.081 OPS, .447 wOBA, and 253 ISO against left-handed pitching. Those guys round out my top three. You have to include Freddie Freeman, despite the lefty vs lefty, because he’s Freddie Freeman and he can hit anyone. He still has a .363 wOBA and .256 ISO against lefties. Swanson has a .372 wOBA and .217 ISO and is firmly in play. Keep your eye on Charlie Culberson. If he happens to sneak into the lineup he could be a cheap sleeper today. He has a .946 OPS, .388 wOBA, and .280 ISO against lefties this season.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Whit Merrifield, KC | DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K | 2B/OF | vs. Matt Boyd, DET

I still like Boyd quite a bit in this game but you could look at Merrifield as a cheap one off on this slate. I emphasize cheap because his price has fallen off a cliff over the past month. On DraftKings, he was as high as $5.4K only a few weeks ago and now he’s come all the way down to $4.2K. He hasn’t had any massive fantasy performances recently but he puts points on the board almost every single night. In fact, you have to go all the way back to June 19th to find the last game he put up a goose egg. That’s 18 straight games with at least some kind of fantasy production. He’s an excellent hitter against left-handed pitching with a .599 wOBA+ISO and 2.42 FP/PA. There’s also notable BvP here with 33 PA against Boyd. He has a .448 wOBA and .226 ISO in those appearances. He doesn’t have any home runs but he does have 5 stolen bases.

Jason Kipnis, CLE | DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K | 2B | vs. Jake Odorizzi, MIN

Kipnis is another player who finds a way to put up fantasy points on a nightly basis. He’s working on his own 18 game fantasy point streak and he’s also hit his way into batting in the cleanup spot more often than not these days. He owns a .565 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 games and a .790 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against a right-handed pitcher. That’s pretty good opportunity for a player that’s only $3.5K on DraftKings. He faces Jake Odorizzi, who really struggles with lefties, as shown by his 5.32 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 52.7% fly ball rate, and 44.6% hard contact allowed. Cleveland has the ability to go very left-handed heavy, so keep an eye on their lineup today. They are a sneaky stack.

Jake Lamb, ARI | DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.8K | 1B/3B | vs. Dakota Hudson, STL  

The question with Lamb is can he stay healthy? He’s proven in the past he can be a monster but he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field long enough for us to really see the end result. He’s been back only a couple of weeks from his most recent stint on the IL and he’s starting to heat up with two home runs in his last three games. He’s a low floor/high ceiling option right now that will help you chase some cheap upside while he’s still priced this far down. Dakota Hudson is brutal against lefties with his 5.97 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP and nearly just as many walks (13.9%) as strikeouts (16.9%).

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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