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- Top MLB DFS Plays 7/12 | Shake the Break, Baseball is Back! ⚾
Top MLB DFS Plays 7/12 | Shake the Break, Baseball is Back! ⚾
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Aaaaand... we... are... back! Maybe you were looking forward to the All-Star Break or perhaps you were already itching for some MLB DFS once this past Monday evening came around. Regardless, it’s never a bad idea the give the mind a few days off from the grind that is daily fantasy baseball. But hey, how great was that Home Run Derby? Pure entertainment! Great show! No complaints about the All-Star Game either (although having Joe Buck drone on in my ear about some sort of nonsense when I’m trying to focus on playing a baseball game sounds like my kind of personal Hell). From here on out, we are full steam ahead into October and the playoffs! So, let’s get set for some Friday MLB action to wrap up your workweek, shall we? There are 13 games on the evening docket so it’s time to dive back in head first!
Tonight’s MLB match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ⛅
I’m writing this early Friday morning, so things can always change, but it seems the almighty baseball gods are smiling upon us this evening. There are no glaring weather concerns across the board. We’re now in mid-July so nearly every outdoor environment, aside from the West Coast parks, will boast game time temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. As you’re likely aware of by now, hitters may grab more of an advantage in those conditions.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Caleb Smith (DK: $8.6k, FD: $8k) | LHP | MIA vs. NYM
I’m skipping over several other options when going into my highest priced pitcher that I’m going in-depth on today. Personally, bats are taking priority for me on this slate and while there are certainly some good arms at the top, my guy Caleb Smith stands out as a more affordable SP1 to target in lineups. He looked good in his first start off of the IL when he faced a very tough team on the road in the Atlanta Braves, ultimately amassing 19.9 DKFP/37 FDFP. The Mets are a strong team against lefties on the road (107 wRC+, ranks 5th) but Smith has been extremely dominant at home this year. When pitching in Marlins Park, he boasts a 1.84 ERA, 2.76 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP while allowing a .176 AVG and .228 wOBA. Also, in 29.1 home innings he has only given up two home runs (0.61 HR/9) as opposed to on the road, where he has allowed 13 HRs in 42.2 innings (2.74 HR/9). Assuming there is no further rust for him to shake off, we get legitimate 8-10 K upside with Smith at an enticing price on both sites tonight.
Yonny Chirinos (DK: $8.4k, FD: $6.8k) | RHP | TB @ BAL
Chirinos has been sneaky solid this season, whether playing in a starter’s role or as a part of the “long reliever” strategy -- which the Rays simply love deploying so much. However, I trust Chirinos more as an outright starter considering he has allowed over three earned runs just once this season in 12 starts. He has pitched two games against Baltimore this year (12.1 innings) and has held them to a combined three earned runs, .182 AVG, .228 wOBA, and 0.81 WHIP. Chirinos himself may not be the biggest strikeout guy (20.9% kRate) but the Orioles provide plenty of strikeout opportunities (24.4% kRate versus RHPs in the last 30 days). Chirinos and the Rays are also solid road favorites (-143). He stands out as a really solid value on FanDuel but, even on DraftKings, he is very playable. Solid floor, strong ceiling, coming in fresh on eight days of rest-- what’s not to like?
Felix Pena (DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.2k) | RHP | LAA vs. SEA
In GPPs, maybe even in cash on DraftKings as an SP2, I’m liking Pena as a pivot away from other guys like Duffy, Vargas, Bundy, and Anderson. Pena has been in the “long reliever” role for a while now this season but, in a way, it has benefited him because he can earn wins even if he pitches less than five innings (4-1 record in last seven appearances). He also brings strong strikeout upside to the table with his 25.2% kRate. Over the last month, the Mariners have been a slightly below average team on the road against RHPs (.314 wOBA, .174 ISO, 95 wRC+) and maintain a pretty high 24.4% kRate. At these prices, Pena could squeeze in five, maybe six, innings of work with five to eight strikeouts and return some solid value. The Angels are also strong -155 favorites tonight, so Pena could put himself in position to earn the win.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
New York Yankees vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Will the Yankees be chalky? Probably a few of these guys will, sure. But it’s a huge slate with Coors Field and Globe Life Park in play, among other nice spots for offenses. Sanchez has given up at least five earned runs in five of his last six starts. One of those starts came against the Yankees, in which he surrendered 7 ER, 9 H, 1 HR, on 104 pitches. The Blue Jays have shown they will be slow to pull Sanchez off the mound even if he gets tagged up, so why not go back to some of these Bronx Bombers? Aaron Sanchez has a slate-worst 1.75 WHIP and 5.57 SIERA this season. Against righties with RISP (runners in scoring position), the Yankees lead the league by a wide margin with a .301 AVG, .371 wOBA, and 132 wRC+. The entire order is essentially in play, but my preferred options would likely be DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Leake (RHP, Seattle Mariners)
Get Mike Leake on the road and good things often happen for the opposing offenses. On the road, Leake has a poor 5.08 ERA while allowing a .363 wOBA and 2.76 HR/9. He’s also allowing at least a .206 ISO to both sides of the plate. I really hate to put any oddly morbid spin on things in the interest of DFS, but this will also be the first game the Angels have played in Anaheim since the tragic July 1st passing of teammate Tyler Skaggs. Ultimately, baseball is a passionate game, and you have to imagine that emotions will be high as the Angels may be playing with a little extra conviction tonight with the home crowd at their back. Guys in the heart of this order will get most of my interest -- Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and the affordable Andrelton Simmons.
Detroit Tigers vs. Danny Duffy (LHP, Kansas City Royals)
I always shudder a bit when I recommend a Detroit stack but, as usual, this is purely a contrarian play and you don’t have to go to the extreme by rolling out a four or five-man Tiger stack. The early feeling is that Danny Duffy will be a bit chalky tonight as people search for a value pitcher to deploy, so why not go the other way in the reasonable chance that it pays off? Duffy has certainly been “fine” by all means this year, and had a strong game versus the Tigers in his last game against them. But his overall 4.28 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 18.9% kRate is nothing to write home about. Detroit also went into the All-Star Break playing pretty damn hot, averaging 6.2 runs/game over their previous six contests. Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, and Miggy Cabrera all played a vital role in the uptick in offensive production heading into the ASB and none of those guys will break the bank. I’m going to get real weird with it coming in off the break and take Nicholas Castellanos as my home run call of the night. 💣
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Rafael Devers (DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k) | 3B | vs. RHP Kenta Maeda
This is a spend-up play that could easily fall flat on its face but, from a pure hitting perspective, there may have been no player who had a better month heading into the ASB. Over the last month, Devers has batted for a stout .410 average with a .503 wOBA, .333 ISO, .452 OBP with seven homers, and 20 RBI. Maeda is not a guy I will often look to attack but nothing scares me about his 5.52 ERA on the road as he looks to take the mound in Fenway Park tonight. He’s also struggled quite a bit against LHBs on the road, allowing a .304 AVG, .382 wOBA, 1.77 WHIP, and 2.05 HR/9 -- by far his worst splits this year. Devers is, of course, a lefty hitter who can take advantage of this match-up and despite the high total in this game (11 O/U and basically a pick ‘em), I don’t foresee a lot of folks targeting many players here. So, give Devers a look alongside other quality bats in this game.
Whit Merrifield (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k) | 2B/OF | vs. LHP Daniel Norris
If you want a consistent one-off hitter at a mid-range price, then Merrifield would appear to be your man. He’s not the most flashy guy to roll out but he’s put up a fantasy scoring goose egg just once in the last month. In that time, Merrifield is batting .340 with a .398 wOBA and .202 ISO with four home runs, four stolen bases, and 15 RBI. Daniel Norris has yet to be named the confirmed starter at the time of this writing, but if he does indeed take the hill for the Tigers tonight, in 19 career at-bats against him, Merrifield is hitting .368 with three dingers and a 1.368 OPS. To be honest, it may not matter who the Tigers roll out. Merrifield has wreaked havoc on Detroit his entire career and this year is no different. In nine games (42 plate appearances) against Detroit in 2019, he has accrued a .308 average, .407 wOBA, .333 ISO, 8 XBH (2 HRs), three stolen bases, and a 156 wRC+. Can’t ask for much more than that from a mid-priced lead-off batter.
Merrifield's DKFD vs. Detroit this year. Solid.
Michael Brosseau (DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k) | 2B/3B | vs. RHP Dylan Bundy
If Brosseau is going to retain these cheap DFS prices while receiving a middle spot in the order, you might as well keep rolling him out. Sure, he has only played in eight games this year with 26 at-bats, but he is hitting .380 with a .449 wOBA and .269 ISO. He was hitting .317 with a .419 wOBA and .273 ISO in Triple-A (292 plate appearances) this year before being called up, so I don’t believe he is a fluke or “flash in the pan.” Bundy has been a neutral splits pitcher across his entire career but is showing more reverse splits this season by allowing more production to righties -- .368 wOBA, .301 ISO, and 2.47 HR/9. He’s also been marginally worse at home. I’ll keep taking the savings here at a ‘puntable’ position as long as Brosseau remains this affordable.
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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!
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