Top MLB DFS Plays 7/1 | More Menacing Weather to Track ⛈️

July 01, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! New month, new money... let's get it! A seven-game main slate comes our way this evening but guess what? … THERE ARE MORE WEATHER CONCERNS! It shouldn’t be quite as hectic as yesterday, primarily due to there simply being fewer games on this slate, but it’ll be another day to keep our eyes on the skies leading up to lock. Also, I’m not sure what was uglier on yesterday’s main slate -- the weather or all those pitching performances. Sheesh, nearly every one got tagged up out there. Unless you had Chris Bassitt, Dylan Cease, or Max Fried in your lineups, you were left disappointed with pretty much every other starter that took the mound. There definitely still seems to be a noticeable drop in, uh, “skill level” for many pitchers across the league following the sticky stuff crackdown. Of course, hot and humid summertime weather is not a pitcher’s friend either and this time of the season is when we would normally expect offensive production to go on the rise regardless. Hopefully, we can land on the right guys today. Also, keep your fingers crossed for the weather to cooperate so we can hopefully get all seven games in this evening!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The primary games to watch out for today are LAD @ WAS and STL @ COL. Behind those two, the NYM @ ATL and SD @ CIN games will carry at least some risk as well.

LAD @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): There will likely be no way they avoid rain here unless something drastic changes with the forecast. The good thing is it should be mostly lighter stuff, but they’ll either need to play a wet baseball game or just postpone. If they start in a delay, I’d be very hesitant rostering players here since it would seem conditions aren’t really going to change even if they wait later into the night. Also, Washington is infamous for making awful weather-related decisions, so just keep that in mind. Note: I believe this game carries enough risk to where I’ll forego mentioning any players from this match-up in today's newsletter.

MIL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): We may see a brief late start here as rain clears the area right around the first pitch. Good chance it starts on time as well and plays with zero issues.

SD @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered showers move out of the area around the first pitch. It’s likely they have no problems at all but we could also see a late start here as well.

HOU @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 15 mph winds blowing IN from left field.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7 O/U): Pop-up/scattered storms could be moving through the general Atlanta area this afternoon/evening. One may make its way over the ballpark and cause an in-game delay, which makes starting pitchers slightly more risky (which is particularly notable, since Jacob deGrom is taking the mound) but bats should be fine regardless. Currently, this weather doesn’t seem risky enough to fade either pitcher.

STL @ COL (8:20 ET, 11 O/U): Higher rain chances will come just before and soon after the scheduled first pitch but things clear up later in the evening. Moderate chance of a late start and can’t 100% rule out a PPD if rain lingers longer than expected.

SF @ ARI (9:40 ET, 9 O/U): The roof at Chase Field will be closed.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.6k | @ PIT

Welp, we have a trio of high-end pitching options to choose from today with Burnes, Jacob deGrom ($11.5k/$11.5k), and Framber Valdez ($9.8k/$10.2k). A strong case can be made for spending up on any one of those three guys, but Burnes will land in as the premium highlighted pitcher today. He’s rocking a massive 38.9% kRate on the season with an excellent 17.0% Swinging Strike Rate while allowing just a 28.4% HardHit%. His numbers are down as of late (‘sticky stuff’ fall out???) but he is still posting a very respectable 33.6% kRate over his last five starts, however, the 1.33 WHIP is not ideal. A positive here is his match-up with a Pittsburgh team who is coming off of a three-game series at Coors Field where they amassed a total of two runs. Two. Runs. In three games. At Coors. Pittsburgh doesn’t strike out a ton (22.5% kRate vs. RHPs) and they did score a couple runs behind eight hits against Burnes back on June 12th. Still, that is not going to sway me off of Burnes, especially at the $9,200 price tag on DK. The Brewers also check-in as the heaviest favorites of the day at -250. Burnes isn’t exactly going to fly under the radar but considering Jacob deGrom hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in a game in over two months, there’s a decent chance Burnes outscores deGOAT tonight (who does also draw a tougher match-up against ATL). Also, after so many pitchers bombed yesterday, I’m expecting a large portion of DraftKings players to go the “double ace” route and play two of either deGrom, Valdez, or Burnes. No issues with that approach in cash games but perhaps look to go a bit more contrarian in GPPs.

Adam Wainwright (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.8k | @ COL

Feeling extra frisky? Why not throw Waino some consideration as he takes on the Rockies at Coors Field? The obvious risk is obvious. Wainwright is taking the mound in the most notorious hitter’s park in Major League Baseball. But he’s been super sharp as of late and it isn’t like the Rockies are consistently good at home either, especially against solid opposing starting pitchers. Over his last four starts (26.0 IP), Wainwright has an excellent 2.08 ERA, 2.38 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, .223 opp wOBA, and a 31.0% kRate. The Rockies rank 28th in the league with an 87 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home and unless they really get to Wainwright early, he’s a near lock to throw upwards of 100+ pitches with a chance at 7.0+ innings of work. Also, for what it’s worth, in six career games at Coors Field (36.2 IP), Wainwright has posted a 2.21 ERA.

Ian Anderson (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. NYM

With deGrom as his counterpart, you’re getting a pretty decent discount on Anderson here, particularly on DraftKings at his $7,100 price tag. He’ll land firmly in SP2 territory as he takes on a Mets team who have scored two runs or fewer in ten of their last 16 games (though, in their defense, I believe there were at least two 7-inning games in there). In that span, going back to June 17th, the Mets rank 28th in the league with an awful 66 wRC+ and they have struck out 27.9% of the time as well. There is nothing overly remarkable about Ian Anderson, but he’s just shown to be a solid MLB caliber pitcher and his metrics reflect that this season: 3.42 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 26.1% kRate, 12.3% SwStr%, 1.18 WHIP, .281 opp wOBA, 51.7% Ground Ball% -- above average numbers across the board. He’ll have a difficult pathway to earning the win bonus since, ya know, that Jacob deGrom guy has a 0.69 ERA. But, if the Mets continue to struggle the way they have, a 20-25 DKFP/35-40 FDFP kind of outing should be in Anderson’s wheelhouse today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  I’d say the St. Louis Cardinals are the only stand out/obvious stack today simply due to the automatic Coors Field bump. I don’t believe the Colorado Rockies will be overly popular against a solid pitcher in Wainwright.

San Diego Padres vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

The Padres get a nod from me yet again despite the fact that Luis Castillo is looking like his old self lately. After a very shoddy start to the season, over his last five starts, Castillo is boasting a 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 25.6% kRate. One of those five starts also game against the Padres (on the road) where he held them in check for six full innings, allowing two earned runs on six hits and three walks. However, the Padres lineup simply has too much potential to ignore when they’re taking the field in Great American Ballpark, the #1 hitter’s park in the league this season. The Pads bats are also extremely hot right now and they lead the slate with a 155 wRC+, .400 wOBA, and .292 ISO over the last 14 days -- 165 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .265 ISO over the last week. If they do manage to jump on Castillo early, they’ll get some extra ABs against a lousy Reds bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

Speaking of bats that are on fire, the Brewers are coming off of a crazy come-from-behind win yesterday where they trailed 7-0 after the top of the first inning and went on to win 15-7. That was their third game in the last five where they racked up 10+ runs. They’ll draw a match-up with Wil Crowe, who is arguably the lowest quality starting pitcher on the slate. Crowe’s 6.50 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, and .379 opp wOBA all stand out as the worst marks among today’s starters. He’s shown some particularly awful reverse splits (7.20 ERA, .422 wOBA, .273 ISO, 2.88 HR/9 vs. RHBs), so I wouldn’t shy away from stacking up righty Brewer bats. Whether or not Milwaukee stays hot remains to be seen, but the opportunity is certainly there today against Crowe and a mediocre Pirates pen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

I predict the Giants will be fairly low-owned, but not because they’re in a bad match-up. They’re simply just going to go overlooked as most west coast teams often do. Merrill Kelly has actually been a bit of a tough customer when pitching at home this season where he has put up a 3.59 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, and .287 opp wOBA across 42.2 IP. But the Giants have some rock solid bats throughout that lineup and they have posted a 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks. On the season, their 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 5th and if Kelly doesn’t have his best stuff tonight, San Fran will take advantage.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Lamonte Wade Jr. | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

2B/OF/SS Josh Rojas | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Steven Duggar | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B Keston Hiura | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Michael Conforto | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

I’ve been a day early on some guys already this week so maybe Adames will change that trend. With my HR call today, I definitely wanted to take advantage of those previously mentioned poor reverse splits that Wil Crowe has shown this season (7.20 ERA, .422 wOBA, .273 ISO, 2.88 HR/9 vs. RHBs). Among the Brewers RHBs, Adames stands out the most to me when it comes to favorable righty-on-righty splits. He has a .332 wOBA and .173 ISO versus RHPs this season including a 16.3% HR/FB rate. Over his last 20 games, all four of his home runs have come against righties and he’s up to a .380 wOBA and .317 ISO in that span. I’ll look for him to keep those trends rolling against Crowe today.

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