Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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We’ve got a pretty ho-hum five game evening slate to kick off the workweek and the month of July. The first thing you’ll likely notice today: pitching options are very lackluster, so it seems this could be a very offensively driven set of games with plenty of dingers waiting to be hit. I’d say it’s more of a day to focus on GPPs for sure -- at least that's what my approach will be. At the time of this writing, there are no weather issues threatening any sort of delay or postponement. But it’s worth mentioning that game time temps will be between 85-90 degrees at first pitch in Texas, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Logan Allen (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k) | LHP | SD vs. SF

Allen will likely be the go-to spend up option today because it’s tough to turn down an opportunity to attack this Giants offense with a lefty pitcher. The Giants have been awful against LHPs this season with a .218 AVG, .267 wOBA, .114 ISO, and 64 wRC+ -- dead last in each category. They also offer up a solid amount of strikeouts with a 24.3% kRate. It’s a bit ludicrous to pay over $9k for a guy who is making just his third professional start but that’s just the hand we are dealt today. At the very least, Allen has performed well across his first two starts, garnering a win in both contests and allowing just two earned runs across 13 innings. He'll also be avoiding a DH today. The Padres are currently the heaviest favorites of the day with a -163 moneyline with the Giants possessing just a 3.6 implied run total.

Ryan Yarbrough (DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k) | LHP | TB vs. BAL

Usually I won’t look to participate in Tampa Bay’s “opener + innings eater” pitching carousel but the lack of options elsewhere will land me on Yarbrough as an SP2 target. It’s reported that he will see the bulk of the work today following Ryne Stanek’s one or two opening innings. Yarbrough hasn’t been incredible this year but he’s certainly been solid en route to a 7-3 record while maintaining a 0.99 WHIP -- the lowest mark among pitchers today. The strikeout upside may not be too apparent with his 18.4% kRate but Baltimore does strikeout 25.6% of the time against lefties. The Orioles are also a bottom ten offense against LHPs and as long as Yarbrough can manage around five innings of work, he could pay off his DFS salaries quite nicely and possibly position himself for a win.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Pitching Staff

Currently, there is no clear-cut starting option for Baltimore (Jimmy Yacabonis may serve as the opener) so the thought right now is that it’ll be one of those games where the Orioles bullpen is largely relied upon. That’s typically good news for opposing offenses. The O’s bullpen has been atrocious all year but, looking at their more recent numbers, over the last month they have a 6.99 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP while allowing 2.01 HR/9. Some of the hottest hitters over the last month in this Rays order include Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, Travis d’Arnaud, and Yandy Diaz -- all four have at least a .345 wOBA and 119 wRC+ in the last 30 days. Many of these Rays hitters can also be had for reasonable salaries in comparison to most guys in other top offenses today.

San Diego Padres vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP, San Francisco Giants)

The Padres are always one of my favorite teams to target in tournaments because, as often as they put up a two or three run stinker, it seems they explode for 10+ runs with several homers just as frequently. I prefer stacking them on the road away from the pitcher-friendly Petco Park but Jeff Samardzija represents a beatable match-up considering he’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last three starts (16 innings) paired with a sub-20% kRate on the year. Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are swinging some extremely hot bats lately (at least a 130 wRC+ rating for all three over the last month) and you also have to like the home run upside that Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes can bring to your lineups -- both hit for well over a .300 ISO in the month of June.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Joey Gallo (DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.3k) | OF | vs. LHP Jose Suarez

Getting some exposure to this game out in the Texas heat is probably a wise approach and I definitely won’t be letting the lefty on lefty match-up scare me off of Joey Gallo. He’s hitting LHPs extremely well this season to the tune of a .328 AVG, .470 wOBA, and .426 ISO on 48.6% Hard Contact. It may be a small sample size of just 25 at-bats but he has utterly destroyed LHPs at Globe Life Park this year -- .440 AVG, .600 wOBA, .640 ISO, and 62.5% Hard Contact with five bombs! Yes, five dingers in just 25 ABs off of lefties at GLP. Suarez is a 21-year-old pitcher who has struggled giving up the long ball in his 21 professional innings. He’s already allowed six homers resulting in a 2.57 HR/9 Rate. Against LHBs, he’s allowing a .267 ISO on 45.8% Hard Contact. Don’t fault me too much for playing it fairly safe and making Gallo my home run call of the day. 💣

Addison Russell (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k) | 2B/SS | vs. RHP Trevor Williams

There isn’t much exciting about rolling out Addison Russell but he provides some nice salary relief so you can pay up for bigger bats and he has been seeing the ball well in the past few games. He is hitting .390 over the last week with a .476 OBP. He won’t get a great spot in the order, likely seventh, but he’ll have a solid chance to contribute in an offense that averages 5.32 runs/game on the road this season and the match-up with Trevor Williams is a beatable one. 

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