Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 Weekend Edition - On Deck Podcast with Joe & Chris

• 5:18 Saving $ with Tanner Roark & Davies

• 7:57 Hill, Scherzer or Flaherty?

• 13:48 Snell on Sunday?

• 16:18 Bieber / Odorizzi

• 20:47 Sunday Afternoon Games

• 25:43 Betting Lines / HR Calls

Happy Sunday to all of you. I hope the first half of your weekend treated you well yesterday. We’ve got a solid ten game slate on tap this afternoon. There are plenty of big names on the hill today but some of those names are not living up to their typical expectations so far in 2019. Above all of them is a lesser known name who is currently pitching out of his mind right now, but we’ll talk a little about if we think it’s real or not. There should be plenty of offense today as well with the bottom tier of pitching looking a bit rough. Perhaps the most exciting news of the day is Yordan Alvarez, who is expected to be recalled and make his major league debut for the Houston Astros. We’ll get to him in today’s article as well. First, let’s look at the Vegas perspective:

Weather looks to be a non-factor. There are no threats of rain and no games that stand out from a temperature perspective. Most games are in the high 70s and low 80s so nothing to really try and take advantage of. The only weather related item that even remotely stood out to me is the projected double-digit winds blowing out in Cleveland this afternoon. It’s really not strong enough to make much of a difference though. We can play this slate straight-up.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell | DK: $9.8K, FD: $10.3K | LHP | @Boston

I never thought I'd see the day when we need to possibly consider Jake Odorizzi over Snell. On FanDuel, where Odorizzi is cheaper, I suppose there’s at least some argument. But on DraftKings, where Odorizzi is the most expensive pitcher, I just don’t see it. He’s been lights out, don’t get me wrong, but the surface numbers appear to be VERY deceiving. That 1.96 ERA looks amazing but it comes with a 4.04 SIERA, .240 BABIP, 38% hard contact rate allowed, and 50.4% fly balls allowed. His stat line right now screams “luck” and not “skill”. I don’t think it’s long before he starts coming back down to earth. What makes today difficult though is he does have basically the best match up possible against a Detroit lineup that ranks dead last against right-handed pitching with a .281 wOBA, .146 ISO, and 26.1% strikeout rate. Simply because of the match up, if you want to go with him today, I wouldn’t fault you as luck is very likely to be on his side yet again. However, if he’s truly going to be popular, I’ll gladly take shares of the reigning AL Cy Young award winner any day of the week to keep up with Odorizzi (and for significantly less money on DraftKings). The match up is much scarier but Boston isn’t exactly a model of consistency right now. Snell has a 2.58 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP, and massive 35% strikeout rate. He also has a .321 BABIP, only 31.8% fly balls and just 30.9% hard contact allowed. The opposite of Odorizzi, Snell screams “skill” and not “luck”. For what it’s worth, Snell was 3-0 in four starts against the Red Sox last season with a 0.98 ERA (3.38 xFIP) and 9.55 K/9.

Robbie Ray | DK: $10.6K, FD: $8.8K | LHP | @Toronto

I’m forced to talk about Robbie Ray here because of the massive price difference between the two sites. On DraftKings, Ray is the second most expensive pitcher on the board but on FanDuel he’s the fifth most expensive, $1,800 cheaper. With the double-digit strikeout upside he brings to the table almost any given night, it’s really difficult to ignore the potential ROI in this spot against a weak Toronto lineup struggling with left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays are 27th in wOBA at .285, 24th in ISO at .146, 27th with a 77 wRC+, and 15th with a 23.4% strikeout rate against lefties. Before you get too excited, let me remind you that Robbie Ray is probably the most volatile pitcher on the planet and he’s broken my heart in DFS more times than I care to admit. So, while the price (on FanDuel) and match up seem too good to be true, just remember nothing with Ray is ever guaranteed. With that caveat out of the way, it’s tough to ignore the 30.3% strikeout rate. He has six strikeouts or more in eight straight starts. His 3.70 xFIP is solid and he’s faced some really difficult opponents so far this season. In fact, in Ray’s 13 starts this season, only three times did he face a team with a record under .500 (Pittsburgh and San Francisco twice). Besides that, he’s faced the Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies each twice this season (both Rockies games were in Coors). He’s also faced the Rays, Braves, and Rangers. Not exactly pushover teams. If he can minimize the walks and stay out of trouble, he’s got incredible upside potential against a weak opponent. His price on FanDuel could be a tremendous value if he comes through. Don’t rule him out on DraftKings either. With people either paying up for Odorizzi or paying down for Snell or even Syndergaard, Ray could go completely under the radar.

Max Fried | DK: $7.1K, FD: $8K | LHP | @Miami

Apparently I like the left-handed pitchers today. Opposite of Robbie Ray, Fried appears to be under priced on DraftKings at just $7.1K despite a match up with the Marlins in Miami which is an extreme pitcher’s park. The Marlins are next to last in just about every major category against left-handed pitching including a .268 wOBA and .113 ISO this season. Their only saving grace is they do seem to have some plate discipline (probably because that’s the only way they’ll ever get on base) with only a 20% strikeout rate. Fried is pitching admirably in the Atlanta rotation right now with a 7-3 record in 12 starts. His 4.03 SIERA is slightly above his 3.68 ERA but not enough to cause a major concern about regression. I do wish the strikeout upside was a bit better (currently a 21.1% strikeout rate) but he’ll make up for that (hopefully) by not giving up many hits and even fewer runs against this weak lineup. He has an outstanding 53.1% ground ball rate which should help him keep this game well in control. Atlanta is a comfortable -135 favorite (though their match up isn't easy against Pablo Lopez) and this game has a very low total of just 7.5. Fried has to be near the top of your list for SP2 in cash today.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Ryan Carpenter | LHP | Detroit Tigers

It still sounds weird to say out loud (or type in this case) but the Minnesota Twins are one of (if not the) top teams in baseball. They are smoking left-handed pitching right now ranking first in wOBA (.366), fifth in ISO (.206), and second in wRC+ (130). Today, they will face Ryan Carpenter who’s hanging around on the major league roster in Detroit despite a 6.23 ERA (5.35 xFIP), just 15.8% strikeouts, and allowing 42.1% hard contact. I don’t see many scenarios where Carpenter gets through this one cleanly, so the Twins are looking pretty appealing here. Rosario (.390 wOBA, .294 ISO, 42.9% hard hits vs. LHP), Polanco (.375 wOBA, 47.1% hard hits vs. LHP), and Cron (.489 wOBA, .500 ISO vs. LHP) all make the top of my list. The next tier would be Buxton (.433 wOBA, .222 ISO, 45% hard hits vs LHP), Schoop (60% hard hits vs LHP), and Sano (barely faced any lefties this season but we know he has power) are firmly in place as well. Let's not forget about Nelson Cruz. He might be showing signs that the end of his career is near but he made his career by smashing left-handed pitching.

Houston Astros vs. Dylan Bundy | RHP | Baltimore Orioles

Hey! It’s Dylan Bundy day! Against the Astros no less. Bundy will take his 4.46 SIERA, 44.3% fly ball rate, and 14 home runs allowed (in 12 starts) up against the other team you could argue is the best in baseball right now. Houston is an impressive 23-9 at home this season and 7-3 in their last ten games. They have a .359 wOBA, a .221 ISO, and 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching while only striking out 18% of the time. The Astros are banged up right now, no question, but they are still a dangerous team and they are calling up reinforcements today with Yordan Alvarez expected to make his debut. In addition to Alvarez (who is only available on DraftKings), Bregman has a .422 ISO and .316 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and Michael Brantley has a .409 wOBA and .252 ISO. Don’t shy away from this team even though they are missing several key players.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Steven Brault | LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates

Tough ask for Steven Brault to make a spot start against this difficult Brewers lineup. An even tougher ask to have him do it on the road away from pitcher friendly PNC Park. There is nothing in the numbers today that would suggest Brault can hold his own in this match up. He has a 5.46 SIERA, 1.64 WHIP, 18.4% strikeouts and 13.3% walks. He allows over 40% hard contact and has given up five home runs in just four starts. Yelich is “worse” against lefties but still the top option on the board with a .366 wOBA and .294 ISO and 48.8% hard-hits. Moustakas (.335 wOBA, .218 ISO), Grandal (.380 wOBA, .220 ISO, 59.5% hard-hits), Cain (.362 wOBA, .269 ISO), and Braun (.240 ISO, 43.2% hard-hits) are all great options in this spot. Thames, surprisingly, has a .425 wOBA against lefties with 40% hard-hits. Orlando Arcia has a .345 ISO and 46.7% hard-hits. You can basically look at anyone in this lineup today. Grandal with that 59.5% hard-hit rate, is REALLY jumping out at me on my stat sheet today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Yordan Alvarez | DK: $3.6K, FD: N/A | OF | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP)

Alright, I’ve been burying the lead this entire article but it’s time to finally talk about this kid. Alvarez is being called up with so many Astros' injuries and I’m honestly surprised it took this long. The Astros third ranked prospect leads all minor league levels in home runs (23), RBI (71), and total bases (158). He’s slashing .343/.443/.742 through 56 games. He’s the 23rd ranked overall prospect according to MLB.com rankings. He’s dirt cheap on DraftKings today so get him while you can. Also, if you’re a season long player, pick him up or spend some FAAB on him. Check out this MiLB.com article if you want more details. 

Renato Nunez | DK: $4K, FD: $3.5K | 1B | vs. Wade Miley (LHP)

Nunez is a lone bright spot on another dismal season for the last place 20-44 Baltimore Orioles. He’s in the top 90% for barreled balls against left-handed pitching over the past two weeks with three and he’s in the top 80% for average exit velocity against left-handed pitching during that same span at 93.6 mph. In his last 20 starts against a lefty, he has an absurd 1.128 wOBA+ISO and a 3.48 FP/PA. The downside here is that Miley has reverse splits, so he actually prefers to face right-handed bats. Still, I’m siding with Nunez on this one. He’s got a ton of upside for the price today.

Eduardo Escobar | DK: $5.2K, FD: $3.9K | 3B | vs. Clayton Richard (LHP)

I did not talk about the Diamondbacks at all but they were very close to the top of my list for stacking today and have several interesting pieces on this slate. Escobar in particular is standing out. The switch hitting third basemen has a .947 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts against left-handed pitching and a 3.25 FP/PA. Even more impressive is his massive 52.3% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. If you have some extra money today, this may be a good place to invest.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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