By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s a good day to have a great day! Depending on your site of choice, a little Thursday five or six-gamer will be waiting on deck. The FanDuel main slate will include the WAS @ MIA game which will start at 6:40 ET. For the sake of consistency, as usual, the five mutually shared games between DK and FD will be the primary focus of today’s newsletter.

On the surface, this appears to be a very balanced small slate. There are good pitching options with equally good hitting/stack options and there are a couple of teams standing out as strong leverage plays as well. There won’t be much to worry about in the way of bad weather either. That will be a welcomed change of pace because I know some folks have been burned by some washouts and long delays this week. Let’s dig into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

As noted in the intro, there will be no PPD risks on this slate!

PIT @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warm-ish with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIN

Cole is the obvious play of the day and ownership will undoubtedly reflect that. It’ll be hard to pass on Cole in cash unless you’d just prefer to load up on big bats, but the Cole train has been full steam ahead for over a month-and-a-half now. In his last eight starts dating back to April 24th (53.1 IP), Cole has recorded a 2.03 ERA, 2.13 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .191 opp AVG, and a 33.3% kRate. It’s tough to get better results than that over an eight-game sample size. In that time, his floor has been 22 DKFP/40 FDFP. Now, the level of competition he faced during that stretch wasn’t brutal at all -- Orioles (twice), Tigers, Royals, a so-so Rangers team, a strikeout-heavy Rays team, and a struggling White Sox team made up seven of his last eight starts.

The Twins check in with a 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season, ranking 7th. They’ve been even better lately with a 139 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks while hitting .287 in that stretch with a .359 wOBA and .194 ISO. They do strikeout a little more than 23% of the time, so Cole could certainly rack up some Ks in this game. Just be aware that this will be one of his most difficult match-ups in quite some time. The Twins are still left holding a slate-low 3.5 implied run total while the Yankees bring -210 odds to win to the table.

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.1k | @ LAA

Pivetta was looking like a total gas can at the start of the season but he has been locked in lately and now faces the reeling Los Angeles Angels who are already without some notable bats (Ward & Rendon) and may not have Mike Trout (groin) in the lineup for a second consecutive day. Over his previous six starts (41.0 IP), Pivetta has posted a tremendous 1.32 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, .153 opp AVG, and a 24.2% kRate. In that same stretch, he has come away with a 3.70 xFIP, so some regression may be overdue, but today may not be that day. As you might expect, the Angels have been failing miserably on offense. In the last week, they’ve recorded a .181 AVG with a .220 wOBA, 40 wRC+, and 26.2% kRate. Just terrible, terrible, terrible. The Angels will turn it around eventually but right now they’re just not hitting, not healthy, not winning, and they even resorted to using Nickelback songs as walk-up music last night hoping that would somehow help? Whose idea was that? Sad times out in Anaheim.

Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. OAK

Pilkington steps in as the most appealing spend-down option at pitcher today. After working mostly in a long relief role to start his season, he will be making his fourth consecutive start today. He’s coming off of, by far, his best performance of the season against the Royals last Wednesday where he threw five scoreless innings on 91 pitches, allowed five hits, two walks, and struck out eight batters while earning the win. He has shown legit strikeout stuff this season with a 29.1% kRate and 15.3% Swinging Strike Rate. The big plus with Pilkington today, aside from the cheap DFS salaries, would be the match-up. In the last two weeks against LHPs (142 PA), the A’s are hitting just .205 with a .245 wOBA, .083 ISO, and 62 wRC+. There are really only two or three guys on the A’s roster that have been effective against lefties this season (Laureano, Murphy, K. Smith). Otherwise, this lineup should provide plenty of Ks and other easy outs. The Guardians are big -178 favorites today and Oakland has just a 3.8 implied run total.

Also Consider:

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. PIT

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Bubic stands out as the lowest quality starter taking the mound today, evidenced by his slate-worst 9.33 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, 5.91 SIERA, 2.07 WHIP, 50% HardHit%, and 25.0% HR/FB Rate. Just bad all-around. The O’s have not been great across the entire season against LHPs (.287 wOBA, 86 wRC+) but they’ve been mashing ‘em lately. It’s only a 79 PA sample size, but in the last two weeks against LHPs, the Orioles are hitting .324 with a massive .443 wOBA, .294 ISO, and 196 wRC+! The Royals have had to go pretty deep into their bullpen over the last couple of days so they could be a bit overtaxed heading into this game. It’s a bullpen that has been terrible lately to begin with. In the last two weeks, Royals relievers have combined for an MLB worst 5.64 xFIP, 5.26 SIERA, and 1.78 WHIP while striking out just 14% of hitters. After getting rained out yesterday, the O’s bats should be ready to show some pop today.

Favorite BAL Bats: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander | Sneaky Bat: Roughned Odor

Atlanta Braves vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

Hopefully the streaking Braves saved some hits in reserve after yesterday’s offensive onslaught against the A’s. The ATL bats have come alive as of late and, as a team, they’ve posted a .357 wOBA, .228 ISO, and 127 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Brubaker has had a decent enough season but he’s not a guy to necessarily shy away from. On the year, Brubaker has a subpar 4.70 ERA, 4.40 xFIP, and a 1.45 WHIP. About 68% of his pitch mix consists of sinkers and sliders and there are a few Braves that have been crushing those pitches this season. Behind Brubaker will be a Pirates bullpen that ranks as a bottom 10 unit on the season, but they have been playing better in recent weeks, so we’ll have to wait and see if that trend continues.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

The easiest pathway to being way different from the field on a small slate is to simply stack some bats against the highest-owned pitcher. That will almost certainly be Gerrit Cole today. This is of course not a safe route and I wouldn’t be going crazy with a full five-man stack here. But the Twins have been doing a ton of damage against RHPs in the last couple of weeks: .287 AVG, .359 wOBA, .194 ISO, 139 wRC+ with 16 home runs. Cole has struggled slightly more when pitching on the road this season. His walk rate and WHIP have both taken a noticeable uptick on the road while his strikeout rate dips from 33.6% (home) to 28.9% (away). I’m probably grasping at straws trying to find any reason to stack MIN bats against Cole but I thought that was at least worth mentioning. The Yankees bullpen also hasn’t been particularly good recently, more average than anything. Three of their primary relievers have also thrown at least 33 pitches within the last two days and likely won’t be available to pitch tonight. So even if Cole does his thing and keeps the Twins bats in check, perhaps they can come through with a little late-inning magic.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Gary Sanchez | Sneaky Bat: Trevor Larnach

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

2B Roughned Odor | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Austin Hays | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

When I have a little extra time while writing up these newsletters, I like to dig into some pitch mix data and how it may affect the BvP outcome. In this case, Kris Bubic throws a higher-than-average amount of curveballs and changeups. Combined, those two pitches have made up over 50% of Bubic’s arsenal. Only about 20% of the pitches Austin Hays has seen this season have been curveballs or changeups but against those pitches, he’s accounted for a lofty .297 ISO, which leads all other Orioles hitters. Bubic is allowing 2.45 HR/9 this season with a 25.0% HR/FB Rate. While Hays has not hit lefties particularly well this season, he does have a 45.5% Flyball Rate against them. So, if he can get under one against Bubic, I like the chances of it leaving the ballpark today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the stack section, JT Brubaker throws mostly sinkers and sliders -- a little over 68% of the time. Acuna is seeing those pitches extremely well this season -- he’s hitting .365 against those pitches overall, and that average jumps up to .421 when playing at home. Acuna enters this game having either multiple hits or an extra base hit in five of his last seven games so I’ll happily take the over on 1.5 total bases for Acuna today at near even money.

Konnor Pilkington to Record the Win | +100 (PointsBet) | 2.0 units

The A’s are currently riding an eight-game losing streak and are 1-11 over their last 12 games. The Guardians step into this game as major -178 favorites and they are also 5-1 in their last six home games. Pilkington will toe the rubber for Cleveland today, marking his fourth start of the season. While getting stretched out to join the normal rotation, he has progressively thrown 83, 87, and (most recently) 91 pitches heading into today’s game. Roughly 90 pitches should be his expected baseline leash until proven otherwise and that would be enough of a workload to make it through at least five full innings against this bad Oakland A’s team. Assuming the Guardians have the lead at that point, which seems quite likely, an official win could very well be in the cards for Pilkington this evening.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!