Top MLB DFS Plays 6/9 | Handling the Current Pitching Dilemmas

June 09, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Happy Humpday, people! A dozen games land on today’s main slate and the current outlook would set this one up as a high-scoring evening with plenty of runs on the horizon. Currently, there are seven games that possess a total of at least nine runs and ten individual teams with at least a 4.6 implied run total. There are also a few game locations with some weather concerns (see weather section below) but, overall, I believe we should expect all twelve games to play nine complete innings today. That is the hope, anyway. Late starts or perhaps some in-game delays aren’t off the table, though.

Baseball is in a bit of an odd state at the moment with all of the controversy surrounding pitchers using substances to increase their grip/control of the baseball (which affects spin rate and pitch movement). Per ESPN, the 2021 season currently has 2,024 more strikeouts than hits, which is abnormal to say the least. With the aggressive crackdown against these substances going on across the league, some hurlers are seeing noticeably decreased spin rates… coincidence? Seems doubtful. I don’t necessarily blame guys for using these substances to manipulate the ball and give themselves an edge. When you’re paid based on your performance on the mound and plenty of other guys are definitely using those substances without facing any repercussions, why put yourself at a disadvantage by *not* using the stuff (see; the MLB steroid era)? I’m mentioning this because, for the time being, it’s going to be hard to trust some of these pitchers in DFS… especially if they’re going to carry a five figure salary. As a temporary measure, I’m going to personally exercise a bit more caution when spending up on pitchers until we get some more clarity on this whole ordeal. Hopefully that clarity comes sooner rather than later.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

A few games carry some concern but fortunately, they’re all pretty much loaded towards the top of the slate and are scheduled to begin at or before 7:10 ET. The primary forecasts to track as we get closer to lock include: ATL @ PHI, NYM @ BAL, and MIL @ CIN

LAD @ PIT: We’re looking at about a 15-20% chance of rain throughout this game. The current hope is that the wet stuff stays north of the ballpark or just light rainfall affects the Pittsburgh area. Expectations are that this game should play relatively cleanly.

ATL @ PHI: There is a moderately high chance of rain (30-40%) which clears up later into the evening. A late start and play seem to be a likely scenario here but once they get going, there should not be any stoppages (hopefully). However, any delay could range from around 30 minutes to multiple hours. Definitely check on the outlook here closer to lock -- a postponement is potentially in play.

NYM @ BAL: The same system which may affect Philly sets up a similar story in Baltimore. Coverage does seem lighter in this game, but a late start and play are also on the table here. Or perhaps they begin on time and just play through some rain, as long as it remains relatively light.

SEA @ DET: Low-end chance of a passing shower. Nothing very concerning. Temps in the low-80s at first pitch. Very slight bump to bats.

MIL @ CIN: Some forecasts are showing most of the rain pushing out of the Cincinnati area by the time time of the first pitch (7:10 ET). Others show around a 35-40% chance of rain throughout this game. From what I’ve seen, expectations are they get this game in without too much risk of postponement but double-check closer to lock.

NYY @ MIN: Temperatures around 90 degrees throughout the game. Edge goes to the hitters.

CLE @ STL: 10-15% chance of a light shower but doubtful it causes any stoppages.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Preface: After you get past Gerrit Cole ($11.2k/$11.5k) and Lance Lynn ($10.4k, $10.8k), DraftKings and FanDuel has some wildly differing pitcher salaries for this slate. Adjust your stance on the following guys based on which site you primarily play on. I usually do my best to stay unbiased but on days like this where pricing is just way too inconsistent on many guys, I do break the tie by leaning towards DraftKings pricing.

Casey Mize (RHP) | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SEA

Mize is case number one of these extreme salary differences, but considering his performance as of late I believe you consider him on both sites (obviously, more so on DK where he will be extremely popular). In his last seven starts dating back to April 29th, Mize has pitched 44.0 innings with a strong 2.45 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 23.1% kRate, 0.89 WHIP, .172 AVG, and .247 wOBA. He’s been good for around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP in most of those games. His best performance in that stretch came against this same Mariners team in which he pitched a career-high 7.2 innings on 95 pitches, racked up seven strikeouts, and allowed just one earned run -- good for 29.7 DKFP/51 FDFP. Seattle’s .209 AVG against RHPs is the second lowest in the MLB and they’re striking out 25.8% of the time (8th most). At some point, this steady flow of consistent fantasy production will come to a halt, but all indications point towards another solid outing on the horizon tonight for Mize.

Austin Gomber (LHP) | DK: $6k, FD: $9.5k | @ MIA

And here we have the largest price discrepancy. Given his production, Gomber is egregiously underpriced on DraftKings (should be around $8k or so at this point) but perhaps a bit overpriced on FanDuel. As such, I believe the Mize + Gomber combo will be very popular on DraftKings and I have a hard time arguing against it considering how many big bats that would allow you to the roster. Both guys (Gomber in particular, due to salary) will probably be more GPP-centric targets on FanDuel, but it really isn’t that far-fetched to envision either one ending the slate with a top one or two fantasy score at the position.

With all of that said, Gomber has been fairly solid in the vast majority of his starts this season, even when taking the mound at Coors Field where he boasts a 1.33 ERA. However, he is of course on the road today, but at a terrific pitcher’s park (Marlins Park ranks #2 in terms of park factor favoring pitchers this season). Gomber’s 5.44 ERA on the road may bring forth some concern but his 3.57 xFIP (on the road) tells us that he has simply gotten very unlucky. The Marlins 28.2% kRate against lefties this season is the 5th highest in the league and they possess just an 88 wRC+ (ranks 23rd) with a .231 AVG and .292 wOBA. We should expect another promising performance out of Colorado lefty today.

Shane McClanahan (LHP) | DK: $8.2k, FD: $6.6k | vs. WAS

The downside with McClanahan is the fact that the Rays haven’t let him throw more than 80 pitches in any of his seven starts this season. However, if they ever extend those restrictions unexpectedly (maybe today?) to around 90 or so pitches, McClanahan could be a tournament winner. His numbers for the year are very promising. He’s rocking a so-so 4.11 ERA but his 2.85 xFIP and 30.4% kRate both trail only Gerrit Cole (2.34 xFIP, 36.5% kRate) on this slate. More impressively, McClanahan’s 18.1% Swinging Strike Rate easily leads all pitchers today and lands in insanely elite territory. The only two starting pitchers in the MLB with a higher SwStr% than McClanahan are Corbin Burnes (18.5%) and Jacob deGrom (21.2%). For that sole reason, you can see why I wish the Rays would give this kid more extensive run in games. The Nationals currently hold a slate-low 3.4 implied run total and over the last two weeks, they have only a .272 wOBA, .100 ISO, 69 wRC+, and a 25.8% kRate. Tropicana Field has been the #1 most pitcher-friendly park this season and in three home starts McClanahan is averaging 18.4 DKFP/30.3 FDFP… and again, that’s coming on about 60-70 pitches per game. He’ll be risky, just because it’s probably likely he continues to hover around 70ish pitches. Even so, he could return value, especially at his $6,600 price tag on FanDuel.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ I really like the Red Sox bats today, but so does just about everyone... Boston chalk bust incoming? Eh, we'll see. Behind them, I’d consider some hitters on both LA teams, the Dodgers and Angels, as strong, “safer” options to stack up.

New York Mets vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Point blank, Matt Harvey is bad. In his last five starts dating back to May 12th, Harvey has a 12.96 ERA (though, a surprisingly not horrendous 4.62 xFIP), with a 2.28 WHIP, .388 AVG, .470 wOBA, and a 2.70 HR/9 Rate. Yes, he has gotten very unlucky in that span, evidenced by that 4.62 xFIP as well as the .456 BABIP against him, but even when things are “working well” for Harvey (by his standards), he isn’t finding much success. After a rocky start to the year, the Mets offense has been picking it up lately. Over the last two weeks, their 130 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 2nd in baseball and they’re hitting .274 as a team with a .355 wOBA during that stretch. They hung seven runs across 4.1 innings on Harvey the last time they faced him. He’ll be backed by a fairly average Orioles bullpen and this game will take place at Camden Yards, the #6 most hitter-friendly park this season. With all of that in mind, there is some obvious potential with rolling out a Mets stack today.

New York Yankees vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

After far too many zero, one, and two-run offensive performances across the last month or so, the Yankees plated eight runs in their game yesterday in Minnesota -- the most runs they’ve scored since May 15th. An early sign of things turning around? Maybe. They’re still missing a couple key pieces with Luke Voit and Aaron Hicks sidelined, but for the most part, the Yankees are easing their way back to full strength. They’ll get a shot at Randy Dobnak today, who allows a slate-high 58.2% HardHit% alongside a .340 wOBA/.380 xwOBA. Game time temperatures will also be around 90 degrees, which should help fly balls carry just a bit farther. Until they start churning out strong results more consistently, the Yanks will be more of a tournament stack. But I doubt they see crazy high ownership and the run upside is there today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Minnesota Twins vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

Maybe this is pushing the envelope too far and getting too cute… but Cole is one of those pitchers who is currently in the spotlight when it comes seeing a decrease in his spin rate recently. Whether or not that is related to these substances pitchers are coming under scrutiny for is unknown… but there is room for assumptions to be made, eh? He has posted a 4.30 ERA over his last four starts and has seen a bit of a dip in his kRate as well (27.7% in that stretch). The Twins have been a top 10 offense against RHPs this season (104 wRC+, ranks 9th) and will also get those 90ish degree temperatures to hit in. They would certainly be a low-owned contrarian stack option as they go up against the slate’s top-priced pitcher. Expect plenty of “spin rate” talk during Cole’s time on the mound tonight.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

2B/3B Jean Segura | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), ATL

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

3B/SS Harold Castro | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

OF Derek Hill | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Well, I originally had Alex Verdugo as my guy but he’ll apparently be riding the pine today. My audible is going to be to tail KC Bubba on his Rafael Devers home run call. The stars simply align too well. Devers has hit 13 HRs against RHPs this season (151 ABs) while producing a .358 ISO and 54.3% HardHit%. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 96.9 mph vs. RHPs over the last 14 days (95th percentile). It’s only a 33 at-bat sample size, but against LHBs, Odorizzi has given up a .443 wOBA, .286 ISO, and 40.9% HardHit% this season. Odorizzi actually has positive reverse splits across his entire career and has actually had more issues with RHBs, but that doesn’t seem to be the case up to this point in his 2021 campaign. Devers is in a prime spot to smash one out today.

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